It seems like only yesterday that the truck was packed and on its way to Clearwater... mostly because the last thing I wrote was a few days after said truck had arrived. 15 cases of gum, a pallet of Powerade, and virtually no injuries later the team is about to head north and embark on the 162 game journey that is a MLB season. Me? I still have two fantasy baseball teams to draft, a slowpitch softball season to prepare for, and a baseball-themed baby's room to finish before May 24th (we're naming him Chase, and yes it's exactly what you think).
But I would be remiss if I didn't dedicate a few moments to put virtual pen to paper and document my Phillies predictions for the year. This way when I'm right I look like the baseball Nostradamus, and when I'm wrong I can click delete and pretend this never happened. I was about 6 for 15 last year so obviously I know what I'm talking about...
That said, I present to you, the DroppedStrikeThree.com definitive list of Phillies predictions for 2013:
- 92 Wins. Hear me out on this one before you click back on your browser! The Phillies won 81 games last season. Their bullpen blew 27 games last year, up from 18 in 2011. You HAVE to assume the bullpen won't be THAT bad again. The lineup leaves Clearwater in tact, healthy, and arguably stronger than it ended last season. The team compiled a 35-24 record over August, September, and October. Projected over an entire season, that's good enough for 96 wins... I don't think it's a stretch to say that the bullpen will close out a few more Cliff Lee gems, a healthy Howard/Utley in April-May is worth a couple more wins than Wigginton/Galvis, and wet mop can perform better at the plate than Placido Polanco did in 2011. 11 more wins is very reasonable and likely enough to sneak into the playoffs.
- Chase Utley signs virtually the same exact contract as Jimmy Rollins (3 yr/ $33M) by the time the season is through. Two things to consider here: 1) Chase is still a fan favorite despite his decrepit knees and declining batting average. Every indication is that he wants to play a few more years and more importantly he wants to stay put. 2) There are few if any other options out there. Freddy Galvis can field, but his strikeout numbers this Spring are Dan Uggla-esque. The 2014 market consists of Robinson Cano (likely to be resigned), Ben Zobrist ($7M team option that's a no brainer), and a dozen middle aged replacement level players. Walking in the footsteps of Rollins only makes sense for Utley and the Phillies.
- Delmon Young plays fewer innings in right field than either John Mayberry Jr. or Laynce Nix. I genuinely love when the Phillies throw a few bucks at a former first rounder and cross their fingers that they can re-spark the magic. I loved when they gave Matt Anderson a bullpen shot in the spring of 2011, I want to see Joe Savery succeed whether it be as an outfielder or a pitcher or wherever else he can stick, and I'm always crossing my fingers that a Mark Prior comeback attempt will lead to another 245 strikeout season. It's like rooting for the big dog, turned underdog. Unfortunately, Delmon Young is just a dog.
- Ender Inciarte revives the frustrating tradition of keeping a Rule 5 guy on the roster all season long. David Herndon in 2010, Michael Martinez on 2011. The Phillies have tried to catch lightning in same bottle that snagged Shane Victorino in 2004. Inciarte fits a similar mold. While Darin Ruf is raking at AAA for the first two months of the season and balls aren't quite flying out of Citizens Bank Park at the same rate they're leaving Brighthouse Field this Spring, we'll all be pulling our hair out watching Inciarte ground into double plays like a young Wilson Valdez. As far as I can tell, Ender Inciarte's only discernible skill is speed on the bases which could have been had by keeping Juan Pierre around for $1M and change. Instead, the Phillies will march out Inciarte in painful pinch hitting ABs late in close games and we'll go bonkers.
- 37 Home runs for The Big Piece. I think Charlie made a smart move earlier this spring in playing Ryan Howard for something like 15 consecutive days; test those legs right from the start. Howard seems to have passed with flying colors. His bombs this spring aren't garden variety wall skimmers off minor league pitching. He took Craig Kimbrel opposite field to the Tiki Bar and he's dumped more than one out along Rt 19 in right field. I won't lie to you... .260 is about the ceiling on batting average for Ryan Howard's batting average. With season long interleague play, Howard should be able to take a fair amount of days off from the field while keeping his bat in the middle of the lineup.
- The Braves set a new single season record for team strikeouts. Not the good kind done by their pitchers (who should be pretty impressive in their own right) either. This prediction has nothing to do with the Phillies, I just find it awesome. Take a free swinging team that went down 1,289 times last season: Deduct two incredibly patient guys in Chipper Jones and Martin Prado and replace them with the 300 K's the Upton brothers will yield. Juan Francisco full time at third base and the departed Michael Bourn will be close to a wash. The single season record for a team is 1,529 by the 2010 Diamondbacks (lost 97 games that year, just sayin...). Washington and Philadelphia were #2 and #3 in pitching K's last season and that includes a Stephen Strasburg shut down. 1,530 is well within the Braves' grasp this season.
- #9 Domonic Brown All Star jerseys are your top selling Phillies jersey of the year. Not to say he's going to break out into the next Ken Griffey Jr. he was projected to be back in 2011, but far less talented players have rode a spring wave of HRs into an All-Star appearance (See: LaHair, Bryan in 2012). When Brown has 14 homers by the middle of June, fans will be building statues to honor the miraculous work performed by Wally Joyner in fixing Brown's swing. I see Dom Brown as exactly the type of player who can use a hot spring as a confidence boost and roll those numbers into the start of the regular season. And as mismanaged as he may have been for the past two years, there's a piece of land reserved for him in left or right field by default whether he succeeds right away or not. It certainly wouldn't be the first time Phillies fans stuffed a ballot box for a player that may or may not deserve the trip to an All-Star game. Considering the game will be held only about 100 miles up the turnpike, fans will have even more incentive to vote.
- This year's Vance Worley (and J.A. Happ before him) will be Adam Morgan. By that I mean non-prospect in early 2012 to big time contributor in 2013. Let's face it, John Lannan is probably more like the 4 IP/14 H/ 12 ER guy we saw last week than the guy who had only given up 5 runs in 14 innings previously. Jessie Biddle is the top prospect and Tyler Cloyd is the hot hand coming off a 15-1 season at AA/AAA, but Morgan is the guy with the best shot to help the Phillies this year. His command was on point last year averaging over a K per inning and 4.33 K/BB ratio over two levels last season. His appearances this spring were more of the same. Once the inevitable injury, or more likely a John Lannan/Kyle Kendrick implosion occurs, look for Morgan to make the most of his call. I'm even thinking something like 11 Wins and a top 5 Rookie of the Year candidate (similar to Worley/Happ/Kendrick).
- Charlie's back, Sandberg finds greener pastures. We know two things: 1) Charlie Manuel isn't ready to hang it up. 2) Ryne Sandberg is as eager as a kid on Christmas morning to land a head coaching job. If the Phillies have the successes I think they're going to have in 2013, it would be virtually impossible to let Manuel walk. Win 82 games and the job is all but a sure thing. Win 90 and it's a Vegas lock. Unfortunately I just don't see Sandberg sticking around another 2-3 years as Third Base coach and I have a sneaking suspicion that there will be some enticing vacancies with rebuilding teams in 2014. Maybe there's another job as "Advisor to the General Manager" that Ruben Amaro can create and keep Charlie around the front office?
