Yay, Football is Over! So Who's the Phils 5th Starter?

Thank god football is over with... I like a good pigskin game as much as the next guy, but last night's Championship Game (I can't use the real term because the NFL likes to sue people who use the words "super" and "bowl" together) was the most forgettable game in history. Dreadful pregame coverage, a butchered National Anthem. frequent microphone malfunctions, a terrible halftime show, a weak crop of commercials, and a mostly boring football game all combined to give me headache. There were no winners last night, only millions upon millions of losers who tuned into that nonsense.

But do not fret, sports fans. Pitchers and Catchers are due in Clearwater in just a matter of days! As a matter of fact, reports as early as two weeks ago already had guys like Ryan Howard and Tyson Gillies down in Florida taking early hacks with hitting instructors. Meanwhile, Raul Ibanez seems to have spent his offseason getting jacked in the gym, and Shane Victorino is honing his glove work in Las Vegas. We've been saying this every year for the past 3 or 4 years, but this coming baseball season is the most anticipated of most of our lives!

One question that still needs addressing, though, is who exactly will fill the #5 starters role on opening day? There currently seems to be three schools of thought on the subject:

1. The Phillies hang onto Joe Blanton and he is your  #5 starter for most of the season.
2. The Phillies trade Blanton and hand the job over to Kyle Kendrick to start the season.
3. The Phillies trade Blanton and hold an open try-out amongst young pitchers like Andrew Carpenter, Vance Worley, and Drew Naylor.

I'm a pretty staunch supporter of option #3. First of all, Joe Blanton is a valuable commodity. He's not a #1 pitcher, and probably not even a #2, but he's reliable and relatively healthy. He's a lock for 180+ innings even in a bad year. Guys like that have value to a team even if they give up first inning runs just about every game. Look at a team like the Yankees who have lost out on just about every pitching option they targeted in the offseason. Cliff Lee went to the Phillies, Zack Greinke went to the Brewers, and Andy Pettitte chose golf instead. With few reliable options left, the Yankees are trotting out a whole host of "sub-Blanton" pitchers to fill the bottom of their rotation. Should one of these guys falter in spring training, Joe Blanton suddenly becomes a valuable commodity. The Rangers and Angels are teams that could come begging by mid-March too.

As for Kyle Kendrick, he has too much value as a #6 starter/multi-inning pitcher. With Chad Durbin leaving town, the Phillies have a gaping hole in the bullpen for a guy that can throw 3+ innings should a starter exit the game early. No one on this team fits that bill better than Kyle Kendrick. Jose Contreras is a nice option, but his innings are best suited as a 7th/8th inning guy. The other projected names in the bullpen are JC Romero, Ryan Madson, Scott Matthieson, David Herndon, and Brad Lidge. That's 5 starters and 7 relievers already... there's almost no chance the Phillies will carry more pitchers than that. So if any of Carpenter, Worley, or Naylor are to make the team it has to be as the number 5 starter.

Which brings me to my favorite scenario... Trade Blanton, keep Kendrick as the long reliever, and experiment with a young arm. Drew Naylor, Andrew Carpenter, and Vance Worley all have their upside. It's very likely that in another year or two, one of them will be the successor to a member of the "Big 4." As awesome as it is to have Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, and Hamels in town for 2011, it's not very likely that the foursome will last for more than this season and the next. One of the three young guys will be a key member of this team moving forward. Carpenter saw moderate success with the big club in the past and Naylor had a Blanton-esque performance at Reading last season. Of the three, though, Vance Worley probably has the biggest upside. Worley had two quality starts in the majors last season and posted very solid numbers overall across two minor league levels. Given that he is 23 years old, Worley is at the prime age to start his major league career. His scouting report shows a very lively fastball, and average change and curve pitches. But most notable, is his 1.64 ground ball rate which is a major benefit at Citizens Bank Park. I think the right handed Worley is exactly what we need to see in the #5 spot this coming season.