15 Bold (and Likely Inaccurate) Phillies Predictions for 2012

1. 94 Wins, 6^th straight NL East title… and it’ll be easier than you think.
2. Juan Pierre will steal 30 bases… and get caught stealing 25 other times. I’m fine with his slap hitting singles style of play, but for a guy who has had over 6300 PA in the leadoff position (85% of all his PAs), you’d think that his propensity for scoring runs would be a little higher. Only three times in his career has he scored more than 100 runs (the last being 2004), despite playing for a handful of playoff teams during that time.  He’s led the league in SBs three times, but led in CS seven including the past two season in the AL. Spring numbers, though limited, indicate that we can expect more of the same and Rollins moving down to 3^rd in the lineup suggests that we may see more than a few failed attempts in the first inning. You’ll see me complaining about Juan Pierre almost as often as I did about Wilson Valdez last year
3. No fans will run on the field at CBP this year! I think we’ve finally learned our lesson and with the exception of a possible rain delay, tarp slip-n-slide attempt (which face it, most of us would love to do!) fans will stay off the field for the entire season. Naturally, we will still be referenced as the gold standard when fans misbehave in a place like Milwaukee.
4. You will find yourself muttering the phrase “I miss Jamie Moyer” at some point in the 2012 season.  Whether it’s because the Rockies’ number 2 guy is lighting the world on fire with his 70-80mph stuff or if Vance Worley and Joe Blanton are just that disappointing, we’ll wish Jamie Moyer was wearing red pinstripes at some point this season.
5. Dom Brown will have twice the PAs in 2012 as he did in 2011. I just read David Murphy tweet that with Juan Pierre batting leadoff, the Phillies could potentially trot out 5 consecutive batters who fail to hit 10 HRs in a season (Ruiz, Galvis, Pitcher, Pierre, Polanco).  By June, power will be at a premium. One injury to anyone in the OF, and I think you have to call up Dom Brown for regular playing time if for no other reason than to add a little spark to what could potentially be a dull lineup.
6. Phillies Fans won’t travel to DC as well as expected. Gas is too expensive. Hell, I had trouble selling the 20 tickets I bought to friends despite usually taking a bus load of 30-40 to NY every year for a Mets game.
7. Cliff Lee is your 2012 NL Cy Young award winner. The obvious selection is Roy Halladay and the sexy pick is Cole Hamels in a contract year but Lee has to enter 2012 with a chip on his shoulder regarding how things fared for him in the playoffs (see: blown lead!). A few sharper games to start the season in 2011 and he would have been closer to the top then too! While you can’t put a ton of value to Spring Training stats, Lee’s 2011 Spring was just as rocky as his first two months of the regular season. If he can carry his 2012 spring into the regular season in the same fashion, he should remain at the top of the conversation.
8. Jim Thome will start more games than Laynce Nix. Neither will start very many games though as to my next point…
9. Ryan Howard will be back by May 7^th. His repaired Achilles was moving along swimmingly when the “setback” occurred. But the “setback” wasn’t an aggravation of the initial injury as some people seem to believe. The infection did not do any further damage to the ruptured tendon, but rather the incision just needed to be cleaned and re-heal. I see no reason to assume that Ryan won’t do the most he possibly can to get back on the field. May 7^th kicks off a string of 14 of 16 games at home which includes the Mets, Padres, and Astros; bottom of the league teams that Ryan Howard can ease himself into the lineup against, even if it’s just in pinch hitting duty for the first few days.
10. Jonathan Papelbon will be very good. Perfect season good? Not likely, but Papelbon should be able to make you forget about Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson. His interleague K/9 of 10+ and K/BB of 4.82 are better than his AL numbers and in recent years he’s shown improved control and strikeout ability. A move from the AL East to the NL East should be a walk in the park.
11. Cole Hamels signs a contract extension for 6 years, $130M by May 1^st.  Yesterday’s Matt Cain extension set the bar and while I think Cole Hamels is a better pitcher than Cain, I'm not sure he'll split hairs over a few pennies. 6-$127 for Cain, 6-$130 for Hamels seems more than fair.
12. The Phillies will have 7 All-Stars representing the team in Kansas City this year. Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Papelbon will all be there as will Pence, Victorino, and Rollins. Don’t worry, I still dislike Jimmy Rollins, but I have a feeling he’ll start the season on one of his hot streaks and milk it into a few All Star votes.
13. Not really going out on a limb here, but… someone retires at the end of the season. Candidates include Jim Thome, Placido Polanco, and Jose Contreras. I might even say that Contreras doesn’t even make it through the full season.
14. Freddy Galvis > Tyler Pastornicky. The Atlanta Braves will also feature an inexperienced, light hitting rookie in their middle infield to start the season. I think it’ll be the gap power and defense that will separate Galvis. Neither are superstars, but Galvis should fit his shoes a little better than the Braves SS. Also, Galvis > Eric Bruntlett, Tad Iguchi, Miguel Cairo, Wilson Valdez, Michael Martinez, Pete Orr, etc/all.
15. Chase Utley’s line at the end of the season: 16 HRs, 77 RBI, 68 Runs, .281 AVG.  Two thirds of a season of Utley will still be better than about two thirds of Majoe League 2^nd Basemen.   

Around The Diamond

I think I'm going to make it my summer's goal to 

track down this place where rubbing mud comes from!

• Dugout Phunnies Issue #4 is a mere one week away from release! Like most things that are awesome, I was in on the ground floor when it first came out. But if the first six pages, and all the comments on Twitter are to be believed, 2012 is the season that David Jablow and Jeff Goff blow up! So buy a copy and watch Doc wrestle space snakes!    

• David Murphy's expanded explanation on the Chase Utley saga is really the best read on the piece. Despite the outrage you may hear, there are a number of caveats to this situation. It's been beaten to death over the last 24 months so I won't go into depth, but Ruben Amaro and Chase Utley are tiptoeing a three way line between lying, withholding information, and outright denial.  Any way you shake it, it's disappointing to hear about this development so late in the Spring. I can't claim to know what Utley did the last few months to prepare for spring training and as a guy who's mildly athletic but has never suffered any significant injury, I can't say what the difference between weight room workouts, and live game drills. But I can't help but wonder if something couldn't have been done differently to come to this conclusion in February, rather than the last week of March. Interestingly enough, former major leaguer David Segui seems to have the perfect solution for Utley: HGH. I could probably buy into a scenario where HGH was allowed to extend the career of guys with chronic joint pains. Maybe some sort of MLB employed doctor that can prescribe the drug? Just a thought...

• Ryne Sandberg has put his Chicago area house up for sale proving that you can only be snubbed by a city (despite being one of its alltime greats) so many times! If I said it once, I said it 100 times, I think he's your next manager for the Phillies following a retirement for Charlie Manuel. Ivan DeJesus (the guy the Phillies traded away Sandberg for), on the other hand, is bouncing around the Cubs system. Sweet irony. 

• Ken Rosenthal released his yearly kiss of death today which ranks the Phillies as the 8th best team in baseball and the 3rd best in the NL, but still predicts they'll continue the streak as NL East champs. It's tough to argue with the strength of the AL, but ranking the Giants ahead of the Phillies is a travesty worthy of a letter to your congressman. Buster Posey, Carlos Beltran, and Pablo Sandoval: three guys that a stiff breeze away from their next trip to the DL. And a rotation that while good, is still a notch behind Philadelphia. Take to the streets people! I will not rest until Ken Rosenthal apologizes (mostly just for wearing those silly ties, not his predictions)!

• Consider me fully behind the move to put Cole Hamels in the #4 slot to start the season at home. The Phillies have had a quite a bit of success with splitting their lefties and righties, Vance Worley matches up favorably with James McDonald of Pittsburgh, and Cole can handle his own with either Carlos Zambrano or Mark Buehrle depending on how the Marlins line things up. And while I'm looking at it, isn't it a little strange that the Marlins are opening up with a single game against the Cardinals on Wednesday, then hit the road for a 3 game series against the Reds? Why just one game?  
  

The Prediction Post

So that we can all sit back and laugh about how ridiculously off-base I was when the season started, I've decided to put my wild predictions for the 2011 season in print. For argument's sake, I'm going to try to avoid some of the more obvious picks...

AL MVP - Mark Teixeira
I made the same prediction last year, though I didn't have a blog to share with the world. But the fact of the matter is that year after year he's an absolute monster in the 2nd half of the season and has been for years. I'm hedging my bets and saying that he manages a "decent" first few months and rolls on to the best season of his career. The popular pick this year in the AL is Adrian Gonzalez, but I think that shoulder injury is going to play a bigger role than a lot of other people think.

NL MVP - Carlos Gonzalez
All the talk this offseason has been about Troy Tulowitzki and while he had a tremendous final 6 weeks of the regular season, he wasn't even the best player on his own team. That title goes to Gonzalez. Cargo is the rare 30-30 potential guy with power to all fields who hits for average and plays Gold Glove caliber defense. He was arguably the best 5 tool player in the game right now and I think if he comes close to a repeat performance and his Rockies stay in the playoff hunt, he'll be looking at an MVP trophy come seasons end.

AL Cy Young - Jon Lester
There are a handful of guys who could win this award, but none of the others play for the Red Sox. The fact remains that voters love the W column and Lester is going to get a bunch of them playing behind the Boston offense. If he keeps his K's up in the 200s and can sneak his ERA into the low 3's, 21 wins should be well within his grasp.

NL Cy Young - Roy Halladay
This one is the easy pick after seeing his nearest competition go down in the spring in Adam Wainwright. But the fact of the matter is I've been calling Roy Halladay the best pitcher in baseball since like 2005. He's a horse and he almost always exceed expectations. I'd go as far as to suggest that his stat line even improves from last season.

AL Rookie of the Year - Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Ichiro-Light is how I would classify him. He has that same slap and run style of play that many Japanese ball players have and he rode it to a batting title last season. His nearest competition for the ROY might be Jeremy Hellickson and Kyle Drabek (Only two rookies in an AL starting rotation), but both of them will go through some growing pains. Nishioka has the benefit of having played high level professional ball for a few years and should burst right onto the scene.

NL Rookie of the Year - Brandon Belt
Admittedly, I don't know a ton about this guy. But he won the Giants starting first base job out of camp and he's a huge prospect for them. His nearest competition seems to be Freddie Freeman of ATL and Aroldis Chapman from the Reds. Chapman will be a setup man and I don't care how hard he throws, you can't give the award to a setup guy. Freeman seems to be of the same mold as Belt so I'm really just taking the Giants first baseman on a hunch.

AL Comeback Player - Manny Ramirez
The MLB Network 30 Clubs in 30 Days special with the Rays gave me a real good feeling about Manny. He seems to be rejuvenated and looking to prove himself the same way he had to when he went to LA. It's a shot in the dark, but I think he has one more year of 25 HRs and 95 RBI left in him.

NL Comeback Player - Jimmy Rollins
It's starting to seem doubtful that he starts the season as the Phillies leadoff hitter. While that might sound like a demotion to some people, his role in the #3 spot is going to be far more valuable. He won't go 30-30-30 again, but he'll push the BA numbers back a little closer to elite SS level. The fact that he's in a contract year should motivate him to lay off a few more 1st pitch breaking balls and hone his skills for one more contract at age 32.

AL Disappointment - Jose Bautista
The homeruns may not have been a total fluke, but pitchers will be wise to him this year. Every prediction I've seen still puts him in the 35-100-100 class and I don't think he's going to reach any of those milestones this year.

NL Disappointment - Prince Fielder
I've often seen him as an all or nothing kind of guy, even though he hasn't really played that way. Well this year I think he will. You just can't carry a frame like a beach-ball and be a good first baseman for very long. Look for a Mo Vaughn-esque decline any day now.

Hitters to watch:
Gordon Beckham - huge bounce back from sophomore slump.
Shin-Soo Choo - My love affair with him is well documented. 20-20-.290 AVG is a lock.
Jay Bruce - Finally becoming the player he was supposed to be.
Billy Butler - This is the year the power finally matches the plate discipline.
Jed Lowrie - Marco Scutaro is one stubbed toe away from being a utility infielder again.

Pitchers to watch:
Erik Bedard - don't call it a comeback!
Brandon Beachy - has the 2nd highest ceiling of the Braves starting 5.
Brian Matusz - a year older and a much better lineup behind him.
Gio Gonzalez - said to have the best stuff in the A's rotation
Daniel Hudson - His stretch run in 2010 was no fluke

AL East:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. NY Yankees
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Tampa Bay Rays

AL West:
1. Texas Rangers
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Los Angeles Angels
4. Seattle Mariners

AL Central:
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians

NL East:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Florida Marlins
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets

NL West:
1. Colorodo Rockies
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. San Diego Padres
5. Arizona Diamondbacks

NL Central:
1. St Louis Cardinals
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Houston Astros
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Chicago Cubs

Wild Card Round:
Red Sox over Twins
Yankees over Rangers
Phillies over Cardinals
Braves over Rockies

Championship Series:
Red Sox over Yankees in7
Phillies over Braves in 5

World Series:
Red Sox over Phillies in 6