1/10th Season Report... Not Good

I had to do a double take when glancing at the NL East standings. How are the Phillies 7-9? I mean, how did they manage to win 7 games? The only one I remember was Opening Day in Pittsburgh! The other 6 had to be forfeits, right?

With 16 games (and a couple innings of standard Kyle Kendrick ball as I write this), the optimist in me wants to say that they really aren't that far off the pace of the two 8-8 starts that wound up in World Series appearances in 2008 and 2009. But the realist in me points to the fact that those Phillies teams scored 74 and 85 runs through 16 games  (4.6 and 5.3 per game) in their respective years, not 43 (2.7/game) as they have in 2012. And just think... we used to call 74 runs a slow start!

While previous springs starts have been disappointing, the Phillies always gave you the feeling that as the weather picked up, so would the bats. A few 80 degree days and a few Jimmy Rollins pop ups might start to clear the fence, a few Placido Polanco line drives would find a gap and roll to the wall, and Ryan Howard would once again mash taters. But there's no reason to believe any of that will happen as the weather changes this year. The Phillies aren't losing close games, or making tough outs. They're getting a 2 spot put up on them in the first inning and then proceeding to flail away at the ball for 8 more innings. No one is innocent:

• Jimmy Rollins - Mr. Catalyst just earned just his 2nd extra base hit of the season last night. He's being out-slugged (just .286) by every starter not named Placido AND three of the 5 starting pitchers. He has 13 strikeouts which puts him on pace to nearly double his career average. The ridiculous number of infield fly balls he produces is probably right in line with his career average. Plus, his range to his right already seems to be slipping.
• Placido Polanco - has only reached base 12 times this season and one of them was a HBP. His ground ball rate is nearly double his fly ball rate. His modest power has disappeared seemingly over night and there's nothing to point at other than his large head and his age.
• John Mayberry Jr. - has been replaced as a starter by a 34 year old with zero power. He's struck out in a third of his at bats, has zero walks, and zero homeruns. He's not a major league baseball player. You can only pull a Jason Werth out of your hat once every decade or so. The Phils are wasting their time by not letting Domonic Brown flail in the majors like Mayberry does.
• Hunter Pence - is pressing at the plate. If anyone on this team should be familiar with playing on a team that can't hit, you'd think it would be Pence having come from the Astros. After a decent start, he's been subpar defensively in right field and is dropping to his knees during his swing. And now he's day to day with a shoulder injury. Yippee!
• Juan Pierre - he has 3 SBs, 1 CS, 1 pick off, and at least one other obvious out that was called safe. He's a two trick pony (singles, and steals) and he's really not that good at one of them.
• Carlos Ruiz - looks about 35 pounds overweight. Seriously, look at him... I can't be the only one who sees this!
• Cliff Lee - suffering his almost yearly "abdominal thing." I think it's stupid to blame this on innings or pitch counts as it's only 3 more balls than he threw in his first start of the year, but Lee still owes me for choking away a lead in the playoffs last year so I'm including him on this list just for the hell of it.
• Kyle Kendrick - he's Kyle Kendrick.
• Joe Blanton - has already burnt his one dominant start of the season. He's got maybe 3 or 4 quality starts left in him, the rest are just innings to be eaten.
• Michael Stutes - fell apart down the stretch last season, is back to doing more of the same.
• Laynce Nix - is all bicep and no baseball power. He could be the best Citizens Bank Park Security Guard in history, but he's not much of a ball player.
• Ty Wigginton - If you play 3 or 4 defensive positions poorly, does that really make you capable of playing those positions? He's really just a notch above a trash can laying on it's side at 3rd base.
• Jim Thome - He's worked more 3 ball counts than almost anyone on the team. Unfortunately, almost all of them have ended in a K. His bat looks slow and his judgement is failing him. He's 101 strikouts away from passing Reggie Jackson's career record so maybe they should just let him play every day and give the fans a record to look forward to.
• Charlie Manuel - loyal to a fault. He marches his guys out there in positions we know they're going to fail partially because that's how he plays the game and partially as a way to stick it to Ruben. "Find me a better hitter, and I'll plug him in instead!"

• Bonus: Both Matt Kemp and Josh Hamilton have more homeruns than the entire Phillies team.  Andre Ethier and Kemp combined have driven in more runs than the Phillies have scored.

So as the Phillies put up a zero runs against a guy who was getting a spot start from the bullpen, and as they look to wrap up their 10th game of scoring 2 or fewer runs, you can't help but to think that all the Chase Utleys and Ryan Howards in the world can't right this ship right now. On the bright side, if you're someone who likes getting to bed early, all these sub 3 hour games sure are nice for you!

So We're A Small Ball Team Now?

I write this as the Phillies launch a pair of HRs off Mark Buehrle and Joe Blanton (Ace?) throws 7 baffling innings against the Miami Marlins, but the sentiment is one that will carry throughout the season: The Phillies are a small ball club now.

I assume that when you google "small ball," the box score and highlights from yesterday's Phillies game show up in the search results. 14 base hits (only three of which were for extra bases), three stolen bases (though Juan Pierre was obviously out and I'll be counting that as a CS when we tally the totals from my prediction post!), and even a dinker off the pitcher that rolled into left field. The Phils nearly doubled their season run total in a single game with the whole team getting on the slap hit train.

I like it for a number of reasons: This pitching staff and defense will only require a handful of runs from the offense to win anyway, your big bats are obviously out of commission right now, and the last two World Series Champions have been the product of timely consistent hitting as much as solid pitching.But most importantly in my eyes, yesterday's game represents a change in Phillies philosophy at the plate. Charlie Manuel commented early in the offseason that he wished for his players to move towards being a better OBP team. The pieces on this team are taylor made for small ball. They have guys who are capable of and have produced in the past .300 AVG seasons, they have smart and quick base runners who can move first to third or scored from second (Jimmy Rollins tonight being the exception), they have slap hitters in Shane Victorino and Juan Pierre who are halfway out of the box when they make contact, and they have light bats whose only chance to remain in the majors is to find gaps in Placido Polanco and Freddy Galvis. Yesterday's single-a-thon raised the team's BA 38 points on the season.

I for one, welcome the new forumla.

15 Bold (and Likely Inaccurate) Phillies Predictions for 2012

1. 94 Wins, 6^th straight NL East title… and it’ll be easier than you think.
2. Juan Pierre will steal 30 bases… and get caught stealing 25 other times. I’m fine with his slap hitting singles style of play, but for a guy who has had over 6300 PA in the leadoff position (85% of all his PAs), you’d think that his propensity for scoring runs would be a little higher. Only three times in his career has he scored more than 100 runs (the last being 2004), despite playing for a handful of playoff teams during that time.  He’s led the league in SBs three times, but led in CS seven including the past two season in the AL. Spring numbers, though limited, indicate that we can expect more of the same and Rollins moving down to 3^rd in the lineup suggests that we may see more than a few failed attempts in the first inning. You’ll see me complaining about Juan Pierre almost as often as I did about Wilson Valdez last year
3. No fans will run on the field at CBP this year! I think we’ve finally learned our lesson and with the exception of a possible rain delay, tarp slip-n-slide attempt (which face it, most of us would love to do!) fans will stay off the field for the entire season. Naturally, we will still be referenced as the gold standard when fans misbehave in a place like Milwaukee.
4. You will find yourself muttering the phrase “I miss Jamie Moyer” at some point in the 2012 season.  Whether it’s because the Rockies’ number 2 guy is lighting the world on fire with his 70-80mph stuff or if Vance Worley and Joe Blanton are just that disappointing, we’ll wish Jamie Moyer was wearing red pinstripes at some point this season.
5. Dom Brown will have twice the PAs in 2012 as he did in 2011. I just read David Murphy tweet that with Juan Pierre batting leadoff, the Phillies could potentially trot out 5 consecutive batters who fail to hit 10 HRs in a season (Ruiz, Galvis, Pitcher, Pierre, Polanco).  By June, power will be at a premium. One injury to anyone in the OF, and I think you have to call up Dom Brown for regular playing time if for no other reason than to add a little spark to what could potentially be a dull lineup.
6. Phillies Fans won’t travel to DC as well as expected. Gas is too expensive. Hell, I had trouble selling the 20 tickets I bought to friends despite usually taking a bus load of 30-40 to NY every year for a Mets game.
7. Cliff Lee is your 2012 NL Cy Young award winner. The obvious selection is Roy Halladay and the sexy pick is Cole Hamels in a contract year but Lee has to enter 2012 with a chip on his shoulder regarding how things fared for him in the playoffs (see: blown lead!). A few sharper games to start the season in 2011 and he would have been closer to the top then too! While you can’t put a ton of value to Spring Training stats, Lee’s 2011 Spring was just as rocky as his first two months of the regular season. If he can carry his 2012 spring into the regular season in the same fashion, he should remain at the top of the conversation.
8. Jim Thome will start more games than Laynce Nix. Neither will start very many games though as to my next point…
9. Ryan Howard will be back by May 7^th. His repaired Achilles was moving along swimmingly when the “setback” occurred. But the “setback” wasn’t an aggravation of the initial injury as some people seem to believe. The infection did not do any further damage to the ruptured tendon, but rather the incision just needed to be cleaned and re-heal. I see no reason to assume that Ryan won’t do the most he possibly can to get back on the field. May 7^th kicks off a string of 14 of 16 games at home which includes the Mets, Padres, and Astros; bottom of the league teams that Ryan Howard can ease himself into the lineup against, even if it’s just in pinch hitting duty for the first few days.
10. Jonathan Papelbon will be very good. Perfect season good? Not likely, but Papelbon should be able to make you forget about Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson. His interleague K/9 of 10+ and K/BB of 4.82 are better than his AL numbers and in recent years he’s shown improved control and strikeout ability. A move from the AL East to the NL East should be a walk in the park.
11. Cole Hamels signs a contract extension for 6 years, $130M by May 1^st.  Yesterday’s Matt Cain extension set the bar and while I think Cole Hamels is a better pitcher than Cain, I'm not sure he'll split hairs over a few pennies. 6-$127 for Cain, 6-$130 for Hamels seems more than fair.
12. The Phillies will have 7 All-Stars representing the team in Kansas City this year. Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Papelbon will all be there as will Pence, Victorino, and Rollins. Don’t worry, I still dislike Jimmy Rollins, but I have a feeling he’ll start the season on one of his hot streaks and milk it into a few All Star votes.
13. Not really going out on a limb here, but… someone retires at the end of the season. Candidates include Jim Thome, Placido Polanco, and Jose Contreras. I might even say that Contreras doesn’t even make it through the full season.
14. Freddy Galvis > Tyler Pastornicky. The Atlanta Braves will also feature an inexperienced, light hitting rookie in their middle infield to start the season. I think it’ll be the gap power and defense that will separate Galvis. Neither are superstars, but Galvis should fit his shoes a little better than the Braves SS. Also, Galvis > Eric Bruntlett, Tad Iguchi, Miguel Cairo, Wilson Valdez, Michael Martinez, Pete Orr, etc/all.
15. Chase Utley’s line at the end of the season: 16 HRs, 77 RBI, 68 Runs, .281 AVG.  Two thirds of a season of Utley will still be better than about two thirds of Majoe League 2^nd Basemen.