July 23, 2013

Sell, and do it now!


I hate the idea as much as you do... Giving up on a season with more than a third of its games still yet to be played. I especially hate it because I have ticket to 11 games in August and September. Do you think I want to sit through 90 degree weather and watch John McDonald flail at breaking pitches and Raul Valdes toss meatballs? No thanks.

But there has got to be a bigger plan at work here. A year and a half removed from a team that won 102 games and lost a divisional series to the eventual World Series Champion Cardinals, the current Phillies are a shell of their former self. If that 2011 team had a few more breaks go their way in the divisional series, they may have walked through the rest of the playoffs just as easily as the Cardinals did. That was a team with speed and pop and a 3.02 ERA. They had the tools to succeed. The 2013 team does not. If these Phillies have a few breaks go their way down the stretch and they speak into the playoffs as either a second Wild Card team or the division winner, they still don't have the tools to compete with St. Louis, LA, or Cincinnati (among others) in the NL. The only thing this team can accomplish in October is sucking another $500 out of my pocket as I buy playoff tickets.

While it remains to be seen if Phillies management has a plan, I have a plan that brings in fresh faces without a total press of the reset button...

  • Sell, and sell now: if Matt Garza is worth Mike Olt, Justin Grimm, and CJ Edwards to the Rangers then Cliff Lee might have been worth three Jurickson Profars. Garza is just another guy. His perceived value is tied to pitching wins and an ERA that is unsustainable. If he can land you a slugging third baseman, a ML caliber pitcher, and an impressive pitching prospect then you need to strike while the iron is hot.
  • Take advantage of the Tigers' desperation: They have no closer, their SS is about to be suspended for ties to a PED clinic, and their catchers are batting about a combined .200. Package Jonathan Papelbon, Jimmy Rollins, and Carlos Ruiz and ask for the sky. Nick Castellanos and Bruce Rondon are a good start. Castellanos is a top prospect in baseball, but largely wasting away in the Tigers minor league system right now. Rondon has all the stuff of a future closer, but a team that's in "win now" mode like the Tigers can't suffer the growing pains of a 22 year old at the back end of a bullpen. Both young players could slot in for the Phillies immediately and would be solid pieces to build on. An OF of Domonic Brown, Ben Revere, and Nick Castellanos suddenly has some balance to it. And shedding the bloated salary of Papelbon allows the Phillies to spread their money a little more evenly for future bullpen pieces.
  • The Yankees are terrible at 3B: If the Yankees still think they can compete, sell them on Michael Young as a rental. Since the Yankees seem to be pursuing Alfonso Soriano, they must believe that the playoffs are still a possibility this season. Young isn't worth much in return but the Yankee 3B position has been a train-wreck all season. From what I can see, the Yankees prospect list is overloaded with Outfielders. Pry one of those guys away, and hope for the best. In the meantime, use the rest of the season as a try-out of sorts for Cody Asche. Asche has put up nice numbers the past two seasons but hasn't garnered much praise for his efforts. Given the kind of production the Phillies have gotten out of the hot corner for the past decade, the offensive bar is set pretty low.
  • The Rangers are just as desperate: Two WS losses in the past two years have the Rangers hungry (as evidenced by the Garza trade). Unfortunately they may lose their cornerstone outfielder when the Biogenesis dust settles and Nelson Cruz's name is on a piece of paper. Given the fact that their only real backup plan is Craig Gentry, the Rangers have to find a way to hedge their bets in the outfield. John Mayberry, Darin Ruf, and/or Delmon Young should be available. Young and Mayberry are capable of playing RF, but Ruf might be the one most capable of providing de net numbers to fill the gap. I would attempt to package two of the three in return for second base prospect Rougned Odor. He's 19, has shown speed, gap power, and doesn't strike out a lot. He seems to project as an every day ML 2B from what I've read. He's also blocked long term by the trio of Profar/Andrus/Kinsler in Texas. 
  • Re-sign Doc and Utley: Despite having missed 29 games, Chase Utley is still ranked 5th amongst second basemen in WAR. The free agent list of second basemen is #1 Robinson Cano, #2 Chase Utley, #3 A bunch of dudes who aren't good at baseball. The Phillies other options are Kevin Fransden, Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez. It's not pretty. Offer Utley the same deal that was given to Rollins and cross your fingers that the city has shown him enough good will that he'll accept a hometown discount. Otherwise he's going to make a fortune crushing balls into the short porch in RF for some other team. Roy Halladay is just as upset that Roy Halladay didn't perform well for the Phillies this season. Nothing says, "I'm sorry" like a comeback! He's 36, so you can't expect miracles, but two more seasons at around $10M per are probably good for everyone. That's slightly more than what Jamie Moyer made, and I think your expectations can be for a slightly better performance. 
  • Only trade Lee if that 3 Profars offer comes in: I'm not happy with Cliff Lee's last two starts, but I also haven't forgotten his previous 18. The guy can still pitch and he does so with his left arm. I prefer the idea of keeping him on the Phillies, but I'm open to trading him, if the price is right. His contract is huge, but the usual teams could be interested. Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Dodgers, etc. Maybe the A's give up Addison Russell and a few other pieces? Maybe the Cardinals make Oscar Taveras and Carlos Martinez available? Whoever it is, give me three top five prospects and then we'll start talking. Otherwise, you have the option trying to pass Lee through waivers in August, trading him in the offseason, or waiting until the same time next year when a new batch of deadline buyers could get involved. 

No comments:

Post a Comment