15 Bold (and Likely Inaccurate) Phillies Predictions for 2012

1. 94 Wins, 6^th straight NL East title… and it’ll be easier than you think.
2. Juan Pierre will steal 30 bases… and get caught stealing 25 other times. I’m fine with his slap hitting singles style of play, but for a guy who has had over 6300 PA in the leadoff position (85% of all his PAs), you’d think that his propensity for scoring runs would be a little higher. Only three times in his career has he scored more than 100 runs (the last being 2004), despite playing for a handful of playoff teams during that time.  He’s led the league in SBs three times, but led in CS seven including the past two season in the AL. Spring numbers, though limited, indicate that we can expect more of the same and Rollins moving down to 3^rd in the lineup suggests that we may see more than a few failed attempts in the first inning. You’ll see me complaining about Juan Pierre almost as often as I did about Wilson Valdez last year
3. No fans will run on the field at CBP this year! I think we’ve finally learned our lesson and with the exception of a possible rain delay, tarp slip-n-slide attempt (which face it, most of us would love to do!) fans will stay off the field for the entire season. Naturally, we will still be referenced as the gold standard when fans misbehave in a place like Milwaukee.
4. You will find yourself muttering the phrase “I miss Jamie Moyer” at some point in the 2012 season.  Whether it’s because the Rockies’ number 2 guy is lighting the world on fire with his 70-80mph stuff or if Vance Worley and Joe Blanton are just that disappointing, we’ll wish Jamie Moyer was wearing red pinstripes at some point this season.
5. Dom Brown will have twice the PAs in 2012 as he did in 2011. I just read David Murphy tweet that with Juan Pierre batting leadoff, the Phillies could potentially trot out 5 consecutive batters who fail to hit 10 HRs in a season (Ruiz, Galvis, Pitcher, Pierre, Polanco).  By June, power will be at a premium. One injury to anyone in the OF, and I think you have to call up Dom Brown for regular playing time if for no other reason than to add a little spark to what could potentially be a dull lineup.
6. Phillies Fans won’t travel to DC as well as expected. Gas is too expensive. Hell, I had trouble selling the 20 tickets I bought to friends despite usually taking a bus load of 30-40 to NY every year for a Mets game.
7. Cliff Lee is your 2012 NL Cy Young award winner. The obvious selection is Roy Halladay and the sexy pick is Cole Hamels in a contract year but Lee has to enter 2012 with a chip on his shoulder regarding how things fared for him in the playoffs (see: blown lead!). A few sharper games to start the season in 2011 and he would have been closer to the top then too! While you can’t put a ton of value to Spring Training stats, Lee’s 2011 Spring was just as rocky as his first two months of the regular season. If he can carry his 2012 spring into the regular season in the same fashion, he should remain at the top of the conversation.
8. Jim Thome will start more games than Laynce Nix. Neither will start very many games though as to my next point…
9. Ryan Howard will be back by May 7^th. His repaired Achilles was moving along swimmingly when the “setback” occurred. But the “setback” wasn’t an aggravation of the initial injury as some people seem to believe. The infection did not do any further damage to the ruptured tendon, but rather the incision just needed to be cleaned and re-heal. I see no reason to assume that Ryan won’t do the most he possibly can to get back on the field. May 7^th kicks off a string of 14 of 16 games at home which includes the Mets, Padres, and Astros; bottom of the league teams that Ryan Howard can ease himself into the lineup against, even if it’s just in pinch hitting duty for the first few days.
10. Jonathan Papelbon will be very good. Perfect season good? Not likely, but Papelbon should be able to make you forget about Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson. His interleague K/9 of 10+ and K/BB of 4.82 are better than his AL numbers and in recent years he’s shown improved control and strikeout ability. A move from the AL East to the NL East should be a walk in the park.
11. Cole Hamels signs a contract extension for 6 years, $130M by May 1^st.  Yesterday’s Matt Cain extension set the bar and while I think Cole Hamels is a better pitcher than Cain, I'm not sure he'll split hairs over a few pennies. 6-$127 for Cain, 6-$130 for Hamels seems more than fair.
12. The Phillies will have 7 All-Stars representing the team in Kansas City this year. Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Papelbon will all be there as will Pence, Victorino, and Rollins. Don’t worry, I still dislike Jimmy Rollins, but I have a feeling he’ll start the season on one of his hot streaks and milk it into a few All Star votes.
13. Not really going out on a limb here, but… someone retires at the end of the season. Candidates include Jim Thome, Placido Polanco, and Jose Contreras. I might even say that Contreras doesn’t even make it through the full season.
14. Freddy Galvis > Tyler Pastornicky. The Atlanta Braves will also feature an inexperienced, light hitting rookie in their middle infield to start the season. I think it’ll be the gap power and defense that will separate Galvis. Neither are superstars, but Galvis should fit his shoes a little better than the Braves SS. Also, Galvis > Eric Bruntlett, Tad Iguchi, Miguel Cairo, Wilson Valdez, Michael Martinez, Pete Orr, etc/all.
15. Chase Utley’s line at the end of the season: 16 HRs, 77 RBI, 68 Runs, .281 AVG.  Two thirds of a season of Utley will still be better than about two thirds of Majoe League 2^nd Basemen.