Around The Diamond

(From Phillies.com)

Exactly how I like my Charlie Manuel... slumped in a chair, sunglasses on, with what could possibly be an empty beer can under his chair, fist bumping Jim Thome. 

Those of you who emailed me with Hector Luna as the first Phillies player to hit a Homerun this season will receive a free DroppedStrikeThree.com T-shirt! (no one emailed, and those shirts don't exist). The Phillies won today's exhibition game in Clearwater this afternoon against the Florida State Seminoles with a score of 6-1. Not much worth commenting on other than the fact that Juan Pierre led off the game with an incredibly uncharacteristic strikeout and Domonic Brown took a ball off the hand he injured last year. For two guys that need a lot of things to go their way to earn a spot on the team, this probably wasn't the start they were hoping for. Pierre was an interesting get mostly because he's a contact hitter who rarely ever strikes out. He'll be competing with a near mirror image of himself in Scott Podsednik for a 5th OF spot and a likely frequent pinch running gig. A healthy Podsednik has a leg up due to his 2010 success, though last year he battled through multiple injuries. Keep an eye out for this one. Brown, on the other hand, practically needs to have a flawless spring and while he did steal a base in that same inning, the HBP just gives management one more thing to point at should he struggle for a few brief moments this spring. His only real chance lies with an injury to either of the two mentioned above or Laynce Nix. The real Grapefruit League action begins in two more days with a Saturday afternoon game against the Yankees. Anything to get this image off my Yahoo home page:

Another fantasy baseball freebie here for you from the folks at ClubhouseGM.com. Check out their 35 page draft kit, as well as their player rankings and tier projections. I find you can never have too many opinions when it comes to fantasy. 

Mike Stanton is now Giancarlo Cruz Michael Stanton... add this one to the list of name changes this season. 

Poor David Wright... stuck on a team that dumped 50% of its salary and just about every asset they have to fend off the bill collectors. Now, to top it all off, he has to wear orange and blue shirts with the Underdog logo on the front. As if they weren't already the punchline of just about every joke in baseball, now they've chosen to promote their struggles. This isn't a team that has struggled to attract free agents or sustained years of reduced payroll. This is a team that was has been auctioned off over the past year because the Wilpons are desperate to maintain ownership of the team. It's going to take a team full of superhero dogs to save the Mets. Sorry, David Wright... there is very much a "need to fear."

The Cure Baseball is a pretty non-profit organization with the goal of raising money for cancer research groups and families affected by cancer through the game of baseball. They are raising money to support a traveling summer baseball team that will in turn use every summer game to act as a fundraiser. I think it's a pretty cool outreach that all baseball fans could get behind. How do you support from Philadelphia? Well donate, or buy some merchandise!

Around The Diamond

Because this video never gets old... a 46 year old in his final season getting a guy 20 years his junior in a headlock for a few knuckle sandwiches.

Firstly, since I've been asked about fantasy baseball advice from a few people, let me steer you towards the folks at Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks and their free draft kit. Their site is chock full of draft strategies, player rankings, and prospect reports. I'm not going to float all of my secrets out there, but consider this one me throwing you guys a bone!

Yours truly has thus far landed in 4 different Fantasy Baseball Leagues for the upcoming season. New to me this year are The 06010 Board Dynasty League, fan board for the world famous ESPN Fantasy Focus podcast, and the COSFBA Blog/Twitter League hosted by a gentleman that now writes for Full Spectrum Baseball. I'm pretty stoked to be invited into a couple of highly competitive leagues like this and I'll surely keep everyone posted as to how the season progresses. This is of course in addition to my usual Pop's Fantasy League that I've been in for almost two decades.

Speaking of Full Spectrum Baseball, they had an interesting article the other day on why baseball could use a little "linsanity?" Unless you've been living under a rock, you've probably heard about basketball star Jeremy Lin and his rise to fame. ESPN mentioned his name on Sports Center 350 times last week, Knicks tickets have tripled in price in the secondary market, and this past weekend Saturday Night Live spent 4 minutes exhausting every Jeremy Lin pun in the book. In just a few weeks, his rise from an unknown guy destined for D League has transcended the game and turned basketball into a pop culture topic. And I think that's exactly the kind of thing baseball is in need of for two different reasons. First of all, baseball is ripe with Asian born players, but very few of them have reached a level of pop culture stardom similar to Lin. The one who has had the most success on the field, Ichiro, has spent his entire major league career in the Pacific Northwest where baseball is an afterthought. The mild success had by Hideki Matsui was met with international popularity. Just imagine if he had a Barry Bonds like career.  But above all, baseball simply needs a player who can invigorate fans with the chase of a major record. The world tuned in when Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa chased down the single season home run record. Chris Berman announced the game on national TV when Cal Ripken played in game 2,131 to break Lou Gherig's consecutive games played record. And fans stormed the field when Hank Aaron passed Babe Ruth for the all time home run record. But it's been more than a decade since baseball has had anything nearly as memorable as any of those moments. Seeing someone chase a .400 batting average or notch a hit in 50+ consecutive games would put baseball in a spotlight it just hasn't seen in recent years. Matt Kemp having a 50-50 season would be a good start! "Linsanity" is out there for baseball in one form or another.

Another interesting read this week is Deadspin's take on the classic Simpsons episode, "Homer at Bat" which was the first show to vault the Fox network to the top of the ratings and an episode that was nearly a year in the making. This article gives a behind the scenes look at how baseball's biggest stars came together in 1992 and the eerie foreshadowing that episode really had for many of their careers. Wade Boggs in a bar fight, check. Don Mattingly with long hair, check. An obscenely muscular Jose Canseco, check.

And lastly, I encourage all of you to check out the NQA Podcast for a "somewhat weekly, somewhat Phillies related podcast for the Philadelphia fan experience." Those guys podcast for much the same reason I write a blog. They have fun, don't take themselves too seriously, and genuinely embody the common Phillies fan experience. Where most Phillies podcasters (and most bloggers and podcasters in general) attempt to play the part of amateur reporters or analysts, these guys just put on a fun and entertaining show. Plus NQA Dutch vows to go T-Mac Free for the entire 2012 season so that alone is enough to get my endorsement. Season three will kick off any day now, but don't be afraid to check out a few of their old episodes on iTunes!

BBA and My First Mock Draft of the Year

Ahh, the Winter Meetings are a distant memory and spring training is a mere 90 days (give or take) away! You can almost smell the baseball in the air...

The past 10 days or so, a group of Fantasy Baseball bloggers and myself took part in a slow crawl of a mock draft to get the ball rolling on early discussions and predictions (full chat transcript here if you're actually interested in reading). Our group consisted of 14 teams from the Baseball Bloggers Alliance drafting in a 14 team mixed league with no bench but a utility spot and a pair of general pitchers. Needless to say, the competition was a bit more stiff than your standard mom & pop fantasy league, but all in all I think I held my own quite well.

C - Wilson Ramos
1B - Miguel Cabrera
2B - Howie Kendrick
SS - Jhonny Peralta
3B - Ryan Zimmerman
OF - Ryan Braun
OF - Matt Holliday
OF - Melky Cabrera
UT - Emilio Bonifacio

SP - Josh Johnson
SP - Adam Wainwright
SP - Ervin Santana
RP - Mariano Rivera
RP - Ryan Madson
P - Ivan Nova
P - Vance Worley

In the end, I probably took a few more injury/youth/PED risks than I ever would in a real draft, but I would be willing to march into battle with this lineup any day of the week. I've always prided myself in my ability to supplement my draft mistakes with the picking up of rising talent off the waiver wire (see Matt Joyce and Mike Morse last season). I have the upside of having the MVP of both leagues and a Cy Young winner on my team and I've mixed in a few "safe" guys to hedge my bets on.

For FULL analysis on the draft, check out BleacherGM over the next week or so for their round by round take on which teams look the best, which positions are looking shallow, and where some good value can be found for the 2012 season! Special thanks to all of the guys I drafted along with for the invite and the good conversation!

Below you'll find my take on each of the guys I selected:

Round 1 #6 Overall – Miguel Cabrera, 1B

Tough one here as my gut was telling me to look at a 5 tool guy, but i promised myself that this year aside from Pujols, Miguel Cabrera would be the only other 1st Baseman that I would reach for in the first round. I don't think anyone else in baseball is such a lock for 30+ HRs, 100+ RBI, contends for a batting title and above all stays healthy. Where you can argue against small sample sizes, increasing age, or declining health for a lot of hitters of the Cabrera mold, this guy's production is as consistent as it comes and the numbers are a sure thing.

Round 2, #23 Overall - Ryan Braun, OF
He tested positive for WHAT? @*#&$*^#
Actually, this was a calculated risk that in a real draft could either blow up in my face or make for a hell of a late season charge. The way my twisted mind works, 2/3 of a season of Braun is going to produce better in 5 categories than a full season of about 75% of the outfielders out there. Based on last season alone (which I feel is fair, though maybe a bit inflated), 75 RBI, 22 HR, 22SB, 75 R can be had in just 400 PAs. If this were a real league with a mock bench, I'd look to supplement that pick by riding the wave of hot, undrafted outfielders like Matt Joyce and Jeff Francoeur were for the first half last year. I think I could still get 30/30 and 100/100 potential from a .300+ hitter.

Round 3, #34 Overall – Matt Holliday, OF

This was a safe, no brainer type of pick for me that ensures I still have an elite outfielder on my team while Braun is “resting.” The defending World Champion Cardinals will still have the opportunity to score a lot of runs next year and Matt Holliday will no longer play second fiddle to scoring opportunities. He’s come out against the notion that he’s an “injury prone” guy and I tend to agree. Since when does having an appendectomy and coming back 9 days later make you injury prone? I envision a return to 100/100 numbers.

Round 4, #50 Overall – Ryan Zimmerman, 3B

I was drafting him as high as round 2 last year as the 2^nd best 3B in the game behind Longoria and despite the injuries, I think he’s still that good when healthy. With all of the pitchers I’d consider top tier having already dropped off the board, I wanted to optimize my corner infield before reaching for a starter or focusing on guys who produce big in just one or two categories.

Round 5, #62 Overall – Josh Johnson, SP

I always wait on pitching, but it’s really thinning out at this point. I like Ian Kennedy, but I don’t think he can repeat his performance from last year. Instead, I’m banking on a Josh Johnson with 2010 stuff in a 2012 Marlins lineup here. When he’s healthy, he’s unhittable. His start to 2011 was amazing, and by the end of the year he was said to be performing very well against live hitting. I’ll take a risk for a top 5 pitcher at #62. 

Round 6, # 79 Overall – Adam Wainwright, SP

I decided to bolster my staff of Tommy John guys by drafting Wainwright here. My reasoning is much the same as why I picked Johnson;  top 5 potential from a guy I can get for dirt cheap. Obviously I’m taking a risk with these two, but considering how much it free’d me up to avoid pitchers early in the draft, I think it’s one worth taking.

Round 7, #90 Overall – Jhonny Peralta, SS

I have plenty of power on the corners and the OF so I wanted to reach for a middle infielder that wouldn’t necessarily hurt me here. Peralta had a bit of a late blooming breakout year in 2011, but I followed him pretty closely and I think he’s mostly legit. He won’t hurt me and if he can duplicate 2011 it will be a nice little bonus. SS drops off severely after him.

Round 8, #107 Overall – Mariano Rivera, RP

No one is more reliable than this guy at his position. The first few closers have gone off the board and I always like to position myself with an established closer who doesn’t have an injury history. Mo still has at least one more of those years left in the tank.

Round 9, #118 Overall – Howie Kendrick, 2B

My top choice went the pick before me with FS Dirt taking Dustin Ackley, but I knew I had to stick with 2B here because the position gets pretty scary after Howie Kendrick. Again, I’ve ended up with a middle infielder that won’t really hurt me. Having Pujols in that lineup can only help Kendrick.

Round 10, #135 Overall – Melky Cabrera, OF

I wanted to round out my OF with a guy that can steal me some bases without giving up much in the way of power. I’m hoping that Melky can come close to what he did in 2011, despite being on a bad offensive team in San Francisco. He’s seemed to transform his hitting style over the last two years so I’m going to roll the dice that this guy is indeed for real.

Round 11, #146 Overall – Ryan Madson, RP

I hate drafting guys without knowing what their role will be on a team, but I find it hard to believe that Ryan Madson won’t get a closers job somewhere. With Boston as a potential suitor, I like the opportunities even more. A big run of closers just went by so I wanted to get my 2^nd one before I was left looking at the scrap heap. Rivera and Madson… I’m happy.

Round 12, #163 Overall – Ervin Santana, SP

Ervin Santana will rack up wins for me just by being one of the best #4 pitchers in the game. But he’s not half bad either. Last season he posted some of the best numbers of his career but just couldn’t muster the W’s. I’m not expecting miracles, but I like him as a solid #3 starter who won’t really hurt me anywhere. 

Round 13, #174 Overall – Emilio Bonifacio, UT

Unless the Marlins make another big splash this off season, Bonifacio will have himself an everyday job next year. After last season, he’s certainly earned it. I needed some SB’s here and 150 games of Bonifacio in the #2 hole behind Reyes could get me 30+. I also like having a guy with multi position eligibility because it adds a layer of flexibility when the inevitable injury strikes.

Round 14, #191 Overall – Ivan Nova, SP

I had a handful of pitchers queue’d up in this spot, but I wound up pulling one from the bottom of my list. I chose Nova because of his impressive end to the season and the likelihood that his IPs could creep close to 200 in 2012. Barring some miracle trade or signing, Nova will still slot as a #3 starter.

Round 15, #202 Overall – Wilson Ramos, C

Nothing toughens up a young player like getting kidnapped in Venezuela. If he can survive that, surely he can log 135 or so games behind the plate. I liked his power potential last season and it seems as though he has the everyday job for the Nationals in 2012. Since I waited this long for a catcher, there aren’t a whole lot of other guys who will see enough playing time while contributing in the counting stats. I’m hoping for a breakout year with this pick.

Round 16, #219 Overall – Vance Worley, SP

Last round, so I have to go with a homer pick here. And I’m fortunate, because I was targeting Worley 2 rounds earlier when I picked Nova. The Phillies have had a history of bringing around young pitchers who show a year of success and follow it up with a dud, but IMO none of them showed the potential of Vance Worley. I had the pleasure of watching most of his starts and I can assure you the guy just makes people miss. He throws a lot of pitches which means he’ll need to work on control to throw a lot of innings, but in the Phillies lineup, a #4 pitcher can easily win 15 games.

Lunch Time Link Dump

• Next week, Phillies Nation is hosting a tour of the ballpark followed by a block party for Kisses for Kyle. I don't think I can make the tour (though I really want to), but you can bet I'll be watching the Phils v. Cardinals from McFaddens. $25 gets you an open bar from 7-9pm and $1 beers afterwards with tons of giveaways, auctions, raffles, and live music. Be there!

• Phuture Phillies put together the master of all 2011 Phillies draft recaps. They've had fantastic coverage all along and their recap really gives you a way to manage your expectations for these guys as far as ceiling and signability. Give it a read!

• You think you know your own backyard ballpark better than anyone, and then someone like Kurt Smith comes along and shows you just how wrong you are. I've browsed a few pages from the Citizens Bank Park Ballpark E-Guide, and I can assure you that there are some intricacies to the stadium that even season ticket holders don't know. Want to know where to get a $1 hot dog even when it's NOT dollar dog night? Spend $5 on this E-Guide!

• If you play fantasy baseball, chances are your league probably sucks. COSFBA runs through a list of features in fantasy baseball leagues that really knock the sport down a few notches. If making a few mouse-clicks to set your lineup each day is too much work, go play fantasy football. I'm happy to report that the world famous "Pop's Fantasy Baseball League" seems to have all managers still active and attentive this late in the season. I've been at it for about15 years and I'm pretty sure this is a first. Normally, Bean would have a team full of Phillies players on the DL right now, but even he's paying attention.

• Imagine for a second if they built Citizens Bank Park on the banks of the Delaware. I mean, sure there would hundreds of alcohol related drowning deaths each year. But is that really any different than the stabbing deaths we have outside of McFaddens now? Catching a game from McCovey Cove (preferable on a platform that also provides grilling sustenance) is definitely one for my baseball bucket list.

• Now that the end of the world has come and gone without ending, it's nice to look ahead five years to see who the best players in the game will be. I would agree that baseball seems to be experiencing a renaissance of sorts with the fresh crop of young talent entering the league over the last few seasons and into the future. I've even heard this year referred to as the "year of the prospect." Gone are most of my childhood heroes, and in comes a new crop of studs. The list provided by MLBBlogBuzz is sadly lacking Phillies players other than Domonic Brown, but half of the guys on this list will play their way out of their current situation anyway. Bookmark this one and revisit it in 5 years to see where they stand. That is, unless we're all driving around in flying cars and we're playing baseball on the moon by then.   

• I've linked in the past to the Casual Fan project where one man is catching 100+ games in a season, but equally impressive is this guy who is completing a baseball biking tour of all 30 MLB stadiums over the course of a season. I rode about 2 miles yesterday and had enough. This guy logs 30+ every day and he's only on day 65. Both tours are great examples of a free spirit just going out and living a dream. If I didn't have all this baggage holding me down (a job, a house, a wife, etc...) I'd be right there with them! 

• Lastly, did you know that this summer marks the 50th anniversary of alcohol being sold at Phillies games? Baseball in general didn't allow beer sales until the 1930s, but Philadelphia was especially dry due to the state's ridiculous (still) alcohol sale laws. In fact, beer sales at ballparks only opened up because belligerent drunk fans were sneaking their own bottles into the park and using them as projectiles. So in that respect, not much has changed.

Five Guys I Think Are For Real

Matt Joyce - OF - Tampa Bay Rays
While Sam Fuld started the season as one of the hottest players in baseball, Matt Joyce is the Rays outfielder you should have been watching. Joyce is getting regular playing time in RF and has been hovering around 1.000 OPS since early May. While his previous years in the majors never gave any indication that he was capable of such numbers, Joyce is currently hitting .340 and the RBIs keep coming at a steady rate. At a little over the 1/3 pole for the season, we can expect his BA to drop and the rest of his numbers to level off, but 25 HR, 90RBI, 10SB, .300BA is a pretty realistic expectation at this point. For a guy who started as waiver fodder for all but the deepest of leagues, that's a heck of a stat line. ESPN Player Rater currently has him as the #9 ranked OF this season.

Mike Morse - OF/1B - Washington Nationals
Forget Jayson Werth, Mike Morse is the best fantasy baseball player on the Washington Nationals this year. Critics point to the fact that he doesn't walk nearly enough, but in most leagues, that won't make a difference. His stock is rising and rising fast. With Adam LaRoche on the DL, the 1B job is his on a daily basis. ESPN currently has him as the #1 Ranked OF and 1B of the last 15 days. He's raised his BA almost 100 points since the start of May. If you think 29 is too old for a breakout season, I don't know what to tell you. Mike Morse won't steal you any bases like Werth would have, but he's carrying the team in most every other fantasy stat. 

Alexi Ogando - SP - Texas Rangers
I read a Yahoo story last week that indicated why it took so long for Ogando to make his way to the majors. Apparently he was an unwilling guilty party in some sort of human trafficking ring in Dominican Republic and Mexico. But that didn't matter to the Rangers who worked with him for years to get into the states and into the majors. After a decent year out of the pen in 2010 and a Spring Training that had him potentially pitching as a closer in 2011, the Rangers haven't had a reason to second guess putting him in the rotation as he's clearly been their best pitcher to date. Not only is he getting the job done in the W column, but he's also leading the league in WHIP! His fastball is one of the hardest in the league and his secondary stuff dances. Player Rater has him as the #7 pitcher for the whole season. Keep an eye on an innings limit toward the end of the season, but otherwise start every week.

Erik Bedard - SP - Seattle Mariners
It's been a few years since Bedard had a season worth noting. And there's really no guarantee that he finishes this season healthy, but ride the streak while you can. His season started rough, which garnered the usual moans and groans from Seatle fans, but since April 27th, he's 3-0 and going 7IP in just about every start. His last 5 games featured 7, 7, 4, 9, & 9 Ks which are a sign of the Bedard of old. If he can stay healthy for the full season, his projections are pretty solid for a #3 starter. ESPN has him as the #24 SP over the last 30 days. Give him a more starts and his numbers may look like some of the top guys in the AL. Take it all with a grain of salt of course, because his offense isn't scoring him any runs.

Fenando Salas - RP - St Louis Cardinals
The closer carousel in St. Louis finally seems to have come to an end. Salas has succeeded where Ryan Frankling, Jason Motte, and a host of others have failed. He ended May with a streak of 6 straight saves and only has one blown save on the season. But more importantly, he's not letting a whole lot of guys get on base and he misses an awful lot of bats. ESPN has him as the #3 ranked RP over the past 30 days. He's likely going to keep the role and with the awakening of Albert Pujols, chance are the Cardinals are going to be in position to win a lot of games. I expect him to be a top 10 closer for the rest of the season.

Lunch Time Link Dump

• I wear Cooperstown Collection caps almost religiously. I'd like to wear the 59fifty authentic caps, but my head is huge and I look like Placido Polanco when I put one on. That said, you'll never catch me in one of these. The obsession with stylized and fashion caps is something I will never understand. I don't mind the hats that take some liberties with the pattern, but when you start using colors the team has never donned, you've gone too far.

• Uni-Watch dissects the uniforms worn during Yesterday's Civil Rights game. It's a shame to see the Phillies bastardize their jersey so badly. From the comically large P on the hat, to the lack of a zipper front, this was a pretty poor attempt at Throwback gear. It looked more like something they ordered off some illegal website from China. Close enough that most people won't give a damn, but far from authentic.And would it really have been that hard to get a few cans of maroon spray paint for the helmets and a couple of maroon undershirts? The Braves wore authentic helmets, why couldn't we? I was, however, impressed with the Phila-Stars jerseys worn on Saturday.

•  A daring escape made by a fan out in Houston on Friday. It's dumb to run onto the field, but at least this dude seemed to have an exit strategy. It's highly doubtful that any ballpark security guard is going to be trained in the art of parkour. Unfortunately, it seems as though he was apprehended a few minutes later. 

• A few fantasy baseball tidbits for the day... Lance Berkman is coming back down to reality this month, Matt Joyce's power is for real, Adrien Beltre is still a good 3rd base option, Chipper Jones is old and falling apart again, Jose Bautista has something like 64 HRs over his last 162 games, and Matt Latos isn't as good as last year would indicate. 

• With Jimmy Rollins being the only one who doesn't know that Jimmy Rollins is in decline, I've heard a lot of talk about the Phillies taking a run at Jose Reyes this offseason. It's a fair idea and it's worth noting that while Reyes has seemingly been around for a while, he's still just entering his prime at 27. He's quietly having a very productive season by stealing tons of bases and hitting for a high average. He's a better player right now than Jimmy was at his age. The problem is likely to be the kind of money he commands. If he's looking for Carl Crawford type money, you can forget about it. But if he wants something around 5 years, $90M, the Phillies might be in the picture. Rollins will be looking for $10M+/year so the jump from Rollins to Reyes might be justifiable. The Phillies have a recent track record of taking care of their own, but Jimmy's declining production might just be the exception to the rule. 

• Former Phillie Perdro Feliz is now a Camden Rivershark. It's a true story of a guy who just loves the game too much to step away from it. While his body is aging and his skills are diminishing, Pedro didn't think it was time to hang up the spikes just yet. I commend him for continuing to play with hopes that a big league team will come calling down the road. I might even try to make it out to a Riversharks game and cheer him on. 

Fantasy Baseball, 6 Week Report

It's been a while since I've broached the fantasy baseball topic on the blog. That's primarily because all of my genius picks are either injured or performing like slugs. Naturally, the league I'm performing the best in is my 20 team, 10x10 Roto Keeper League that is worth zero dollars if I win. Big money league... I'm somewhere around 8th. Ahh, the beauty of fantasy sports: Where a month before the season, we're all winners!

Thoughts so far...

• There are very few reliable players this year. Guys who are annual locks for AVG, RBI, and HR are few and far between this year.
• You're probably winning if you quickly jumped onto the right bandwagon. Anyone who hitched their wagon to Jered Weaver and Lance Berkman are probably running away with it right now. If you locked onto Sam Fuld and Ike Davis, you're probably headed in the wrong direction.
• Injuries are as frequent as ever and have depleted some already weak positions (3B)
• Stolen bases are coming from some pretty strange places. Ian Desmond leads the majors and his career best is 17.
• Saves are as tricky as ever. The list of reliable closers is no more than 5-7. Every other job is up for grabs and managers are going with a committee more than I've ever seen.
• I was right about cheap pitching being the way to go. The Bud Norris and Justin Mastersons the world have been just as reliable as the perrenial aces.

On this day where I finally decided it's time to "blow the whole damn thing up" with a couple of my teams, here's some educational fantasy baseball links. 

• Elmhurst Pub Roundtable is a blog that I stumbled upon via a retweet. Excellent, yet quick, read for daily league players looking for matchup advice and good leads on spot starters. 

• An article from h2h Corner got me thinking about the beauty of Roto Leagues being a full year drag race to the finish. While some h2h leagues in baseball and football crown a regular season champion, then go into the playoffs, Rotisserie Baseball is the best because for the most part playoffs aren't involved. In professional sports, the best team over the course of a season doesn't win a championship very often. You can go 162-0 in baseball and get swept out of the first round by a Wild Card team. The idea of adding more teams to the playoffs only increases these odds. But in Roto Leagues, you can't just back into the playoffs and hope for a couple of monster weeks from Ryan Howard and win the whole thing. Roto Leagues keep you interested for a full 162 games when playoff teams may otherwise be set by August.

• Imaginary Diamond features semi daily fantasy profiles on players that might be worth taking a second look at. They have a ton of rankings, lists, and draft kit style information that's worth reading too. 

• Advanced Fantasy Baseball has weekly pickup advice that as far as I'm concerned has been pretty spot on. If only I followed the advice a little more. A few weeks ago I was looking at his suggestion to pick up Ryan Roberts and I thought it was nuts. .283/.400/.511 later and now I feel crazy. 

• Roto Savants is probably a little more in depth than anyone would need in a standard league. But if you have the free time to analyze how certain umpire crews and the weather are going to impact your players, this is probably your kind of site.  

Breakfast Time Link Dump!

In an effort to make these links a little more enjoyable, I'm going to be adding a little more commentary to each blurb than I have in the past. Nice suggestion, Greg!

• In Judgement Day news, a couple of nerds from U Penn developed a robot capable of throwing out the first pitch at the Phillies game last night. Part of me wants to make a joke about Skynet, but the more I think about it the less impressed I am. Really? A Penn education and a baseball throwing robot is the best you got? I'm pretty sure this very same robot came as an erector set when my dad was a kid and he never got to display it at a Phillies game. Ridiculous. 

• In response to my commentary on pistachio girl, the legendary Photographer N. shared with me a link to a friend of his' blog that takes us on a trip in the way back machine to the Phillies vendor days of 1977. Sodas for $.80 and 2 hot dogs on 1 bun! Clearly I was born in the wrong generation!

• You've probably seen this Keenan Cahill on YouTube before, but now he's rocking out with Brian Wilson and Cody Ross of the San Francisco Giants. I want to hate Brian Wilson because of that ridiculous beard, but damn do I wish that beard was pitching for my team. Videos like this make him hard to hate, check it out:

 

• To the surprise of no one, The Philly Phanatic, who recently celebrated a birthday, was named by Forbes magazine as the top mascot in sports. But you already knew that since you all read my guest post on ThatBallsOuttaHere last month! 

• Listeners of the ESPN Fantasy Focus podcast are aware of a certain theory they call "The Wandy Line." Basically, it's an arbitrary line in the rankings after which a starting pitcher isn't really worth keeping on your roster all season. Tristan Cockcroft ranked his top 100 pitchers today and I'd honestly have to say that anyone after Matt Garza isn't worth holding onto. "The Garza Line" just doesn't have that same ring to it. 

• Speaking of ESPN, the E60 piece they did on Carl Crawford this week was pretty interesting. The guy grew up in the slum of all slums, was discovered by Michael Bourn's dad and went on to become a regional MVP in Football, Basketball, and Baseball. He was good enough at football to get a scholarship to the University of Nebraska and he was drafted in the 2nd round by the Devil Rays. He was such a speedster in High School that he set records for stolen bases and didn't get caught once in his four years of school. He seems incredibly humble for such an amazing success story. 

• Cincinnati Reds pitcher Mike Leake was arrested the other day for stealing shirts from a Macy's Department store. In another article I read, it says he stole 6 shirts valued at $59.88. I make a decent living but it's still not in the same ballpark as Mike Leake. That said, even the cheapest T-shirt that I own cost about $10. I didn't even know Macys sold shirts for less than $10 each. I'm not even sure you can get a package of 6 Michael Jordan approved Hanes Undershirts for under $60! What the hell are you wearing, Leake? 

• Want an autograph of the 2010 Yankees including Joe Girardi, Derek Jeter, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Mariano Rivera, Phil Hughes, Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner, Dave Robertson, Jorge Posada, Chad Gaudin, and Robinson Cano? Looking for s stylish new pair of high heels to wear on a night out on the town with the man of your dreams? Well then, do I have the link for you! Seriously... it's an ebay auction and it's a for a good cause! 

• I mentioned it in something similar a few weeks back, but I just read today that the Los Angeles United Film Festival will be showing the Ballhawks movie about the guys who stand in the street outside Wrigley Field narrated by Bill Murray. These guys are pretty crazy, and as much as I bashed the idea last week, I'm officially adding "Ballhawk at Wrigley" to my baseball bucket list. It's right up there with "Kayak in McCovey Cove," "Visit the Field of Dreams," and "Attend a Phillies Induction to the Hall of Fame." 

• Easter is this Sunday... feel free to buy me this in lieu of dyed eggs or chocolate bunnies.

Lunch Time Link Dump

• I love reading these crazy old stories of fantasy baseball origins and history. Can you imagine a day before the internet when the only way to get inside information was to make your own drive to spring training every year, subscribe to weekly baseball publications, or to actually pay off an agent or trainer for some tips? This story of a guy who became obsessed with fantasy baseball to a point where he claims it ruined his life is a good one.

• The ending to the Manny Ramirez saga sure proved to be a good one. After making a mockery of himself for the better part of the last three years, Manny retired after hearing that he had failed another MLB drug test and was looking at a 100 game suspension. His women's fertility drug of choice is well known as a masking agent that makes other performance enhancers difficult to detect. So it's not a matter of "if" but "what" was Manny really on these last few years. Of all the players to come through the "steroid era" of baseball, Manny's case for the Hall of Fame is going to be the most controversial. He was an amazing pure hitter, but the questions of laziness, selfishness, and now drug use are going to cast a major shadow on his career. Of the entire generation of ball players I grew up watching, it's sad to think that only three hitters (Griffey, Thomas, and Thome) are regarded as "clean."

• Big autograph session this Saturday at King of Prussia Mall. Too bad everything is comically overpriced. I've seen all of these guys signing for a fraction of the numbers listed here. Plus, I'll be busy doing a 5 mile run in Valley Forge. 

• Hunt Auctions has an impressive collection of merchandise available for auction this week. Most impressive is the group of lots from Robin Roberts personal collection. I'd say that Robin Roberts induction ring from the Hall of Fame is about as unique an item as any Phillies fan could own.

• ZooWithRoy.com (great site) collaborated with @DangerGuerrero of FilmDrunk & WarmingGlow fame (also great sites) to produce a rather epic and likely accurate portrayal of the Mets 2011 Video Yearbook. 

• A nice little video of a fan getting pummeled at a Pirates game over the weekend. I'm not sure why this hasn't gotten much exposure. Clearly being Patriotic is frowned upon in Pittsburgh.

• Beyond the Box Score did an interesting series of articles in the past two weeks about retired numbers. It's funny how through the first 70 years of the decade there were only a handful and now numbers are being retired like it's going out of style. It's also interesting to see how the standard for number retirement has gone down. Could Bobby Abreu really be the next Phillies number retired? 

• An incredibly early and overzealous look at the MVP races in each league. Despite being only 11 days into the season, you still see a lot of familiar faces on the list. It really doesn't take long for the cream to rise to the top. 

Not A Bad Start...

All things considered, I don't have much to complain about today. My fantasy team sits in a manageable third place, my Phillies are scoring runs at will, and I've already had my first picture of the year posted up on "Who Does He Play For?"

You might say... "But Pat, it's only Week 1. Your fantasy team will fall apart."
Except it won't. As a matter of fact, a few of my more consistent/predictable players haven't even begun to perform yet. Mark Teixeira will continue to mash through April and while it might take him a few months before the batting average peaks, his 4 HRs and 10 RBI are already 2 more than he had in each category through the end of the month last season. Shin-Soo Choo is a lock for .300 BA, 20/20 and about 90 RBI and he is off to a horrible start. The Red Sox will eventually win baseball games (I'm predicting a weekend sweep of the Yankees, by the way!) and when they do, Jonathan Papelbon will get his saves. Partner those guys with my big pickups in Jordan Walden and Jhoulys Chacin and my fantasy team is solid as a rock right now.

And you might say... "Calm down, buddy. The Phillies played against the Astros and Mets. Not exactly powerhouses."
That's exactly right... but no other team in the NL is a powerhouse. Not enough people are saying it, but the NL isn't very good this year. For all the concerns about a lack of offense, the Phillies still have one of the most formidable ones in the league. Look around, there isn't a single team out there with a solid lineup from top to bottom. The best teams out there have two stars, and a cast of "other guys." In my opinion, our "other guys" are just better than everyone else. Ryan Howard is locked in right now and knows he has to carry the team. Jimmy Rollins is hitting well out of the 3 hole, everything Ben Francisco hits is hit hard, and Wilson Valdez hasn't crippled the team with excessive GIDPs. Cole Hamels had his obligatory early season blow up and everyone else has performed to expectations. Currently sitting atop the leader board in just about every offensive category, get used to the Phillies scoring runs in many different ways. 92 wins left before I look like a genius.

Posting was a bit slow this week, but that's primarily because I was trying to upgrade a few things and improve traffic. I've also made a pact with myself to make sure that this doesn't turn into a "Game Recap" type site every night. If you want to know how many hits Carlos Ruiz had, read a box score. I'm here for my own baseball musings... not as an amateur beat reporter.

Lunch Time Link Dump

Baseball is upon us. I'm still as optomistic as ever about the Phillies, but let's be honest, they were playing the Astros (Read: Another franchise run into the ground by Ed Wade). So while initially I planned a lengthy article highlighting all the finer points of Phillies baseball through the first three games, instead I'm going to hold off for one more series. The Mets may not be much better than the Astros, but a familiar division opponent will be a better test to see where the bar should be set. So for now, links...

• A pretty awesome article from Joe Posnanski of SI.com about moving on after the excitement of Opening Day and moving into the 162 game grind. For some fans, the season ends much sooner than it does in Philadelphia these days.

• While watching the Yankees game on Fox on Saturday, I couldn't help but notice what an enormous nerd Ken Rosenthal looked like for wearing that stupid bow tie. Guys who are 5 feet tall and have the same haircut as Pee-Wee Herman should really make better decisions regarding neck wear.

• Speaking of Yankees, don't look now but Mark Teixeira is on pace for 162 Homeruns. If that doesn't win him an MVP as I predicted, then I don't know what will. It should also win me about 4 fantasy baseball leagues. Kyle Drabek killed it on Saturday too. Both are on my team so I might be a genius.

• If you can't laugh at yourself, then really, who can you laugh at? I thought a SNY employee inserting a clip of an old Family Guy episode into the post game broadcast was pretty hilarious, but obviously it's going to cause some repercussions. It's still not as bad as the Manhattan Mini Storage ad.  

• Here's the blog of that dude who has become famous for snagging foul balls and homeruns at dozens of ballparks. I like catching batting practice on occasion and if a ball lands within arms reach, I'll make a play for it. I have some friends who get a little more intense when it comes to BP (you know who you are!). But the things this dude does take disturbing to a whole new level. 1st off, anyone with a sign begging for a ball is pathetic. 2nd, adults don't bring baseball gloves to a game. Lastly, swapping clothes mid-BP to appear to be a fan of the other team is a violation of epic proportions. No baseball is worth selling your fan-soul for. 

• Jason Stark's article on how the Phillies managed to get their starting rotation together is pretty interesting. We don't really think about it much anymore, but trading away Cliff Lee is really the only scenario that allowed the Phillies to sign him as a free agent. Funny how Ruben went from public enemy to genius. 

• The Phillies 5 starting pitchers as 76ers... could you ever imagine the Eagles doing something like this?

• In case you haven't heard, ZooWithRoy.com won ThePhield of 64 Phillies blogs. While probably not the most informative or educational blog out there, ZWR is certainly entertaining. The anonymous creator posts up plenty of baseball related tidbits without taking himself too seriously... and it's been a massive success. Maybe this time next year, I'll be looking down on the Phillies blog world from the same perch instead of losing to a site that only updates on full moons.

• I had this conversation at the bar the other day with a complete stranger, but the more this Barry Bonds case goes on, the more furious I get about the complete waste of taxpayer money that's involved. Millions upon Millions of dollars are spent on a victimless crime trying to prove perjury, yet there are thousands of unsolved/unprosecuted  murders out there. Being guilty in the court of public opinion is far more damaging to Bonds than anything a court could levy on him.

• Three fairly high profile guys already headed to the bench/DL for injuries this weekend: Evan Longoria and Jair Jurrjens strain an oblique, and Matt Holliday needs an emergency appendectomy. Probably no DL time for Holliday, but good luck finding a 3rd Baseman capable of producing in place of Longoria. Looks like 3 weeks or more is a possibility.

Pop's Fantasy Baseball Draft Review

I came into the day with a solid plan, and like anyone would, I was forced to throw it all away when I realized I had the last pick of the draft. But in all honesty, my train left the tracks long before that. Having to run a draft board and answer questions/inform the masses is way more work than a fantasy manager should have to do. I'm 100% certain that from now on, I need to hire out Vanna White to cross off names and turn letters. I spent so much time pealing stickers and arguing with my uncles over imaginary rules that I didn't really have the chance to absorb the early-middle rounds the way I would have liked to. Crossing guys off my own draft sheet was all but impossible. Nevertheless, I righted the ship midway through and feel as though I got great value for every dollar I spent. I have a few extra bucks to play with, which should make my question marks easily fixable once rosters are finalized and things get rolling along. So here's a summary of how things went...

Keeper: Mark Teixeira, 1B
I struggled with this forever, but had I not kept Tex, I would have ended up with picks 11, 12, 13 and if he was still available, I probably would have grabbed him in there anyway. His value dropped from last year because of a putrid first two months and while he's a notoriously slow starter, he'll never bat below the Mendoza line for an extended period of time like that again. I think A-Rod is on the decline and I think Robinson Cano peaked last year so I expect Tex to carry a very heavy load for NY.

Round 1 - 11th Overall - Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
It can be argued that this was really a 21st overall pick since all but one owner went with a keeper, but either way I backed my way into this pick. I was hoping for Longoria to fall that far, but with the him and the top 3 outfielders off the board, this was a no brainer. 3rd Base is Longoria, Zimmerman, Wright, A-Rod, Bautista and a whole lot of garbage. Considering BadBoysofSummer snagged both Wright and Bautista and A-Rod went undrafted, there's a whole lot of garbage owned. Jason Werth will protect Zimm in the same way Dunn did. At his age, its nice to think you have an established top tier 3rd baseman who still hasn't reached his peak.

Round 2 - 13th Overall - Shin Soo Choo, OF
It sounds like a reach, but he was really the player I targeted more than anyone else in the draft. Choo is a top 5 tool player in the game at a time when those guys are extremely lacking. I would have taken Braun and Cargo over him, but probably no one else at their value. He'll flirt with .300/30/30/100/100 and probably reach at least three of those milestones. Find me another guy with those likely stats under $30.

Round 3 - 34th Overall - Jason Heyward, OF
I drafted him last year, but got too gun shy during his early season slump. But I wasn't making that mistake this year. The price was a little high, but the way I had things set up, I could afford it with his upside. This kid is the real deal and his inner Ken Griffey Jr. is going to show. I expect him to push 30 home runs with 20 SBs, but his patience at the plate is what really gets me excited. The Braves are going to score runs this year and with a healthy team and no more 1st year jitters, Heyward should score a ton and knock a ton in.

Round 4 - 35th Overall - Gordon Beckham, 2B
I had to save a few dollars here for peace of mind and for $14, no middle infielder seemed to have more bang for his buck than Beckham. He struggled early last year but caught fire down the stretch. He's done nothing but continue that momentum during the spring. With Chase Utley going down, there's an opening amongst elite 2nd baseman and I think Beckham has a shot at it. He's showing nice pop and he'll bat 2nd in front of Adam Dunn.

Round 5 - 56th Overall - Carlos Santana, C
I tried to grab him when he came up from the minors last season but was foiled by my lack of a smart phone and a buddy who would push his own grandmother down a flight of stairs to steal a player from someone. The knee injury kept his numbers in check, but he looks fine this spring. This was a stray from my strategy, but my value catchers actually started dropping off the board before this pick. When I lost out on Matt Weiters for what would have been my 3rd straight year of disappointment, I knew I had to look there soon. Santana at 23 wasn't great value, but I'll cross my fingers and hope for the upside.

Round 6 - 57th Overall - Brian Matusz, SP
I would have preferred to wait longer for him, but $8-12 pitchers were falling off the board quickly right around here. My notes said wait until after the 5th round to get a pitcher and that's exactly what I did. Matusz is a great talent on a not so great team. But the Orioles are certainly a lot better than last year. 15 wins is probably his upside, but the value is there all day long at $10.

Round 7 - 78th Overall - Jonathan Papelbon, RP
I couldn't believe how quickly relief pitchers went. Such a strange league. I really didn't want one here, but Papelbon has nice value. He has been vulnerable the last 2 years, but he has two huge things going for him. 1) He plays for the Red Sox who will have plenty of opportunities for saves and Terry Francona has made it abundantly clear that he is their guy. 2) If he happens to get traded and they give the job to Bard, he'll go to another team as the closer. The Red Sox won't trade him away to be a middle reliever somewhere. His price is less than the elite, but he'll probably put up a higher save total than most of them because the Sox will win so many games.

Round 8 - 79th Overall - Colby Lewis, SP
Probably a round early, but this was another starting pitcher I had circled, highlighted, and underlined. The Rangers are still a great team and Lewis was their best pitcher last post season. With Cliff Lee out of town, he's now even more important. For his price, I like the high innings he's going to throw and the strikeouts he'll pick up. 15 wins is likely as well.

Round 9 - 100th Overall - Cliff Pennington, SS
Tsuyoshi Nishioka was my target for this position from the start and I missed him by 1 pick two rounds earlier. I really need to hide my notes in my own house. But I quickly moved on. I have a couple of plan B's here should things get hairy, but if $2 can net me 30 steals like he got last year, he can bat .250 all day. All the reports I read had him better than that, but the power numbers are extremely lacking. He might be my biggest surprise, or the first guy I drop.

Round 10 - 101st Overall - Johnny Venters, RP
At this point, every full time closer under $20 was off the board and I didn't have $20 anyway. For a guy who's still looking at a closer by committee job, Venters is a steal. He pitches a ton of innings, gets strikeouts by the bunches and keeps his peripheral numbers low. Everything I've read indicates that he's had a better spring than the ridiculously overpriced Craig Kimbrel so I'm holding out hope he wins the job outright. If not, I like him as a placeholder that will keep my numbers low while I lie in the grass waiting on a closer to pounce on.

Round 11 - 122nd Overall - Kyle Drabek, SP
A complete flier here, but for $1 I love the upside. He pitches in the AL East which seems to chew up and spit out most rookies, but the pedigree is there and he's worked through every level of the game fixing his mistakes and improving. His price makes him easily worth the look for the first month of the season. If he falters, there will be 10 other guys with $1 values who are worth owning. I can think of three right now I'm going to keep an eye on...

Round 12 - 123rd Overall - Jose Tabata, OF
At this point I had three names in mind: Tabata, Ryan Raburn, or Mike Morse. Raburn was my leading choice but had two things going against him... a lot of stiff competition, and last of help in any one major category. Mike Morse was the cheapest option and has really wowed some scouts since mid last season but seemed like too much of a risk. Tabata is going to bat lead off for the Pirates and will steal a bunch of bases. One magazine I read called him Shane Victorino-lite. He left me with a few dollars left under the cap which proved useful.

Players I wanted and missed...

• I really wanted to stack my outfield with 3 of the following: Gonzalez-Choo-McCutchen-Heyward-Bruce-Stubbs-Stanton in that order. I ended up with 2 of my top 4 and decided to wait on the 3rd. That move was a product of my draft position more than anything else.

• Tsuyoshi Nishioka intrigued me from the first time I read about him in January and I can't believe he hasn't been a bigger story. He's a lock to bat 2nd for the Twins and if he can get on base at the clip he has this spring, he should be big in 3 categories. As much as I like him, I could never have justified wasting a 7th round pick to get him. I was looking at him closer to round 10. 

• Jeremy Hellickson and Leo Nunez were the only two pitchers I targeted and missed out on by a mile. There were some other guys I liked, but just couldn't bring myself to pay for. Closers are so hard to come by right now and a 2nd cheap closer would have been awesome. Saves may only be one category, but I've never seen a league won by someone who completely punts them.

Category thoughts...

• I did some math and if you take my team's 2010 numbers and plug them in the offensive rankings, I'm middle of the road in every category. And that's including three guys who had under 450 ABs and 2 other guys who had disappointing years. Add in mid season acquisitions and I should be pretty well rounded.

• Pitching wise, I like my chances of getting 190+ innings from all three of my starters. Wins and Ks will come from mid season moves. But I really wish I could have snagged a Kevin Gregg like player as a 2nd closer.

Final Grade: B+
I did the best I could with what I had to work with. I hit most of my key points, but following ADPs and checklists was impossible when running the draft as well. Wish me luck!

Your 2011 Phillies: Fantasy Baseball Outlook Part 1

C - Carlos Ruiz:
The guy had the best year of his career in 2010 and is priced so cheap in most leagues that he's tempting to snatch up. But as impressive as his clutch performance has been, it doesn't earn you extra fantasy points. Single digit HRs and 50 RBI are about the going rate for any catcher with a full time job. Chooch is certainly capable of repeating his 2010, but that still doesn't make him a viable option in anything but the deepest of mixed or NL only leagues.

1B - Ryan Howard
I've gone back and forth almost a dozen times on my Ryan Howard opinion. First Base is an incredibly deep position where the difference between Adrian Gonzalez in round 2 and Justin Morneau in round 7 might not be all that much. But I have a feeling that Ryan Howard is about to find his stroke once again. His strikeout rate has dropped significantly over the last two years and his spring numbers suggest that he's putting good wood on the ball. Few of his counterparts work as hard as Howard at improving his flaws and as a guy who has been dropping down draft boards, 40 HR and 125+ RBI are starting to look like a real bargain after the 2nd round.

2B - Chase Utley
A month ago, he's the 2nd best second baseman in the game and being drafted in the first round. Now, I won him in an auction league for $12 last Friday. The knee is worrisome, but at middle infield spots, there isn't a plethora of other options better than Chase. It's still looking as if surgery is the less likely scenario and I'll predict 130 games for Chase this year. What can he possibly do in 130 games? Well in 2007 he hit .332, had 22 HRs, and 100+ Runs and RBI. A one legged Chase Utley is still capable of elite numbers for his position. While he should fall down a few rounds, he's worth it if his value is deflated enough.

SS - Jimmy Rollins
2007 Jimmy Rollins is dead. He'll never be a 30/30 guy again, and he'll never knock you in 90 runs. While some owners are likely to take a shot at him because the potential is still there for him to perform like a Jose Reyes, I'm going to tell you not to. You'll only be disappointed. While Jimmy has been regressing, the rest of the world has caught up to him. Shortstop isn't an incredibly deep position, but there are a handful of guys out there who will give you 75 R, 20SB, and 15HR which is about Jimmy's upside. Pass on Rollins and take a risk on Starlin Castro instead.

3B - Placido Polanco
Possibly the most scarce position in fantasy baseball this year, third basemen are hard to come by. After Longoria/Zimmerman/Arod/Bautista fall off the board, your options plummet. That still doesn't make Polanco a viable one. His position eligibility at 2nd base boosts his value as a middle infielder and his elbow injury isn't really anything that should concern you, but he is what he is. I love him on my real team, but wouldn't want him clogging up my fantasy team.

LF - Raul Ibanez
I'm one of the few guys who see some value here. Raul has a history of streaky behavior while in a Phillies uniform. But one thing that has been prevalent throughout his career is that a hot spring = a fast start to the season. Guess what? Raul is hitting the ball well this spring. Draft him and ride the wave until his first epic slump occurs. At the end of the year he'll put up the usual 25 HR, 85 RBI, .275 batting average but it will most certainly have its ups and downs.

CF - Shane Victorino
Power/Speed guys are hard to come by. But speed guys are becoming more prevalent. I'm not quite sure which category to put Victorino. 18HRs with 34SBs in 2010 puts him in the first category so if you think he's capable of a repeat, go for it. I still think he's a notch below guys like Andrew McCutchen and Shin-Soo-Choo, but if he can hit .280 and put up similar numbers to last year, he's worth a lot more than you might think.

RF - Ben Francisco
For the sake of this post, I'm assuming Ben Francisco is your starting RF for the entire season. He's likely going for dirt cheap in just about every league. While he's never had one particular year that jumps out at you, his 162 game career averages aren't all that bad. 18 HR and 12 SB are easily attainable, and 65 RBI are a low estimate. He'll likely start the season batting 5th which should give him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. Comparable to Jayson Werth? No, probably not. But most of the same tools are there. In a deep league, he's worth a flier.

Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Round 3

I've done 5 or 6 mock drafts and today completed my first live draft (Carlos Gonzalez and Ryan Braun falling to picks 12 and 13 is criminal). I've listened to just about every podcast I can get my hands on and I'm chomping at the bit to draft in my own league. That said, some of my juiciest sleepers will be saved for draft day... some of you have a history of stealing them from me!

I'm really souring on the idea of taking pitchers early. There are a plethora of guys who can get you 190Ks and 13 wins. I'm planning to focus my offensive strategy on AVG and HRs and my pitching strategy on ERA & Ks. The way I look at it, every other stat falls into line if you get those ones down.

OF - Ryan Raburn - Detroit Tigers
He shared time last season when Brendon Boesch went on a first half tear. But if you look at his 2nd half numbers 13 HRs and a .315 AVG over the final 70 games is pretty promising. It's all but certain that Raburn will start the season as the Tiger's left fielder. But what kind of stats can you expect from a guy who has struggled to find work for two straight years? Well, if you combine his ABs from 2009 & 2010, you get a stat line that looks like this: 31HR, 107RBI, 98 Runs in 632 ABs. A full season's worth of at bats put him at Jayson Werth like numbers. Now, the likelihood of him producing like that in a single season is doubtful. But 25HRs is pretty solid for a 3rd outfielder that is being overlooked by most fantasy owners. If you're in a league that has loose position eligibility requirements, Raburn may even qualify as a 2nd baseman. I think just about everyone would jump at the idea of getting .280/25/85 out of their 2B slot. At this point, an early season slump is the only thing that would change my mind about him.

1B - Freddie Freeman - Atlanta Braves
After experiencing with the Troy Glaus & Derek Lee's of the world, the Braves finally have their first basemen in rookie Freddie Freeman. He's been compared to a Jason Heyward "light" on more than one occasion and expecting similar numbers to Heyward is probably a stretch. But he's probably the real deal. Scouts have been touting his bat for a few years and he's hit for both power and average in his minor league stops. First Base is an incredibly deep position so he likely won't go in all drafts, but with an injury or budget constraints, Freeman could be a solid waiver wire pickup.  He'll have extremely limited pressure in ATL this year with Uggla, Heyward, McCann, Prado and Chipper Jones hitting around him, but his job is very safe. I put him in the same class as guys like James Loney and Ike Davis so if you're already that far down on your list he's worth considering.

SS - Jed Lowrie - Boston Red Sox
This one is a little far out there... even for me. At the end of last season, there was a lot of talk about the Red Sox trading away Marco Scutaro. Afterall, Lowrie hit 9 homeruns from mid August on and was a catalyst in the lineup. But those trade talks have all but disappeared. Still, Lowrie has the ability to play all 4 infield positions and the Scutaro/Pedroia combo hasn't been the most healthy in recent years. Lowrie is 26 years old and had made no excuses about his hunger for playing time. In a perfect world where salaries don't matter and Terry Francona can just plug in his best player, Lowrie would see more playing time. But just about any infield injury would make him a starting player. If you're in a really deep league and can stash him, it might pay dividends come mid season. If you just want to take a risk, you might still be able to get 15 HR and 50 RBI out of him.