Life is rough as a team in the AL East not named the Yankees or Red Sox. It took years of futility and incredibly lucky 1st round drafts for the Tampa Bay Rays to climb out of the basement. Fortunately for Baltimore baseball fans, the Orioles seem to have followed the same model and are poised for a rise in the standings in 2011...
Before jumping into the players, let's give credit where it is due. Buck Showalter came out of managerial retirement and left the comfortable confines of Bristol, CT to become the Orioles manager last season. His results? Just 36-23 and the best record in the Al East over that span. Project that record over a full season and Showalter's O's could have won 98 games! I'm sure they only beat other cellar dwellers, right? Wrong. The Orioles went 11-10 combined against the Sox, Yanks, and Rays over that span while all three of those teams were in a serious playoff chase. Over that final 59 game span, the Showalter's pitching staff made 36 quality starts and the bats hit at a .300 clip. Solid numbers for a pretty significant stretch of the season.
But it's the years of futility that has really benefited the Baltimore Orioles. With 1st round picks the Orioles have selected Brian Roberts, Brian Matusz, Matt Wieters, and Nick Markakis in recent years. In the 2nd, Nolan Reimold. Add Mark Reynolds, JJ Hardy, Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, and Luke Scott and you have a formidable lineup. They have a solid group of veteran leaders and youth approaching their prime. All for about a third of what the Yankees pay for their team.
Their starting staff drops off a bit after Brian Matusz and Jeremy Guthrie. Brad Bergesen and Justin Duchscherer are question marks at best. But Kevin Gregg and Koji Uehara are solid bullpen arms and should be able to stop some of the early bleeding that could occur.
The hitting corps are what impress me most. For a team that has struggled with offensive production for more than a decade, their lineup is very formidable. With role players and stars aplenty, the Orioles may actually have more hitters than they know what to do with. Derek Lee, Mark Reynolds, Brian Roberts, JJ Hardy, Luke Scott, Nolan Reimold, Vladimir Guerrero, Matt Wieters, Felix Pie, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Jake Fox are 12 names that will compete for 9 starting positions. Showalter has so much flexibility with this group that he may be able to keep his young guys fresh and his veterans healthy. Speaking of which, health may be their biggest key to the 2011 season. If Brian Roberts can stay off the DL and the rest of the team puts up the numbers they are capable of, this team will score runs. Homeruns to be more specific. There are at least 10 guys on this team with 20 HR potential in 2011.
Playoffs are a lofty goal for the coming season, but the Orioles are coming together as a major league baseball team. They will take their lumps in their own division due to lacking starting pitching, but they'll give out just as many.
88-74, 3rd place in the AL East.
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