It's common knowledge that Jimmy Rollins' contract is up at the end of this year and the Phillies will be in the market for a shortstop for the first time since George W Bush's first term in office. It's also common knowledge that Rollins is a guy who loves attention and loves the star treatment. The Phillies wrapped up the prime years of Jimmy's career with a rather team friendly deal back in 2006 that averaged around $9M per over 5 years. While Jimmy isn't really performing up to the same levels that he did during the first year or two of that deal, both offensively and defensively, he's certainly going to be looking for a raise going into free agency with a deal that gives him 4 or 5 more years at over $10M each. It's a steep price to pay for a guy whose career is in decline, but without much in the farm system and not much else available in the free agent market, the Phillies have backed themselves into a bit of a corner here. Or have they...
1,200 miles to the south, but within the same division lies a shortstop that has shown as much potential as Jimmy Rollins ever did in his prime. He's a career .300+ hitter who is a has been a shoe in for 20/20/80/100 throughout his career. His name is Hanley Ramirez.
Wait, are you serious? Well, yes... sort of. Hear me out on this one.
Hanley Ramirez has burnt a lot of bridges in Florida with his lackadaisical style of play and his generally poor/disrespectful attitude towards the game of baseball. He's been benched for not running out ground balls, he's been fined for showing up late to games, and he's been chastised by his teammates for giving up on balls defensively. There's a solid case to be made that Ramirez's days in a Marlins uniform may be numbered. First of all, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria has never paid a player as much as the $15M that Hanley is due next season. That kind of salary in the Marlins current financial structure would equal something like 40% of their entire payroll for 2012. With a solid crop of other young talent that includes surprise power hitter Gabby Sanchez, fan favorite Logan Morrison, and the pitching duo of Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson, ownership is going to need to save a few dollars in the future. Secondly, Hanley's poor performance essentially forced his manager Edwin Rodriguez into stepping down from the job. Interim coach Jack McKeon is well known to be a guy who simply doesn't put up with the kind of antics Hanley displays. Now, we don't know if McKeon has any intention to be the manager beyond this season, but if he does, you can rest assured that Hanley's attitude would be a major riff in the clubhouse. I'd imagine if you were to ask Marlins fans whose side they're on, the guy who won them a World Series in 2003 or the guy who jogs to first base, they'd choose the former.
So if the dude's got so many issues, what do the Phillies want with him? Well if anyone is used to a shortstop who doesn't hustle, it's Charlie Manuel and the Phillies. To a much lesser extent than Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins has had his share of lazy moments in the game and he's been benched almost as frequently. Still, though, Charlie's reputation as a player's coach has mended any hard feelings he's garnered with his shortstop. Hanley has never experienced being on a team with veteran leadership around him. When Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs are the two guys giving you a hard time, it's pretty easy to tell them where to stick it. When it's Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard... you might just listen.
As for the contract situation, Hanley Ramirez is signed through 2014 with a deal that averages $15.5M/year over the next three. But that would be his 28-30 year old seasons, or what you might consider a player's prime. $15M for a guy who plays SS and puts up the kind of numbers you expect from a top tier outfielder is chump change. Especially once you factor in the likely raise Jimmy Rollins will command. If Jimmy can be had for 3 years @ $12M and a trade for Hanley Ramirez only costs you another $3M a year plus a few prospects, my question is where do I sign.
But I'd be neglectful if I didn't address some of the downfalls to this plan. The first thing baseball folks bring up talking about Hanley Ramirez is his declining defensive skills. It's true, he is just too big of a guy to be playing shortstop. His metrics rank him as about the 4th worst defensive shortstop in baseball over the last 5 seasons (oddly enough, golden boy Derek Jeter is the worst). But, a deal that sends him to the Phillies might only require him to play SS for one more year. Placido Polanco is signed through the 2012 season with a mutual option in 2013. He would be 37 in that year so the $1M buyout is a pretty likely option. The Phillies could let Polanco walk/retire, shift Hanley over to 3rd base after 2012, and either plug the SS hole with a placeholder like Wilson Valdez or hope to fast track any one of the handful of middle infield prospects they drafted this season and have laying around the low minors. Probable, maybe not. But it's certainly possible.
And perhaps the biggest hurdle to the little dream scenario I've painted is the prospect price tag involved. Make no mistake about it, the Marlins would be looking for a pretty epic haul if they were to trade away the cornerstone of their franchise. Up the price even further considering the Marlins probably wouldn't want to trade within their own division. Fortunately, the Phillies have a pretty stout farm system, especially at the lower levels. My best guess is that a deal would require 2 top prospects who are nearly major league ready, 2 that are highly touted low level guys, and a 5th guy as a throw in. Another 5 for 1 style deal. I don't know the Phillies farm system as well as I probably should, but if I were to venture a guess, Brody Colvin (projects as a #2-3 starter), Jonathan Singleton (1B/OF), Justin DeFratus (mid 90s bullpen arm), Vance Worley (#3-4 starter), and Freddy Galvis (MI) might be in the neighborhood of what it takes to get the job done. A steep haul, but also a series of guys who we can afford to lose if it means having a slugger like Hanley in the lineup for the next 3 years.
Okay, so it's not likely. But neither was trading for Roy Halladay last season or signing Cliff Lee this offseason. He bats right (which we need), he hits for average (which we need), he plays shortstop (which we will need in about 150 days). I'm not completely out of my mind, am I?
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