Yawn... A solid 25 days now, I've been hiding in my cave. Partially because my beloved Phillies playoff collapse had soured me on the prospects of writing anything positive about baseball, and partially because I know that with the calendar rolling over into November, free agent and trade markets will once again have me immersed in baseball 24/7 soon enough. And while the interesting story lines technically haven't stopped since the Phillies last played (Nelson Cruz now holds the title of biggest World Series goat in my life time), I have a good feeling that the next two months will require my undivided attention.
Draft Picks or Keep the Old Guys?
Yesterday, MLBTradeRumors procured the Elias Sports Bureau Rankings list which indicates where each available free agent stands and therefore what kind of compensation can be expected should said free agent sign elsewhere. With three Type A free agents (Jimmy Rollins, Roy Oswalt, and Ryan Madson), and two Type B free agents (Raul Ibanez, and Brad Lidge), the Phillies can expect a pretty big haul in draft pick compensation should their free agents decline arbitration and flee to greener pastures. If a player is offered arbitration and a deal cannot be reached by December 7th, should that player sign with another team, the other team must provide high round draft picks in the following year's draft as compensation. For a team that has spun highly touted picks into gold in recent years, the idea of having more than a handful of choices in the top 50 for this year's amateur draft must have Ruben Amaro salivating at the mouth.
As it stands right now, it seems likely that the Phillies will offer arbitration to Madson and Rollins and both will likely decline. The other three are up in the air. While I feel there is a certain depth value in having guys like Ibanez, Oswalt, and Lidge on your team, youth may be just as important. Of the five names mentioned above, I predict that no more than two of them will return to the Phillies and you might be shocked to hear that I think those two will be Raul Ibanez and Ryan Madson; the youngest and oldest of the group.
First of all, why not the other guys? Rollins is going to get a few aggressive offers this off-season from other clubs and while I think the Phillies will attempt to bring him back, I ultimately don't see them going 4+ years on another contract and Jimmy will hold fast to his demands. With a fairly strong finish to the season, Lidge will be looking for another full time closer job and while he may not get one guaranteed, a number of teams will be interested in his potential. Finally, Oswalt is an interesting scenario only because his market value is probably going to be pretty similar to what he would have gotten in arbitration from the Phillies anyway. With pitching being scarce this off-season, another contender will likely offer Oswalt multiple years in the double digits. Expect all three of these roles to be filled with youthful candidates. Young pitchers will be given every opportunity to become this year's KyleKendrick/JAHapp/VanceWorley and another Valdez/Martinez combo will man the left side with a possible sprinkling of Freddy Galvis.
Madson enters free agency for the first time in his career in a year where the market is flooded with guys that have closer experience. Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell, Francisco Rodriguez, Francisco Cordero, and Matt Capps top the list of guys with significant closing experience, but that list also includes Jon Rauch, Joe Nathan, and Frank Francisco. Every one of those guys has more experience in a 9th inning role than Ryan Madson. And while we know him as the guy who as recently as last year was tossing 96 on the radar gun, I'm not so sure he's viewed by rival GMs as an elite closer. Not to say that the Phillies will be able to get him at a discount, but I think the price given his lack of long term experience and his health issues could lead to a lesser contract than what Madson and Scott Boras are expecting for the 31 year old.
As for Ibanez, let's just say that the market for reasonably priced bench help isn't quite as robust as it is for a closer. Despite being 40 years old, his 20 HRs and 84 RBI were invaluable last season. His days as a multimillion dollar player are through, but one last swan song on the bench of a contender might be his only option at this point. When he joined the Phillies in 2009, two things were missing from his quietly pleasant career: an All-Star appearance and a WS Ring. If Raul wants to take one more crack at it, I think he'd be welcomed back to the Phillies for a Matt Stairs-like $1.5-2M to be given one last shot at that World Series. Otherwise, I think he's looking more at a one day contract with the Mariners and retirement.
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