Keeper: Mark Teixeira, 1B
I struggled with this forever, but had I not kept Tex, I would have ended up with picks 11, 12, 13 and if he was still available, I probably would have grabbed him in there anyway. His value dropped from last year because of a putrid first two months and while he's a notoriously slow starter, he'll never bat below the Mendoza line for an extended period of time like that again. I think A-Rod is on the decline and I think Robinson Cano peaked last year so I expect Tex to carry a very heavy load for NY.
Round 1 - 11th Overall - Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
It can be argued that this was really a 21st overall pick since all but one owner went with a keeper, but either way I backed my way into this pick. I was hoping for Longoria to fall that far, but with the him and the top 3 outfielders off the board, this was a no brainer. 3rd Base is Longoria, Zimmerman, Wright, A-Rod, Bautista and a whole lot of garbage. Considering BadBoysofSummer snagged both Wright and Bautista and A-Rod went undrafted, there's a whole lot of garbage owned. Jason Werth will protect Zimm in the same way Dunn did. At his age, its nice to think you have an established top tier 3rd baseman who still hasn't reached his peak.
Round 2 - 13th Overall - Shin Soo Choo, OF
It sounds like a reach, but he was really the player I targeted more than anyone else in the draft. Choo is a top 5 tool player in the game at a time when those guys are extremely lacking. I would have taken Braun and Cargo over him, but probably no one else at their value. He'll flirt with .300/30/30/100/100 and probably reach at least three of those milestones. Find me another guy with those likely stats under $30.
Round 3 - 34th Overall - Jason Heyward, OF
I drafted him last year, but got too gun shy during his early season slump. But I wasn't making that mistake this year. The price was a little high, but the way I had things set up, I could afford it with his upside. This kid is the real deal and his inner Ken Griffey Jr. is going to show. I expect him to push 30 home runs with 20 SBs, but his patience at the plate is what really gets me excited. The Braves are going to score runs this year and with a healthy team and no more 1st year jitters, Heyward should score a ton and knock a ton in.
Round 4 - 35th Overall - Gordon Beckham, 2B
I had to save a few dollars here for peace of mind and for $14, no middle infielder seemed to have more bang for his buck than Beckham. He struggled early last year but caught fire down the stretch. He's done nothing but continue that momentum during the spring. With Chase Utley going down, there's an opening amongst elite 2nd baseman and I think Beckham has a shot at it. He's showing nice pop and he'll bat 2nd in front of Adam Dunn.
Round 5 - 56th Overall - Carlos Santana, C
I tried to grab him when he came up from the minors last season but was foiled by my lack of a smart phone and a buddy who would push his own grandmother down a flight of stairs to steal a player from someone. The knee injury kept his numbers in check, but he looks fine this spring. This was a stray from my strategy, but my value catchers actually started dropping off the board before this pick. When I lost out on Matt Weiters for what would have been my 3rd straight year of disappointment, I knew I had to look there soon. Santana at 23 wasn't great value, but I'll cross my fingers and hope for the upside.
Round 6 - 57th Overall - Brian Matusz, SP
I would have preferred to wait longer for him, but $8-12 pitchers were falling off the board quickly right around here. My notes said wait until after the 5th round to get a pitcher and that's exactly what I did. Matusz is a great talent on a not so great team. But the Orioles are certainly a lot better than last year. 15 wins is probably his upside, but the value is there all day long at $10.
Round 7 - 78th Overall - Jonathan Papelbon, RP
I couldn't believe how quickly relief pitchers went. Such a strange league. I really didn't want one here, but Papelbon has nice value. He has been vulnerable the last 2 years, but he has two huge things going for him. 1) He plays for the Red Sox who will have plenty of opportunities for saves and Terry Francona has made it abundantly clear that he is their guy. 2) If he happens to get traded and they give the job to Bard, he'll go to another team as the closer. The Red Sox won't trade him away to be a middle reliever somewhere. His price is less than the elite, but he'll probably put up a higher save total than most of them because the Sox will win so many games.
Round 8 - 79th Overall - Colby Lewis, SP
Probably a round early, but this was another starting pitcher I had circled, highlighted, and underlined. The Rangers are still a great team and Lewis was their best pitcher last post season. With Cliff Lee out of town, he's now even more important. For his price, I like the high innings he's going to throw and the strikeouts he'll pick up. 15 wins is likely as well.
Round 9 - 100th Overall - Cliff Pennington, SS
Tsuyoshi Nishioka was my target for this position from the start and I missed him by 1 pick two rounds earlier. I really need to hide my notes in my own house. But I quickly moved on. I have a couple of plan B's here should things get hairy, but if $2 can net me 30 steals like he got last year, he can bat .250 all day. All the reports I read had him better than that, but the power numbers are extremely lacking. He might be my biggest surprise, or the first guy I drop.
Round 10 - 101st Overall - Johnny Venters, RP
At this point, every full time closer under $20 was off the board and I didn't have $20 anyway. For a guy who's still looking at a closer by committee job, Venters is a steal. He pitches a ton of innings, gets strikeouts by the bunches and keeps his peripheral numbers low. Everything I've read indicates that he's had a better spring than the ridiculously overpriced Craig Kimbrel so I'm holding out hope he wins the job outright. If not, I like him as a placeholder that will keep my numbers low while I lie in the grass waiting on a closer to pounce on.
Round 11 - 122nd Overall - Kyle Drabek, SP
A complete flier here, but for $1 I love the upside. He pitches in the AL East which seems to chew up and spit out most rookies, but the pedigree is there and he's worked through every level of the game fixing his mistakes and improving. His price makes him easily worth the look for the first month of the season. If he falters, there will be 10 other guys with $1 values who are worth owning. I can think of three right now I'm going to keep an eye on...
Round 12 - 123rd Overall - Jose Tabata, OF
At this point I had three names in mind: Tabata, Ryan Raburn, or Mike Morse. Raburn was my leading choice but had two things going against him... a lot of stiff competition, and last of help in any one major category. Mike Morse was the cheapest option and has really wowed some scouts since mid last season but seemed like too much of a risk. Tabata is going to bat lead off for the Pirates and will steal a bunch of bases. One magazine I read called him Shane Victorino-lite. He left me with a few dollars left under the cap which proved useful.
Players I wanted and missed...
- I really wanted to stack my outfield with 3 of the following: Gonzalez-Choo-McCutchen-Heyward-Bruce-Stubbs-Stanton in that order. I ended up with 2 of my top 4 and decided to wait on the 3rd. That move was a product of my draft position more than anything else.
- Tsuyoshi Nishioka intrigued me from the first time I read about him in January and I can't believe he hasn't been a bigger story. He's a lock to bat 2nd for the Twins and if he can get on base at the clip he has this spring, he should be big in 3 categories. As much as I like him, I could never have justified wasting a 7th round pick to get him. I was looking at him closer to round 10.
- Jeremy Hellickson and Leo Nunez were the only two pitchers I targeted and missed out on by a mile. There were some other guys I liked, but just couldn't bring myself to pay for. Closers are so hard to come by right now and a 2nd cheap closer would have been awesome. Saves may only be one category, but I've never seen a league won by someone who completely punts them.
- I did some math and if you take my team's 2010 numbers and plug them in the offensive rankings, I'm middle of the road in every category. And that's including three guys who had under 450 ABs and 2 other guys who had disappointing years. Add in mid season acquisitions and I should be pretty well rounded.
- Pitching wise, I like my chances of getting 190+ innings from all three of my starters. Wins and Ks will come from mid season moves. But I really wish I could have snagged a Kevin Gregg like player as a 2nd closer.
Final Grade: B+
I did the best I could with what I had to work with. I hit most of my key points, but following ADPs and checklists was impossible when running the draft as well. Wish me luck!
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