Am I Drinking the Phillies Kool Aid?

An interesting thing happened to me this week. I was accused of drinking the Phillies Kool Aid too much. Me. Kool Aid. The guy who has hurled every expletive in the book at Ryan Howard and the guys who signed him to a ridiculous extension. Kool Aid.

Apparently, the fact that I don't believe the signing of Marlon Byrd is the end of the world means that me and Ruben Amaro Jr. are BFFs and we will be getting matching charms that say so this weekend.

Ruben is dumb for setting the market. But he does it every year so why are we surprised? He gives multiyear deals away like they're Halloween candy. Again, why are we surprised? RAJ has a longer leash than any of us like to admit. If you hope that a Marlon Byrd failure is going to cost Ruben his job, you're probably going to be disappointed. So rather than dwell on what a bunch of buffoons the Phillies front office must be, I like to focus on the possibilities that this signing might create...

First, Marlon Byrd is not the difference between 73 wins and 93 wins. But 2 years and $16M for Marlon Byrd is probably a better deal than they would have got if they signed Carlos Beltran, or Nelson Cruz, or Curtis Granderson, or Jacoby Ellsbury, or Shin Soo Choo. Crazy, I know.

Byrd was probably the 6th or 7th best outfield option in a lukewarm free agent class. The 5 guys at the top of the list will all receive guarantees of more years and more than twice as much per year from a team. Is Shin Soo Choo a better baseball player than Marlon Byrd? Of course, but probably not TWICE as good. Marlon Byrd offers a few things:

1. Potential Value. PED guys are always a gamble. For every David Ortiz who competes at a high level after his "alleged" PED days, there's a dozen guys that fall off the map. Byrd failed a drug test in 2012, missed some time, honed his skills in winter ball, and churned out a career year in 2013. Was he on PEDs when he cranked out 24 HRs and a .291 BA this year? I would guess not. Who would risk a 100 game ban knowing that they are under the watchful eye of MLB coming off a suspension? Some of those skills might be a one year wonder, but some might be real. $8M is a huge gamble for you and I, but for the Phillies it's a drop in the bucket. Assuming they are up against the luxury tax number as expected, Byrd's contract will represent about the same percentage of overall contracts at Geoff Jenkins did in 2008. That worked out alright for everyone, didn't it? If Byrd produces 80% of what he did last year, he's a bargain. If he doesn't, well then you have a guy who can replicate 75-80% of Byrd's 2013 numbers already on the roster with Darin Ruf and Marlon Byrd is a sunk cost. 
2. Contract length compatibility. The Phillies are already in an impossible situation. By 2017, the entire roster will need to turn over. But they're also not in a position to hand the keys off to a team full of guys in the farm system. Byrd on a short deal puts his contract in line with the Utley/Rollins/Lee/Papelbon/Howard deals that tell us that we will have a brand new team in 2017. Adding any of the other top OF free agents would required a longer deal, which would have meant they would be around longer than the core. None of the top 5 outfielders are young enough to be a building block for the next team. Paying a 35 year old Jacoby Ellsbury $20M in 2018 while the rest of the team is in their 20s would be a much bigger point of contention than the $8M Byrd will be owed next year if he's terrible.
3. The opportunity to add more pieces. I don't think adding any of the other free agent outfielders would have been enough to right this ship. But the amount of money they are all looking for would have made it nearly impossible to add any other impact players this offseason. There are holes on this team well beyond RF. 1-2 starters, 2-3 bullpen arms, and an entire new bench are needed. The difference between what Byrd will make and what any of the other free agent outfielders will make may be upwards of $10M this year. Sink that money elsewhere.

Most importantly, trading Domonic Brown is still on the table. We all know that the cupboards are still pretty bare in the minors for the Phillies. If you're crazy like me and you aren't convinced that this era of Phillies baseball is completely dead (okay, so maybe I'm drinking Kool Aid here), then you know that Ruben needs to take one more homerun swing on the trade market if another World Series is going to happen.  Domonic Brown is a commodity. When I look at him, I see a guy who crushed baseballs the month of May, but has been a slightly above average baseball player in every other month of his career. He has a cannon for an arm, but misreads and misjudges 50% of the flyballs that head his way. But there might be another GM out there that only reads HR/RBI/BA stat lines like RAJ does and he might be enamored with Dom Brown enough to make a big trade. I'm talking Matt Kemp, Yoenis Cespedes, Ryan Braun type of Big Trade. The Dodgers have a crowded outfield, the Atheletics have a tight budget, and the Brewers might be looking to distance themselves from the PED sideshow. Probable? No. But possible, and likely necessary if this core is going to make another deep run.

My Imaginary 2014 Phillies Lineup

C: Eric Kratz
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley (Re-signed for $12M/ season for 3 years)
SS: Freddy Galvis
3B: Maikel Franco (Promoted from AA)
Of: Domonic Brown
Of: Ben Revere
Of: Nick Castellanos (Acquired via Imaginary Papelbon Trade)
BN - C: Tommy Joseph (Promoted from AAA)
BN - MI: Cesar Hednandez
BN - IF: Cody Asche (Promoted from AAA)
BN - OF: John Mayberry Jr.
BN - Hitter: Darin Ruf

SP: Cliff Lee
SP: Roy Halladay (Re-signed for $10M/ season for 2 years)
SP: Cole Hamels
SP: Kyle Kendrick
SP: Jesse Biddle
SU: Antonio Bastardo
CL: Bruce Rondon (Acquired via imaginary Ruiz Trade)
Long Man: Jonathan Pettibone
Lefty: Joe Savery
RP: Justin DeFratus
RP: Tyler Cloyd
RP: Mike Adams


Unhappy face.

Sell, and do it now!

I hate the idea as much as you do... Giving up on a season with more than a third of its games still yet to be played. I especially hate it because I have ticket to 11 games in August and September. Do you think I want to sit through 90 degree weather and watch John McDonald flail at breaking pitches and Raul Valdes toss meatballs? No thanks.

But there has got to be a bigger plan at work here. A year and a half removed from a team that won 102 games and lost a divisional series to the eventual World Series Champion Cardinals, the current Phillies are a shell of their former self. If that 2011 team had a few more breaks go their way in the divisional series, they may have walked through the rest of the playoffs just as easily as the Cardinals did. That was a team with speed and pop and a 3.02 ERA. They had the tools to succeed. The 2013 team does not. If these Phillies have a few breaks go their way down the stretch and they speak into the playoffs as either a second Wild Card team or the division winner, they still don't have the tools to compete with St. Louis, LA, or Cincinnati (among others) in the NL. The only thing this team can accomplish in October is sucking another $500 out of my pocket as I buy playoff tickets.

While it remains to be seen if Phillies management has a plan, I have a plan that brings in fresh faces without a total press of the reset button...

• Sell, and sell now: if Matt Garza is worth Mike Olt, Justin Grimm, and CJ Edwards to the Rangers then Cliff Lee might have been worth three Jurickson Profars. Garza is just another guy. His perceived value is tied to pitching wins and an ERA that is unsustainable. If he can land you a slugging third baseman, a ML caliber pitcher, and an impressive pitching prospect then you need to strike while the iron is hot.

• Take advantage of the Tigers' desperation: They have no closer, their SS is about to be suspended for ties to a PED clinic, and their catchers are batting about a combined .200. Package Jonathan Papelbon, Jimmy Rollins, and Carlos Ruiz and ask for the sky. Nick Castellanos and Bruce Rondon are a good start. Castellanos is a top prospect in baseball, but largely wasting away in the Tigers minor league system right now. Rondon has all the stuff of a future closer, but a team that's in "win now" mode like the Tigers can't suffer the growing pains of a 22 year old at the back end of a bullpen. Both young players could slot in for the Phillies immediately and would be solid pieces to build on. An OF of Domonic Brown, Ben Revere, and Nick Castellanos suddenly has some balance to it. And shedding the bloated salary of Papelbon allows the Phillies to spread their money a little more evenly for future bullpen pieces.

• The Yankees are terrible at 3B: If the Yankees still think they can compete, sell them on Michael Young as a rental. Since the Yankees seem to be pursuing Alfonso Soriano, they must believe that the playoffs are still a possibility this season. Young isn't worth much in return but the Yankee 3B position has been a train-wreck all season. From what I can see, the Yankees prospect list is overloaded with Outfielders. Pry one of those guys away, and hope for the best. In the meantime, use the rest of the season as a try-out of sorts for Cody Asche. Asche has put up nice numbers the past two seasons but hasn't garnered much praise for his efforts. Given the kind of production the Phillies have gotten out of the hot corner for the past decade, the offensive bar is set pretty low.

• The Rangers are just as desperate: Two WS losses in the past two years have the Rangers hungry (as evidenced by the Garza trade). Unfortunately they may lose their cornerstone outfielder when the Biogenesis dust settles and Nelson Cruz's name is on a piece of paper. Given the fact that their only real backup plan is Craig Gentry, the Rangers have to find a way to hedge their bets in the outfield. John Mayberry, Darin Ruf, and/or Delmon Young should be available. Young and Mayberry are capable of playing RF, but Ruf might be the one most capable of providing de net numbers to fill the gap. I would attempt to package two of the three in return for second base prospect Rougned Odor. He's 19, has shown speed, gap power, and doesn't strike out a lot. He seems to project as an every day ML 2B from what I've read. He's also blocked long term by the trio of Profar/Andrus/Kinsler in Texas. 

• Re-sign Doc and Utley: Despite having missed 29 games, Chase Utley is still ranked 5th amongst second basemen in WAR. The free agent list of second basemen is #1 Robinson Cano, #2 Chase Utley, #3 A bunch of dudes who aren't good at baseball. The Phillies other options are Kevin Fransden, Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez. It's not pretty. Offer Utley the same deal that was given to Rollins and cross your fingers that the city has shown him enough good will that he'll accept a hometown discount. Otherwise he's going to make a fortune crushing balls into the short porch in RF for some other team. Roy Halladay is just as upset that Roy Halladay didn't perform well for the Phillies this season. Nothing says, "I'm sorry" like a comeback! He's 36, so you can't expect miracles, but two more seasons at around $10M per are probably good for everyone. That's slightly more than what Jamie Moyer made, and I think your expectations can be for a slightly better performance. 

• Only trade Lee if that 3 Profars offer comes in: I'm not happy with Cliff Lee's last two starts, but I also haven't forgotten his previous 18. The guy can still pitch and he does so with his left arm. I prefer the idea of keeping him on the Phillies, but I'm open to trading him, if the price is right. His contract is huge, but the usual teams could be interested. Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Dodgers, etc. Maybe the A's give up Addison Russell and a few other pieces? Maybe the Cardinals make Oscar Taveras and Carlos Martinez available? Whoever it is, give me three top five prospects and then we'll start talking. Otherwise, you have the option trying to pass Lee through waivers in August, trading him in the offseason, or waiting until the same time next year when a new batch of deadline buyers could get involved. 

Braves, Schmraves!

In trying to justify the shellacking taken to Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay the past two days, I've come to the following conclusion: The Braves are only slightly better than the Astros. Hear me out...

The all time single season mark for batting strikeouts by a team is 1,529 by the 2010 Diamondbacks. They had Mark Reynolds (211 Ks)... And finished 65-97 and dead last in the NL West. They recorded 4,343 outs in 2010 meaning 35.2% of their outs were strikeouts.

The Astros opened the season on the road in a three game series in which they struck out a total of 43 times. They batted in each of their 9 innings of play for a total of 81 outs made. Therefore, 43/81 or 53% of their outs were made via punch out. They are largely considered one of the worst teams in baseball and are projected to lose 100 games this year.

The Braves opened their season at home with two wins in which they struck out a total of 24 times. They have not batted in the 9th inning of either game, meaning they have only created 48 outs this season. 50% of their outs so far are via K and neither starter they have faced has made it more than 5 innings. Tonight they face one of only 13 pitchers in baseball to record 200 strikeouts last season.

Are the Braves winning in spite of themselves? Maybe. Will they race the Astros to the worst K numbers in baseball history? Probably. Am I scraping the bottom of the barrel here to find something to smile about in the NL East even though it's a ridiculously small sample size? Definitely.

The Definitive 2013 Phillies Prediction Post

It seems like only yesterday that the truck was packed and on its way to Clearwater... mostly because the last thing I wrote was a few days after said truck had arrived. 15 cases of gum, a pallet of Powerade, and virtually no injuries later the team is about to head north and embark on the 162 game journey that is a MLB season. Me? I still have two fantasy baseball teams to draft, a slowpitch softball season to prepare for, and a baseball-themed baby's room to finish before May 24th (we're naming him Chase, and yes it's exactly what you think).

But I would be remiss if I didn't dedicate a few moments to put virtual pen to paper and document my Phillies predictions for the year. This way when I'm right I look like the baseball Nostradamus, and when I'm wrong I can click delete and pretend this never happened. I was about 6 for 15 last year so obviously I know what I'm talking about...

That said, I present to you, the DroppedStrikeThree.com definitive list of Phillies predictions for 2013:

•  92 Wins. Hear me out on this one before you click back on your browser! The Phillies won 81 games last season. Their bullpen blew 27 games last year, up from 18 in 2011. You HAVE to assume the bullpen won't be THAT bad again. The lineup leaves Clearwater in tact, healthy, and arguably stronger than it ended last season. The team compiled a 35-24 record over August, September, and October. Projected over an entire season, that's good enough for 96 wins... I don't think it's a stretch to say that the bullpen will close out a few more Cliff Lee gems, a healthy Howard/Utley in April-May is worth a couple more wins than Wigginton/Galvis, and wet mop can perform better at the plate than Placido Polanco did in 2011. 11 more wins is very reasonable and likely enough to sneak into the playoffs.

• Chase Utley signs virtually the same exact contract as Jimmy Rollins (3 yr/ $33M) by the time the season is through. Two things to consider here: 1) Chase is still a fan favorite despite his decrepit knees and declining batting average. Every indication is that he wants to play a few more years and more importantly he wants to stay put. 2) There are few if any other options out there. Freddy Galvis can field, but his strikeout numbers this Spring are Dan Uggla-esque. The 2014 market consists of Robinson Cano (likely to be resigned), Ben Zobrist ($7M team option that's a no brainer), and a dozen middle aged replacement level players. Walking in the footsteps of Rollins only makes sense for Utley and the Phillies.

• Delmon Young plays fewer innings in right field than either John Mayberry Jr. or Laynce Nix. I genuinely love when the Phillies throw a few bucks at a former first rounder and cross their fingers that they can re-spark the magic. I loved when they gave Matt Anderson a bullpen shot in the spring of 2011, I want to see Joe Savery succeed whether it be as an outfielder or a pitcher or wherever else he can stick, and I'm always crossing my fingers that a Mark Prior comeback attempt will lead to another 245 strikeout season. It's like rooting for the big dog, turned underdog. Unfortunately, Delmon Young is just a dog.

• Ender Inciarte revives the frustrating tradition of keeping a Rule 5 guy on the roster all season long. David Herndon in 2010, Michael Martinez on 2011. The Phillies have tried to catch lightning in same bottle that snagged Shane Victorino in 2004. Inciarte fits a similar mold. While Darin Ruf is raking at AAA for the first two months of the season and balls aren't quite flying out of Citizens Bank Park at the same rate they're leaving Brighthouse Field this Spring, we'll all be pulling our hair out watching Inciarte ground into double plays like a young Wilson Valdez. As far as I can tell, Ender Inciarte's only discernible skill is speed on the bases which could have been had by keeping Juan Pierre around for $1M and change. Instead, the Phillies will march out Inciarte in painful pinch hitting ABs late in close games and we'll go bonkers.

• 37 Home runs for The Big Piece. I think Charlie made a smart move earlier this spring in playing Ryan Howard for something like 15 consecutive days; test those legs right from the start. Howard seems to have passed with flying colors. His bombs this spring aren't garden variety wall skimmers off minor league pitching. He took Craig Kimbrel opposite field to the Tiki Bar and he's dumped more than one out along Rt 19 in right field. I won't lie to you... .260 is about the ceiling on batting average for Ryan Howard's batting average. With season long interleague play, Howard should be able to take a fair amount of days off from the field while keeping his bat in the middle of the lineup. 

• The Braves set a new single season record for team strikeouts. Not the good kind done by their pitchers (who should be pretty impressive in their own right) either. This prediction has nothing to do with the Phillies, I just find it awesome. Take a free swinging team that went down 1,289 times last season: Deduct two incredibly patient guys in Chipper Jones and Martin Prado and replace them with the 300 K's the Upton brothers will yield. Juan Francisco full time at third base and the departed Michael Bourn will be close to a wash. The single season record for a team is 1,529 by the 2010 Diamondbacks (lost 97 games that year, just sayin...).  Washington and Philadelphia were #2 and #3 in pitching K's last season and that includes a Stephen Strasburg shut down. 1,530 is well within the Braves' grasp this season.

• #9 Domonic Brown All Star jerseys are your top selling Phillies jersey of the year. Not to say he's going to break out into the next Ken Griffey Jr. he was projected to be back in 2011, but far less talented players have rode a spring wave of HRs into an All-Star appearance (See: LaHair, Bryan in 2012). When Brown has 14 homers by the middle of June, fans will be building statues to honor the miraculous work performed by Wally Joyner in fixing Brown's swing. I see Dom Brown as exactly the type of player who can use a hot spring as a confidence boost and roll those numbers into the start of the regular season. And as mismanaged as he may have been for the past two years, there's a piece of land reserved for him in left or right field by default whether he succeeds right away or not. It certainly wouldn't be the first time Phillies fans stuffed a ballot box for a player that may or may not deserve the trip to an All-Star game. Considering the game will be held only about 100 miles up the turnpike, fans will have even more incentive to vote.

• This year's Vance Worley (and J.A. Happ before him) will be Adam Morgan. By that I mean non-prospect in early 2012 to big time contributor in 2013. Let's face it, John Lannan is probably more like the 4 IP/14 H/ 12 ER guy we saw last week than the guy who had only given up 5 runs in 14 innings previously. Jessie Biddle is the top prospect and Tyler Cloyd is the hot hand coming off a 15-1 season at AA/AAA, but Morgan is the guy with the best shot to help the Phillies this year. His command was on point last year averaging over a K per inning and 4.33 K/BB ratio over two levels last season. His appearances this spring were more of the same. Once the inevitable injury, or more likely a John Lannan/Kyle Kendrick implosion occurs, look for Morgan to make the most of his call. I'm even thinking something like 11 Wins and a top 5 Rookie of the Year candidate (similar to Worley/Happ/Kendrick).

• Charlie's back, Sandberg finds greener pastures. We know two things: 1) Charlie Manuel isn't ready to hang it up. 2) Ryne Sandberg is as eager as a kid on Christmas morning to land a head coaching job. If the Phillies have the successes I think they're going to have in 2013, it would be virtually impossible to let Manuel walk. Win 82 games and the job is all but a sure thing. Win 90 and it's a Vegas lock. Unfortunately I just don't see Sandberg sticking around another 2-3 years as Third Base coach and I have a sneaking suspicion that there will be some enticing vacancies with rebuilding teams in 2014. Maybe there's another job as "Advisor to the General Manager" that Ruben Amaro can create and keep Charlie around the front office?