Get Me Melky

I'll admit it: I'm a sucker for high batting average guys. Mix in a little bit of plate discipline and some opposite field ability and I go completely gaga. Get on base at a .390 clip and I'll probably do your laundry too.

Get me Melky Cabrera.

Yeah, the guy tested positive for a known banned substance. Naturally, the knee jerk reaction is "he's a cheater, his stats are fraudulent and everything he's done over the last two years should be wiped clean." And it's a logical reaction given that most of sports fans in our twenties have had our childhood memories tainted by the steroid cloud. And while I don't agree with that notion, I'm not going to sit here and praise the guy for his honesty either. He's a cheater, an admitted cheater, but a cheater nonetheless. But man would I like to see his redemption story take place in red pinstripes.

A little Melky history for those who aren't aware... He was signed out of the Dominican Republic at the age of 16, was called up to the Yankees at the age of 20, was and a full time player (or at the very least, the more popular part of a platoon) by the age of 21. The guys who have managed a progression like that and stuck in the majors over the past decade or so can be counted on two hands. While his development time in he minors was limited, one thing was clear: he could hit. Said AA coach Bill Masse prior to his call up:

"The thing about Melky is, he has such hand-eye coordination that if there's a fastball up around his chin, he can still hit, and if there is a breaking ball that bounces in the dirt before the plate, he may hit that, too."

Baseball America also chimed in back in 2005 with the following:

"Strengths: Cabrera’s swing and hand-eye coordination make him the best hitter for average in the system. One club official compared his offensive game to Jose Vidro's. Cabrera has a quick stroke from both sides of the plate, with quick hands that allow him to catch up to quality fastballs. He also punishes breaking balls and lashes line drives from gap to gap. He has an above-average throwing arm."

So here's a raw, yet unpolished, talent from the Dominican Republic who is rushed to the majors to save a flailing Yankees outfield who performs averagely for a few seasons. He's traded to Atlanta and performs dismally (this is the guy who once threw a ball backwards). So bad in fact that he's outright released at the end of 2010. So after a string of failures, and at the still young age of 26 (to put things into perspective, Ryan Howard's first full season in the majors was at the age of 26... Melky had already had nearly 2,400 ABs by the time he was 26!), he drops 20 lbs, finds a groove at the plate with Kansas City, and follows it up with 3/4 of All-Star / MVP caliber baseball in San Francisco.

Then BOOM: Positive for Testosterone. Season over, free agency payday gone, career tainted... says the casual fan.

Luckily, I'm here to tell you he's worth the risk.

• He's not the first "damaged" product to play in Philadelphia. Brett Myers' transgressions were forgiven when he led the team to their first playoff appearance in 15 years, JC Romero's return from PED suspension was embraced (I own a "free JC" tshirt!), and I can't tell you one Phillies fan who doesn't want to see Pete Rose in the Hall of Fame.. If anyone can appreciate a comeback, it's Philadelphia fans.

• He'll come at a discount. The happiest guys in baseball right now: Michael Bourn and Shane Victorino. The Phillies aren't the only team looking for outfielders next year. Bourn is expected to be the cream of the crop despite the fact that he strikes out a ton, he'll be north of 30, and has seen his biggest weapon (SBs) nearly cut in half this year with one month to play. Nevertheless, he's still expected to something in the neighborhood of 5 years, $80M.  Victorino's piggy bank will be slightly less stout, but still out of the Phillies price range (in both years and dollars). Melky? He'll be looking for an opportunity to clear his name. It's virtually unprecedented that a player hitting his peak tests positive for PEDS before signing a long term deal. No one knows for sure how the market will unfold, but all indications are that teams aren't going to give a 4-5 year deal to a guy who is coming off a suspension. At age 28, he still has the opportunity to play out 2013 on a one year deal, prove that his numbers aren't a fluke, and sign that long term high dollar deal that he was on pace for as recent as last week.

• He's young by free agent outfield standards. Face it, our outfield is barren with the departure of Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence. Pencil Domonic Brown in right field for 2013 and you're still left with two holes. Cross you fingers that you can get away with some sort of Nate Schierholtz/John Mayberry platoon in one of those holes. Hell, you can even beg Juan Pierre to stick around for pennies on the dollar again. But the outfield is still mighty shaky. Scan the list of free agent outfielders for guys under 30, here's what you get: B.J. Upton, Delmon Young, and Melky. That's it. Trade for a young outfielder? What trade chips of value are left? With an infield that averages about 34 years old, your outfield has got to be young. Even if he can't be retained long term, the Phillies core isn't getting any younger. The Phils have only one or two more shots at making a run with the team they have in place. Jimmy Rollins is your lead off hitter, why not pair him with the best #2 hitter in baseball this season and hope the unjury gods are on your side for a change in 2013.

• Isn't it possible that we're giving too much credit to the PEDs? I'm not a sabremetric geek, but something doesn't quite add up. Melky's power numbers aren't particularly gaudy this season. Okay, so this is the part where I get a little nerdy on you... His HR/FB percentage is less than it was in both 2011 and 2009 and his line drive percentage is right here with his career norms. The percentage of his hits that fall for extra bases is less than it was in each of the past three years. So what's different? Batting average on balls in play. His BABIP is an obnoxious and improbable .379. That means that when Melky hits the ball between the lines, it's going to land for a hit of some sort 38% of the time. That's 70 points higher than his career average! Whether it be the spacious outfield in San Francisco allowing more balls to fall in, an improved batting eye, just plain dumb luck, or some combination of the three, balls that come off Melky's bat have gotten him on base at an amazing pace. His ground ball to fly ball ratio is a career high 1.09 suggesting even further that it's the ability to drive the ball hard on the ground that has helped his number spike rather than a Bonds like power binge. 

Sure when you see his .346/.390/.516 stat line with career highs across the board, red flags are raised. But we're talking about a guy who is reaching his prime offensive age, has moved beyond the accusations of laziness that plagued him in the past, and whose metric indicate not just a spike in power, but a steady increase in hitting ability. Maybe he's a bust next year and washes out of the game. Maybe he goes onto another decade of hitting .340. Given the narrow window of opportunity we have in front of us and the potential payoff, I'm willing to make that $10M gamble for a season or two.

Five Guys The Phillies Were Fools To Let Go

"C'mon, Pat... It's been like 3 months since your last blog entry and you're going to throw out a cookie cutter piece like this?"

Yes, it's been too long, but seeing how blogging doesn't pay the bills and the job that DOES keep a roof over my head has been so demanding, I've had to settle for venting in 160 character or less blurbs on twitter. Besides, I've given full Blogging privileges to at least four other dudes and I know for a fact that they've been swimming in free time!

Back to the point at hand... The Phillies are a dozen games out of the division, most of my fantasy baseball teams are barely treading water, and every prediction I had for the season has already gone down the drain. So naturally, it's time for second guessing!

The Phillies woes in 2012 have been well pronounced. You don't need me to tell you that they've come up short on offense, pitching, defense, and coaching. But what I can do is remind you of a handful of guys that if were still wearing Phillies uniforms, the season may look a little brighter. There's the obvious guys like Gio Gonzalez who we unloaded in the failed Freddy Garcia experiment. And then there's Brett Myers who has proven to be an effective starter and closer since leaving Philadelphia. And there's a slew of prospects who have been traded away or otherwise unloaded in recent years. But I'd like to focus on some of the names that don't always come to mind when you think of what could have been...

Ryan Vogelsong - RHP - San Francisco Giants
In a rotation that includes two Cy Young award winners, a $140M man, and a 22 year old budding star, who would have expected that a 34 year old who was pitching in Japan just a few years ago is the ace of the staff. Following a few years of ball in Japan, the Phillies wisely were the first to kick the tires on Vogelsong. He bounced between starter and the bullpen for the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs with limited success and was released mid 2010. Since then he's gone 23-12 with a 2.51 ERA for the Giants. Sometimes a prospect is overlooked by an organization, but what happened with Vogelsong was a flat out mistake. A guy in his mid thirties doesn't just turn on a light switch and figure out how to play. The raw talent had to be there from the start and the Giants succeeded where the Phillies failed at unleashing it. Here's a guy that immediately upon signing with a new team went on to pitch in the all star game and follow it up with a CY Young caliber season.  AND HE WAS IN OUR GRASP!

Jason Grilli - RHP - Pittsburgh Pirates
I know what you're thinking: "Who?" What has been the Phillies biggest weakness in 2012? A shaky bullpen. With Jose Contreras, Michale Stutes, and David Herndon making early season exits to the DL and the Chad Qualls experiment not working out as planned, the Phillies have been forced to piecemeal their bullpen together with AAAA ballplayers and an array of young arms. Meanwhile, on the other side of the state, Jason Grilli has made a name for himself as one of the top setup men in baseball.  But just last year he was wearing the uniform of a Phillies affiliate as he pitched in Lehigh Valley to the tune of a 1.93 ERA. Come July, he was released by the Phillies due to an opt out clause that allowed him to walk if another team wanted to add him to their major league roster. Grilli has excelled in Pittsburgh as an excellent bridge to Joel Hanrahan. He's pitching to a 2.66 ERA through 40.2 innings with a K/9 of 13.9. Even worse, he's only making about $1M. Just this week, Grilli finally proved he was human by giving up his first 8th inning lead of the season. The Phillies gave up an 8th inning lead in game 3 of the season.

Chad Qualls - RHP - Pittsburgh Pirates
Clearly I'm off my rocker with this pick, but hear me out. Sure, Qualls was a complete bust in a Phillies uniform. But I'm not looking at Chad Qualls the player, I'm looking at Chad Qualls the trade chip. When he was released by the Phillies, the Yankees swooped in and gobbled him up. After pitching much the same way he had in Philadelphia, New York shopped him around the league. Low and behold, Chad Qualls turned into third baseman Casey McGehee. McGehee has struggled this year and last, but he's still in his 20s and only two years removed from a .285 23 HR 104 RBI campaign. His first year of arbitration eligibility isn't even until next season. But most importantly, he plays third base! You know, that black hole on the left side of the infield that the Kevin Fransden is currently guarding! With a dreadful free agent market for third basemen, the Phillies are either going to have to convert a player to the position or get creative with trades. What's more creative than the Yankees turning a 33 year old dead armed Chad Qualls into a hitter capable of 20+ HR seasons on the cheap?

Scott Podsednik - OF - Boston Red Sox
Despite his impressive spring, Scott Podsednik lost his battle with Juan Pierre for the Phillies 4th outfielder job. Moving onto the Red Sox, Scotty Pods managed to hit .385 with extra base power and swipe 6 bags in his brief 73 ABs. Not to say that Juan Pierre hasn't been a better piece than I expected, but a healthy Podsednik is Pierre Plus. Even better, the Red Sox managed to flip him to the Arizona Diamondbacks for relief pitcher Craig Breslow, THEN picked him back up when the Diamondbacks released him. So the Phillies essentially let a better version of Juan Pierre escape with zero compensation and the Red Sox turned him into a quality relief pitcher AND Scott Podsednik!

Kyle Lohse - RHP - St Louis Cardnials
Remember him? Of course you do, he struck out 7 Phillies and pitched 7 innings of 1 run ball against us just last night! What you might not remember, though, is that there was a time when the Phillies big mid season splash didn't turn into the Cliff Lees of the world, but instead they were Kyle Lohse. Newsflash, though, Lohse has outperformed Lee this season! As a key cog that got the Phillies back into the playoffs in 2007 Lohse pitched average. But he was granted free agency at the end of the season as the Phillies chose to go with Adam Eaton and Kyle Kendrick in their rotation start 2008 (remind me again how we managed to win a World Series...). Lohse has been paid nearly identical money as Joe Blanton over the past two years and has outperformed him in every category. This year he's 12-2 with a 2.72 ERA and with no real front runner for NL Cy Young, he has the potential to be in the discussion.