February 15, 2011

On Charlie & Ruben...

Apparently, Albert Pujols isn't the only one frustrated with his contract situation as Charlie Manuel has made it clear that he would like to have his contract extended prior to the start of the season. God knows, I've had as many "What the hell is he thinking?" moments with Charlie Manuel as anyone, but what exactly is Charlie Manuel worth to the Phillies? Manager's salaries are not typically made public the way player's salaries are, but some research shows that Charlie is currently signed for $2.4M through the end of the 2011 season. It is said that he is looking for something around a 2 year extension worth $4M/year. That would put him in line with the top 5 managers in the game. Before we determine if Charlie is worthy of being paid like a top 5 manager, lets look at the following figures...
  • Among active managers, Manuel ranks 10th in career wins behind Tony LaRussa, Joe Torre, Jim Leyland, Dusty Baker, Bruce Bochy, Mike Scioscia, Terry Francona, Buck Showalter, and Ron Gardenhire.
  • He trails only Joe Torre, however, in Win %
  • His 5 playoff appearances are good for 5th best among active managers, and his 25 playoff wins since 2005 are the best in baseball. 
  • Charlies average finish of 1.5 is the best among all active managers and his teams have never finished worse than 3rd. 
Scioscia, Francona, Leyland, and LaRussa all make at least $4M/year. Dusty Baker is slightly behind at $3.7M/ year. At 67 years old, Charlie likely doesn't have many years left managing. Two years at an increase of only $1.6M is a pretty safe gamble to make. Who knows, by then maybe Ryne Sandberg will be ready for a promotion and we can finally get some value out of our 1978 20th round draft pick!

Then again, let's not ignore the fact that Charlie Manuel's appearance in Philadelphia almost directly coincided with the appearance of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Cole Hamels. Sprinkle in a cash cow of a new stadium and a few lucky acquisitions (Werth, Victorino, 2008 Lidge) and one could argue that a trained monkey could have coached this team to the playoffs. If Jim Leyland was chosen back in 2004, we very well may be looking at the same exact banners flying in the outfield.

How do you measure intangibles like "clubhouse chemistry?" You can't, but you have to reward success. Despite 4 consecutive division titles, the BBWAA has never rewarded Charlie Manuel with a Manager of the Year award. He's probably replaceable, but it's simply not a gamble Ruben Amaro Jr. should be willing to make...

Which brings me on to Ruben... when asked yesterday about Charlie Manuel setting a deadline for a deal to get done, Ruben seemed taken aback. “We don’t talk about negotiations. Obviously we want to get it done. We’d like to keep Charlie. Hopefully we’ll be able to get something done.” You have to understand, though, Charlie's contract was the farthest thing from Ruben's mind. Afterall, this was the first time his masterpiece was to be on display! As pointed out by The Good Phight, the Ruben Amaro Jr Smug Meter was at it's highest level:

"All the while, Ruben Amaro Jr. was stifling a grin. Along the back wall, away from the camera clicks and digital recorders, he put his hands in his pockets, crossed left leg over right and leaned against a trash can. He couldn’t help but gaze at the Phillies’ Four Aces and a Joe-ker. This was his Michelangelo."
"Every general manager fantasizes about building a mega-team, and in front of him was the visage of success. Through trades and the shocking victory in the free agent sweepstakes for Lee, Amaro upgraded the Phillies to the biggest, baddest team in baseball – one that walks alongside the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox without at all looking out of place. " - Jeff Passan, Yahoo!
While Ruben's achievements are impressive, the captain of this ship is still Charlie Manuel. A good handful of the key cogs to this machine are products of Pat Gillick and Ed Wade (gasp!) so Ruben probably gets more credit than he deserves. There will be at least a dozen times this season where my game-recaps (yes, I'll be doing those!) will be filled with rants about some inane Charlie Manuel decision. But it wasn't Charlie Manuel's fault that Brad Lidge couldn't close out a game in 2009 to save his life. And it wasn't Charlie Manuel's fault that Ryan Howard ended the 2010 season with his bat on his shoulder.

We've already seen Ruben cheap out on managers once this season. Davey Lopes was by all accounts a zen master when it came to the art of base running. Yet when asking for a modest raise, Lopes was denied, and so he walked. Charlie is also no stranger to this sort of situation. After back to back 90 win seasons in Cleveland, he was given his walking papers mid season partially due to his contract situation at the end of the season and failed negotiations.
“It wouldn’t be the first time in the world a manager would go into a season without a contract extension. It wouldn’t trouble me. It wouldn’t trouble the players. They’re pretty focused guys. Clearly none of us want this to be distraction and I don’t think it will be. Like I said, we’d like to be able to put this to bed, so we’ll see.”
 Two years at $3.8M/each is fair for all parties. Get the deal done, Rube!

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