A Crazy Solution for the Phillies SS of the Future?

It's common knowledge that Jimmy Rollins' contract is up at the end of this year and the Phillies will be in the market for a shortstop for the first time since George W Bush's first term in office. It's also common knowledge that Rollins is a guy who loves attention and loves the star treatment. The Phillies wrapped up the prime years of Jimmy's career with a rather team friendly deal back in 2006 that averaged around $9M per over 5 years. While Jimmy isn't really performing up to the same levels that he did during the first year or two of that deal, both offensively and defensively, he's certainly going to be looking for a raise going into free agency with a deal that gives him 4 or 5 more years at over $10M each. It's a steep price to pay for a guy whose career is in decline, but without much in the farm system and not much else available in the free agent market, the Phillies have backed themselves into a bit of a corner here. Or have they...

1,200 miles to the south, but within the same division lies a shortstop that has shown as much potential as Jimmy Rollins ever did in his prime. He's a career .300+ hitter who is a has been a shoe in for 20/20/80/100 throughout his career. His name is Hanley Ramirez.

Wait, are you serious? Well, yes... sort of. Hear me out on this one.

Hanley Ramirez has burnt a lot of bridges in Florida with his lackadaisical style of play and his generally poor/disrespectful attitude towards the game of baseball. He's been benched for not running out ground balls, he's been fined for showing up late to games, and he's been chastised by his teammates for giving up on balls defensively. There's a solid case to be made that Ramirez's days in a Marlins uniform may be numbered. First of all, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria has never paid a player as much as the $15M that Hanley is due next season. That kind of salary in the Marlins current financial structure would equal something like 40% of their entire payroll for 2012. With a solid crop of other young talent that includes surprise power hitter Gabby Sanchez, fan favorite Logan Morrison, and the pitching duo of Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson, ownership is going to need to save a few dollars in the future. Secondly, Hanley's poor performance essentially forced his manager Edwin Rodriguez into stepping down from the job. Interim coach Jack McKeon is well known to be a guy who simply doesn't put up with the kind of antics Hanley displays. Now, we don't know if McKeon has any intention to be the manager beyond this season, but if he does, you can rest assured that Hanley's attitude would be a major riff in the clubhouse. I'd imagine if you were to ask Marlins fans whose side they're on, the guy who won them a World Series in 2003 or the guy who jogs to first base, they'd choose the former.

So if the dude's got so many issues, what do the Phillies want with him? Well if anyone is used to a shortstop who doesn't hustle, it's Charlie Manuel and the Phillies. To a much lesser extent than Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins has had his share of lazy moments in the game and he's been benched almost as frequently. Still, though, Charlie's reputation as a player's coach has mended any hard feelings he's garnered with his shortstop. Hanley has never experienced being on a team with veteran leadership around him. When Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs are the two guys giving you a hard time, it's pretty easy to tell them where to stick it. When it's Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard... you might just listen.

As for the contract situation, Hanley Ramirez is signed through 2014 with a deal that averages $15.5M/year over the next three. But that would be his 28-30 year old seasons, or what you might consider a player's prime. $15M for a guy who plays SS and puts up the kind of numbers you expect from a top tier outfielder is chump change. Especially once you factor in the likely raise Jimmy Rollins will command. If Jimmy can be had for 3 years @ $12M and a trade for Hanley Ramirez only costs you another $3M a year plus a few prospects, my question is where do I sign.

But I'd be neglectful if I didn't address some of the downfalls to this plan. The first thing baseball folks bring up talking about Hanley Ramirez is his declining defensive skills. It's true, he is just too big of a guy to be playing shortstop. His metrics rank him as about the 4th worst defensive shortstop in baseball over the last 5 seasons (oddly enough, golden boy Derek Jeter is the worst). But, a deal that sends him to the Phillies might only require him to play SS for one more year. Placido Polanco is signed through the 2012 season with a mutual option in 2013. He would be 37 in that year so the $1M buyout is a pretty likely option. The Phillies could let Polanco walk/retire, shift Hanley over to 3rd base after 2012, and either plug the SS hole with a placeholder like Wilson Valdez or hope to fast track any one of the handful of middle infield prospects they drafted this season and have laying around the low minors. Probable, maybe not. But it's certainly possible.

And perhaps the biggest hurdle to the little dream scenario I've painted is the prospect price tag involved. Make no mistake about it, the Marlins would be looking for a pretty epic haul if they were to trade away the cornerstone of their franchise. Up the price even further considering the Marlins probably wouldn't want to trade within their own division. Fortunately, the Phillies have a pretty stout farm system, especially at the lower levels. My best guess is that a deal would require 2 top prospects who are nearly major league ready, 2 that are highly touted low level guys, and a 5th guy as a throw in. Another 5 for 1 style deal. I don't know the Phillies farm system as well as I probably should, but if I were to venture a guess, Brody Colvin (projects as a #2-3 starter), Jonathan Singleton (1B/OF), Justin DeFratus (mid 90s bullpen arm), Vance Worley (#3-4 starter), and Freddy Galvis (MI) might be in the neighborhood of what it takes to get the job done. A steep haul, but also a series of guys who we can afford to lose if it means having a slugger like Hanley in the lineup for the next 3 years.

Okay, so it's not likely. But neither was trading for Roy Halladay last season or signing Cliff Lee this offseason. He bats right (which we need), he hits for average (which we need), he plays shortstop (which we will need in about 150 days). I'm not completely out of my mind, am I?

The Greatest Game Ever Played.

No, I'm not talking about golf. And I'm not naive enough to say that last night's 19 inning Phillies game was actually the greatest game ever played. But the sport of baseball in general is. Nothing is as unpredictable as this game. 2,430 of them are played each year and the game has been around since 1846, and yet at any given point in time there's a distinct chance you'll see something you've never seen before. There is no clock, there is no sudden death, and there is no tie. And that's what makes the game so special. So when the Phillies take the field at 7:05 on a Wednesday night and I'm hoping that I can get home and get my first decent night's sleep in over a week, I have no idea what kind of a treat I'm in for.

• Second longest (continuous) game in Phillies history timewise (6 hrs, 11 min). Four minutes shy of the record! 45,706 people started out there, but I'd estimate about 1/3 of them were gone by the 10th, and another 1/3 left on the Bruce HR. All in, if I had to guess, I'd say less than 10,000 were there to see Ibanez drive the ball to center and Jimmy trot home. If you know someone who claims to have been there, chances are they're lying (except me, you know me!)

• A bad day from Roy Halladay beats a good day from just about anyone else. The Reds were a singles machine for much of the first 7 innings which ran up Roy's pitch count and did some damage to his WHIP, but not a single ball was hit all that hard. A handful of well placed slap hits through gaps led to 3 runs, which was only the 3rd time all year that Roy had let up more than two.

• In 2010, that Jay Bruce HR is the straw that breaks the camel's back. In 2008, the Ryan Howard return shot is a foregone conclusion. It's nice to see shades of 2008 again...

• The stolen bases are a bit concerning. Three guys stole 2nd off Chooch last night and none of the plays were really all that close. 

• 9 1/3 IP, 5Ks, 1 Hit. That's the combined stat line of Kyle Kendrick, JC Romero, David Herndon, Danys Baez, and Wilson Valdez. The crowd groaned as each of them ran in from the bullpen, but collectively they got the job done. 

• Defense saved this game. Jimmy Rollins, whose defense has been questioned on more than one occasion this season, makes no fewer than 3 plays from short that completely save the game. Ryan Howard stretches and scoops everything that comes near him at first base. David Herndon makes a play in the 11th with the bases loaded that goes down in the scorecard as (1-3), but is far from routine and he's the only guy on the field with a shot at getting the out. 

• As the innings wear on, you go through a roller coaster of emotions. 1-3: Well, the offense is hitting tonight, that's certainly better than the last time we saw Travis Wood! 4-9: Man, Roy is really getting dinked and dunked here. There's a good chance this one get's away from us! 10: That HR is the game... no wait! 11-13: Come on! It's been almost an hour since the last time either team got a hit! 14-17: This could be something special. 18-19: This IS something special. Confidence --> Pessimism --> Annoyance --> Optimism -->Pride --> Feeling like you witnessed history.

• The Upper Deck was completely cleared by the 15th. The Rooftop wasn't far behind. Doc's Patients came down from their perch and parked right near us. Another two or three innings and I could have seen them closing Ashburn Alley and the outfield all-together just to get the place clean for the 1PM start today!

• Baez was told he was done after 3 innings, at which point he said "No." Usually that trick only works for Roy Halladays, but Charlie was out of other options. At that point, Valdez would have likely came in the game anyway as they were completely out of other options. The fact that Baez went the longest outing of his career, and threw 73 pitches earns him a complete reprieve from any negative comments until at least the All-Star Break. 

• Valdez throws 10 pitches, 5 for strikes. Romero throws 16, 4 for strikes. I would suspect that JC Romero is dangerously close to being cut... if he wasn't a lefty.

• Around the 11th inning, it became pretty clear that a position player was likely to pitch. Chances are Charlie had already sent today's starter, Cliff Lee, home for the night and with Oswalt coming off a recent injury, Hamels being a creature of routine, and Worley already complaining about tiredness, there were no other options. When Baez goes 5, it's only delaying the inevitable. My first thought is that Valdez is the likely candidate. He has a cannon for an arm at 2nd and there is literally no one else on the team who has pitched. I later heard on Twitter that Valdez had thrown a few years back in a Dominican League game and that Ross Gload had tossed one in 2008, but with a torn hip muscle he wasn't an option.

• Chooch moving to third was the surprise of the night, though. I thought I remembered hearing that he was a 2nd baseman in some past/minor league life, but BaseballReference only shows 1B and OF as positions he's played. Moving him to 3rd and putting Polanco at 2nd was a shocker for me. Watching him motor down the third base line after a foul ball was baseball at it's finest.

• I can't help but think that the Reds had another pitcher available. I haven't heard any word on it, but they only tossed 7 guys and they used 21 players total. Assuming 4 starters weren't available, was Carlos Fisher really the last guy they had left in the pen? When he stepped to the plate in the top of the 19th I was shocked that they were going to march him back out there for a 6th inning.  He was visibly done.

• Before stepping foot on the mound, Valdez is already having a career night. 3 for 6 with a double, and two amazing take out slides at second base. I give the guy crap all the time for his propensity to ground into a double play, but he's otherwise fundamentally sound. I could see him coaching somewhere when his career wraps up. 

• But then the guy threw 90MPH. 90! Tim Wakefield keeps finding work and I'm not sure he's ever sniffed 90! Valdez even shook off signs from catcher Dane Sardhina! According to his post game interview, he mixed a high 80s fastball with a low 80s sinker. He got the reigning NL MVP to fly out, he pegged Scott Rolen to much delight, and he got Jay Bruce (who was 3-7 with 3 RBI at that point) to pop up. Unbelievable and worthy of this T-shirt (coincidentally, it was available WELL before last night's game.)

• According to ESPN, Wilson Valdez is the first person to start a game in the field and earn the win as a pitcher since Babe Ruth. Yes, Wilson Valdez will forever find himself as part of a trivia question that includes BABE RUTH. 

It might be premature to say that last night's game will be the one to define the season, but my knee jerk reaction is to say it already has.

For even more tidbits of information and statistical oddities, check Jason Stark's column over at ESPN.com

View From The Seats... Game #4: Mets 7, Phillies 1.

First game review from the stadium of the year... and it was a hell of a night for us Green Plan-ers! After some ridiculous traffic due to a Sixers game, I got in the gates just minutes before game time. Extra Large McDonalds T-Shirt? Sure, why not. I grabbed a scorecard and his the seats. Section 145, row 4... home away from home!

• It was cold. I said that last week at the Exhibition Game, but this was a new kind of cold. Biting 30mph winds that made my thighs feel like ice cubes and my ankle socks were probably one of the worst decisions I've ever made.

• But unlike most people, I don't think that had much impact on the game. Cole Hamels got pinched early, but he was missing spots far too often to have a legitimate complaint. He drilled Pagan in the first after brushing him back a few times, and only showed command in his 9 pitch 2nd inning. The third is all on his shoulders for rushing his delivery and trying to speed up the game too much. The Mets were just not willing to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone. Hamels has this strange problem with recovering after a few mistakes. When he struggles early, you can pretty much chalk it up to the 1 out of 5 games where he throws a clunker. Now that this one is out of the way, I expect 4 consecutive Ws out of him! The one positive: Hamels' velocity seemed up around 95mph with the fastball.

• Chris Young wasn't particularly sharp either, but you wouldn't know that from the way the Phillies played him. He was tossing fastballs in the mid 80s right down the middle of the plate and the Phils were just straight missing the ball. It was embarrassing watching Shane hack at balls feet outside the zone. Still, he threw 103 pitches in 5.1 innings. He was just as far outside the zone as Hamels, only the Phillies weren't as patient. I don't know what it's like to see a 7' ogre throwing the ball downhill in your direction, but for all his size, his pitches didn't seem to have a lot on them.

• The wind was bad. During a food break in Ashburn Alley, i nearly watched my hoagie and full bottle of water go for a ride when I put them down to grab napkins. I've never seen it whip through there that badly. That said,  I'm not sure that's the reason Ryan Howard's first inning bomb went foul or why Ben Francisco saw two balls get tracked down at the top of the wall. Still, I don't think it's good to be swinging for the fences in that kind of weather. The Mets got their job done with only one extra base hit.

• Raul Ibanez has a bit of a rag arm. Having a RF who is never going to throw someone out at the plate could lose the Phillies a game or two down the road this season.

• Shane Victorino takes the most ridiculous lines to balls hit his way. Watch him and you'll see that he always runs himself left or right for positioning and then forward or back for depth. I'll choke on a pretzel is I ever see him run to a spot. 

• We're concerned over guys like Michael Martinez and Wilson Valdez in the field, but the Mets have 3 of them in their starting lineup. Brad Emaus, Scott Hairston, and Mike Nickeas 

• Speak of the devil...Wilson Valdez grounded into a double play. I'll throw up $5 if anyone wants to take the under on 17.5 DPs for Exxon this year?

• Hold your breath... I'm about to give Jimmy Rollins credit! Of all the guys on the team, he definitely had the best ABs tonight. He worked counts pretty well and every ball he hit was hit hard. Plus, on a grounder to 2nd he ran the bases well trying to break up the 2nd baseman's play. He must read my blog for tips!

Next View from the Seats: Saturday, Aprils 16th vs.the Marlins!

Your 2011 Phillies: Fantasy Baseball Outlook Part 1

C - Carlos Ruiz:
The guy had the best year of his career in 2010 and is priced so cheap in most leagues that he's tempting to snatch up. But as impressive as his clutch performance has been, it doesn't earn you extra fantasy points. Single digit HRs and 50 RBI are about the going rate for any catcher with a full time job. Chooch is certainly capable of repeating his 2010, but that still doesn't make him a viable option in anything but the deepest of mixed or NL only leagues.

1B - Ryan Howard
I've gone back and forth almost a dozen times on my Ryan Howard opinion. First Base is an incredibly deep position where the difference between Adrian Gonzalez in round 2 and Justin Morneau in round 7 might not be all that much. But I have a feeling that Ryan Howard is about to find his stroke once again. His strikeout rate has dropped significantly over the last two years and his spring numbers suggest that he's putting good wood on the ball. Few of his counterparts work as hard as Howard at improving his flaws and as a guy who has been dropping down draft boards, 40 HR and 125+ RBI are starting to look like a real bargain after the 2nd round.

2B - Chase Utley
A month ago, he's the 2nd best second baseman in the game and being drafted in the first round. Now, I won him in an auction league for $12 last Friday. The knee is worrisome, but at middle infield spots, there isn't a plethora of other options better than Chase. It's still looking as if surgery is the less likely scenario and I'll predict 130 games for Chase this year. What can he possibly do in 130 games? Well in 2007 he hit .332, had 22 HRs, and 100+ Runs and RBI. A one legged Chase Utley is still capable of elite numbers for his position. While he should fall down a few rounds, he's worth it if his value is deflated enough.

SS - Jimmy Rollins
2007 Jimmy Rollins is dead. He'll never be a 30/30 guy again, and he'll never knock you in 90 runs. While some owners are likely to take a shot at him because the potential is still there for him to perform like a Jose Reyes, I'm going to tell you not to. You'll only be disappointed. While Jimmy has been regressing, the rest of the world has caught up to him. Shortstop isn't an incredibly deep position, but there are a handful of guys out there who will give you 75 R, 20SB, and 15HR which is about Jimmy's upside. Pass on Rollins and take a risk on Starlin Castro instead.

3B - Placido Polanco
Possibly the most scarce position in fantasy baseball this year, third basemen are hard to come by. After Longoria/Zimmerman/Arod/Bautista fall off the board, your options plummet. That still doesn't make Polanco a viable one. His position eligibility at 2nd base boosts his value as a middle infielder and his elbow injury isn't really anything that should concern you, but he is what he is. I love him on my real team, but wouldn't want him clogging up my fantasy team.

LF - Raul Ibanez
I'm one of the few guys who see some value here. Raul has a history of streaky behavior while in a Phillies uniform. But one thing that has been prevalent throughout his career is that a hot spring = a fast start to the season. Guess what? Raul is hitting the ball well this spring. Draft him and ride the wave until his first epic slump occurs. At the end of the year he'll put up the usual 25 HR, 85 RBI, .275 batting average but it will most certainly have its ups and downs.

CF - Shane Victorino
Power/Speed guys are hard to come by. But speed guys are becoming more prevalent. I'm not quite sure which category to put Victorino. 18HRs with 34SBs in 2010 puts him in the first category so if you think he's capable of a repeat, go for it. I still think he's a notch below guys like Andrew McCutchen and Shin-Soo-Choo, but if he can hit .280 and put up similar numbers to last year, he's worth a lot more than you might think.

RF - Ben Francisco
For the sake of this post, I'm assuming Ben Francisco is your starting RF for the entire season. He's likely going for dirt cheap in just about every league. While he's never had one particular year that jumps out at you, his 162 game career averages aren't all that bad. 18 HR and 12 SB are easily attainable, and 65 RBI are a low estimate. He'll likely start the season batting 5th which should give him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. Comparable to Jayson Werth? No, probably not. But most of the same tools are there. In a deep league, he's worth a flier.