Pujols for Howard?

Considering I'm not a very big Albert Pujols fan, his name sure has been creeping into my blog an awful lot lately. Yesterday afternoon, Ken Rosenthal threw fuel on a non-existent fire when he speculated that the Cardinals could consider trading Pujols for someone along the lines of Mark Texeira or Ryan Howard. There is no teeth to this story and I wouldn't even classify it as a rumor. It's more of an "idea." Interestingly enough, the same idea was brought up almost a year ago by Buster Olney, but that was prior to Ryan Howard signing his extension.

I would argue that a year ago would have been the most likely case for an Albert Pujols for Ryan Howard swap to occur. Both players approached free agency as the two biggest names at a power position. However, Ryan Howard's 5 year - $125M extension is a modest sum when compared to Albert Pujols' potential deal. Howard clearly took a hometown discount in signing for less years and a reasonable amount per year. Pujols, on the other hand, is looking to become the highest paid player in the game and has even attempted to ask for an ownership stake in the Cardinals. 10 years - $300M is just too much of a gamble for a mid market team like the Cardinals and all reports this morning are that the deal is dead in the water.

But hypothetically speaking, what would the world be like if the Phillies could swap Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols? First of all, a 10 year deal is still highly unlikely. Both Pujols and Howard are 31 years old now. There's a big difference between having a contract end at age 36 and at age 41. As impressive a specimen as Albert is, no player is worth $30M at 40 years of age. Something around 8 years - $240M is the absolute limit I could see coming from Ruben Amaro Jr if he was a Phillie. But do the dollars even work out? Well, you'd have to assume any deal for Pujols would require a few other pieces. The Phils would probably like to send Joe Blanton along in the deal and you can pretty much forget about a new contract for Jimmy Rollins. Otherwise, with Raul Ibanez coming off the books, the extra $5M added to next years salary really isn't a huge sticking point. Longevity would be the major sticking point. While Pujols has been relatively healthy for his whole career, his stance both on the field and at the plate suggest long term deterioration. While he's a gold glove caliber 1st baseman today, 10 years from now he's likely a designated hitter (a luxury that neither the Cardinals or the Phillies have in their lineup). With concerns that Ryan Howard may break down by age 36, why would the Phillies have any interest in a 41 year old making that kind of cash? Raul Ibanez has been in peak physical shape his entire career and even his body is falling apart in his late 30s.

But reason #1 why this has zero shot at happening... Despite being born and raised in St. Louis, Ryan Howard is Philadelphia. A trade like this only happens with baseball cards. Not even Ruben Amaro could pull this one off.