The past 10 days or so, a group of Fantasy Baseball bloggers and myself took part in a slow crawl of a mock draft to get the ball rolling on early discussions and predictions (full chat transcript here if you're actually interested in reading). Our group consisted of 14 teams from the Baseball Bloggers Alliance drafting in a 14 team mixed league with no bench but a utility spot and a pair of general pitchers. Needless to say, the competition was a bit more stiff than your standard mom & pop fantasy league, but all in all I think I held my own quite well.
C - Wilson Ramos
1B - Miguel Cabrera
2B - Howie Kendrick
SS - Jhonny Peralta
3B - Ryan Zimmerman
OF - Ryan Braun
OF - Matt Holliday
OF - Melky Cabrera
UT - Emilio Bonifacio
SP - Josh Johnson
SP - Adam Wainwright
SP - Ervin Santana
RP - Mariano Rivera
RP - Ryan Madson
P - Ivan Nova
P - Vance Worley
In the end, I probably took a few more injury/youth/PED risks than I ever would in a real draft, but I would be willing to march into battle with this lineup any day of the week. I've always prided myself in my ability to supplement my draft mistakes with the picking up of rising talent off the waiver wire (see Matt Joyce and Mike Morse last season). I have the upside of having the MVP of both leagues and a Cy Young winner on my team and I've mixed in a few "safe" guys to hedge my bets on.
For FULL analysis on the draft, check out BleacherGM over the next week or so for their round by round take on which teams look the best, which positions are looking shallow, and where some good value can be found for the 2012 season! Special thanks to all of the guys I drafted along with for the invite and the good conversation!
Below you'll find my take on each of the guys I selected:
Round 1 #6 Overall – Miguel Cabrera, 1B
Tough one here as my gut was telling me to look at a 5 tool guy, but i promised myself that this year aside from Pujols, Miguel Cabrera would be the only other 1st Baseman that I would reach for in the first round. I don't think anyone else in baseball is such a lock for 30+ HRs, 100+ RBI, contends for a batting title and above all stays healthy. Where you can argue against small sample sizes, increasing age, or declining health for a lot of hitters of the Cabrera mold, this guy's production is as consistent as it comes and the numbers are a sure thing.
Round 2, #23 Overall - Ryan Braun, OF
He tested positive for WHAT? @*#&$*^#
Actually, this was a calculated risk that in a real draft could either blow up in my face or make for a hell of a late season charge. The way my twisted mind works, 2/3 of a season of Braun is going to produce better in 5 categories than a full season of about 75% of the outfielders out there. Based on last season alone (which I feel is fair, though maybe a bit inflated), 75 RBI, 22 HR, 22SB, 75 R can be had in just 400 PAs. If this were a real league with a mock bench, I'd look to supplement that pick by riding the wave of hot, undrafted outfielders like Matt Joyce and Jeff Francoeur were for the first half last year. I think I could still get 30/30 and 100/100 potential from a .300+ hitter.
He tested positive for WHAT? @*#&$*^#
Actually, this was a calculated risk that in a real draft could either blow up in my face or make for a hell of a late season charge. The way my twisted mind works, 2/3 of a season of Braun is going to produce better in 5 categories than a full season of about 75% of the outfielders out there. Based on last season alone (which I feel is fair, though maybe a bit inflated), 75 RBI, 22 HR, 22SB, 75 R can be had in just 400 PAs. If this were a real league with a mock bench, I'd look to supplement that pick by riding the wave of hot, undrafted outfielders like Matt Joyce and Jeff Francoeur were for the first half last year. I think I could still get 30/30 and 100/100 potential from a .300+ hitter.
Round 3, #34 Overall – Matt Holliday, OF
This was a safe, no brainer type of pick for me that ensures I still have an elite outfielder on my team while Braun is “resting.” The defending World Champion Cardinals will still have the opportunity to score a lot of runs next year and Matt Holliday will no longer play second fiddle to scoring opportunities. He’s come out against the notion that he’s an “injury prone” guy and I tend to agree. Since when does having an appendectomy and coming back 9 days later make you injury prone? I envision a return to 100/100 numbers.
Round 4, #50 Overall – Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
I was drafting him as high as round 2 last year as the 2nd best 3B in the game behind Longoria and despite the injuries, I think he’s still that good when healthy. With all of the pitchers I’d consider top tier having already dropped off the board, I wanted to optimize my corner infield before reaching for a starter or focusing on guys who produce big in just one or two categories.
Round 5, #62 Overall – Josh Johnson, SP
I always wait on pitching, but it’s really thinning out at this point. I like Ian Kennedy, but I don’t think he can repeat his performance from last year. Instead, I’m banking on a Josh Johnson with 2010 stuff in a 2012 Marlins lineup here. When he’s healthy, he’s unhittable. His start to 2011 was amazing, and by the end of the year he was said to be performing very well against live hitting. I’ll take a risk for a top 5 pitcher at #62.
Round 6, # 79 Overall – Adam Wainwright, SP
I decided to bolster my staff of Tommy John guys by drafting Wainwright here. My reasoning is much the same as why I picked Johnson; top 5 potential from a guy I can get for dirt cheap. Obviously I’m taking a risk with these two, but considering how much it free’d me up to avoid pitchers early in the draft, I think it’s one worth taking.
Round 7, #90 Overall – Jhonny Peralta, SS
I have plenty of power on the corners and the OF so I wanted to reach for a middle infielder that wouldn’t necessarily hurt me here. Peralta had a bit of a late blooming breakout year in 2011, but I followed him pretty closely and I think he’s mostly legit. He won’t hurt me and if he can duplicate 2011 it will be a nice little bonus. SS drops off severely after him.
Round 8, #107 Overall – Mariano Rivera, RP
No one is more reliable than this guy at his position. The first few closers have gone off the board and I always like to position myself with an established closer who doesn’t have an injury history. Mo still has at least one more of those years left in the tank.
Round 9, #118 Overall – Howie Kendrick, 2B
My top choice went the pick before me with FS Dirt taking Dustin Ackley, but I knew I had to stick with 2B here because the position gets pretty scary after Howie Kendrick. Again, I’ve ended up with a middle infielder that won’t really hurt me. Having Pujols in that lineup can only help Kendrick.
Round 10, #135 Overall – Melky Cabrera, OF
I wanted to round out my OF with a guy that can steal me some bases without giving up much in the way of power. I’m hoping that Melky can come close to what he did in 2011, despite being on a bad offensive team in San Francisco. He’s seemed to transform his hitting style over the last two years so I’m going to roll the dice that this guy is indeed for real.
Round 11, #146 Overall – Ryan Madson, RP
I hate drafting guys without knowing what their role will be on a team, but I find it hard to believe that Ryan Madson won’t get a closers job somewhere. With Boston as a potential suitor, I like the opportunities even more. A big run of closers just went by so I wanted to get my 2nd one before I was left looking at the scrap heap. Rivera and Madson… I’m happy.
Round 12, #163 Overall – Ervin Santana, SP
Ervin Santana will rack up wins for me just by being one of the best #4 pitchers in the game. But he’s not half bad either. Last season he posted some of the best numbers of his career but just couldn’t muster the W’s. I’m not expecting miracles, but I like him as a solid #3 starter who won’t really hurt me anywhere.
Round 13, #174 Overall – Emilio Bonifacio, UT
Unless the Marlins make another big splash this off season, Bonifacio will have himself an everyday job next year. After last season, he’s certainly earned it. I needed some SB’s here and 150 games of Bonifacio in the #2 hole behind Reyes could get me 30+. I also like having a guy with multi position eligibility because it adds a layer of flexibility when the inevitable injury strikes.
Round 14, #191 Overall – Ivan Nova, SP
I had a handful of pitchers queue’d up in this spot, but I wound up pulling one from the bottom of my list. I chose Nova because of his impressive end to the season and the likelihood that his IPs could creep close to 200 in 2012. Barring some miracle trade or signing, Nova will still slot as a #3 starter.
Round 15, #202 Overall – Wilson Ramos, C
Nothing toughens up a young player like getting kidnapped in Venezuela. If he can survive that, surely he can log 135 or so games behind the plate. I liked his power potential last season and it seems as though he has the everyday job for the Nationals in 2012. Since I waited this long for a catcher, there aren’t a whole lot of other guys who will see enough playing time while contributing in the counting stats. I’m hoping for a breakout year with this pick.
Round 16, #219 Overall – Vance Worley, SP
Last round, so I have to go with a homer pick here. And I’m fortunate, because I was targeting Worley 2 rounds earlier when I picked Nova. The Phillies have had a history of bringing around young pitchers who show a year of success and follow it up with a dud, but IMO none of them showed the potential of Vance Worley. I had the pleasure of watching most of his starts and I can assure you the guy just makes people miss. He throws a lot of pitches which means he’ll need to work on control to throw a lot of innings, but in the Phillies lineup, a #4 pitcher can easily win 15 games.
