Saying Goodbye to the Double Play Machine That Was Wilson Valdez

Finally, some news worth commenting on! In their biggest splash of the off-season, the Phillies have traded away Wilson Valdez. Now, I think my disdain for the human oil spill that is "Exxon" Valdez has been pretty apparent. Why do I dislike him so?

Double Plays.

Here's a look at Wilson Valdez' numbers from the past two seasons with the Phillies:
2010 - 20 GIDP - 363 PA (5.5% of all plate appearances ended in 2 outs.)
2011 - 13 GIDP - 300 PA (4.3%)

During those two years, Baseball's top GIDP victims were Billy Butler (32 in 2010) and Albert Pujols (29 in 2011). Had Wilson Valdez reached the same plateau of PAs in each season, in 2010 he would have set a new Major League Baseball record for GIDPs in a season with 37.35. We're talking about a sport that's been around for 140+ years and Wilson Valdez would have been the all time season leader in grounding into DPs had he been an every day player! In 2011, had he reached Pujols' PA numbers he would have been a close second in all of baseball with 28.21. Unfortunately, Valdez can't support his GIDP numbers with the same OPS numbers that Pujols puts up!

But plate appearances are probably a bad statistic to use, so let's consider "opportunities" instead:
2010 - 20 GIDP - 83 Opportunities (24.1%)
2011 - 13 GIDP - 79 Opportunities (16.5%)
The league average is 11%

The man with the most double plays in any one single season is Jim Rice. In fact, he's 1st, 2nd, and tied for 8th on the single season list! But even he peaked at 20% in his worst year and ended at 15% for his career. He's also a Hall of Famer. The biggest active double play machine is Ivan Rodriguez (a future Hall of Famer for sure) with 337 GIDPs in his career, but even he only causes two outs at a rate of 15.6% of his opportunities. Wilson Valdez is at 18.3% for his career!

In 2011 for the Phillies, only Placido Polanco GIDP more than Valdez (15 to 13) and that was in nearly twice as many plate appearances with a bad back AND a sports hernia! In 2010, no one else on the team was even close.

And while Wilson Valdez does have have more career victories than the lefty reliever, Jeremy Horst, that the Phillies got in return (oddly enough his W was against Cincinnati who must have been afraid to face him again next season), raise your beers with me this weekend as we toast the departure of Wilson Valdez and save ourselves a handful of two out ground balls for 2012!

Separated at Birth?

My guess is that Grover Underwood would probably ground into fewer double plays.

The Greatest Game Ever Played.

No, I'm not talking about golf. And I'm not naive enough to say that last night's 19 inning Phillies game was actually the greatest game ever played. But the sport of baseball in general is. Nothing is as unpredictable as this game. 2,430 of them are played each year and the game has been around since 1846, and yet at any given point in time there's a distinct chance you'll see something you've never seen before. There is no clock, there is no sudden death, and there is no tie. And that's what makes the game so special. So when the Phillies take the field at 7:05 on a Wednesday night and I'm hoping that I can get home and get my first decent night's sleep in over a week, I have no idea what kind of a treat I'm in for.

• Second longest (continuous) game in Phillies history timewise (6 hrs, 11 min). Four minutes shy of the record! 45,706 people started out there, but I'd estimate about 1/3 of them were gone by the 10th, and another 1/3 left on the Bruce HR. All in, if I had to guess, I'd say less than 10,000 were there to see Ibanez drive the ball to center and Jimmy trot home. If you know someone who claims to have been there, chances are they're lying (except me, you know me!)

• A bad day from Roy Halladay beats a good day from just about anyone else. The Reds were a singles machine for much of the first 7 innings which ran up Roy's pitch count and did some damage to his WHIP, but not a single ball was hit all that hard. A handful of well placed slap hits through gaps led to 3 runs, which was only the 3rd time all year that Roy had let up more than two.

• In 2010, that Jay Bruce HR is the straw that breaks the camel's back. In 2008, the Ryan Howard return shot is a foregone conclusion. It's nice to see shades of 2008 again...

• The stolen bases are a bit concerning. Three guys stole 2nd off Chooch last night and none of the plays were really all that close. 

• 9 1/3 IP, 5Ks, 1 Hit. That's the combined stat line of Kyle Kendrick, JC Romero, David Herndon, Danys Baez, and Wilson Valdez. The crowd groaned as each of them ran in from the bullpen, but collectively they got the job done. 

• Defense saved this game. Jimmy Rollins, whose defense has been questioned on more than one occasion this season, makes no fewer than 3 plays from short that completely save the game. Ryan Howard stretches and scoops everything that comes near him at first base. David Herndon makes a play in the 11th with the bases loaded that goes down in the scorecard as (1-3), but is far from routine and he's the only guy on the field with a shot at getting the out. 

• As the innings wear on, you go through a roller coaster of emotions. 1-3: Well, the offense is hitting tonight, that's certainly better than the last time we saw Travis Wood! 4-9: Man, Roy is really getting dinked and dunked here. There's a good chance this one get's away from us! 10: That HR is the game... no wait! 11-13: Come on! It's been almost an hour since the last time either team got a hit! 14-17: This could be something special. 18-19: This IS something special. Confidence --> Pessimism --> Annoyance --> Optimism -->Pride --> Feeling like you witnessed history.

• The Upper Deck was completely cleared by the 15th. The Rooftop wasn't far behind. Doc's Patients came down from their perch and parked right near us. Another two or three innings and I could have seen them closing Ashburn Alley and the outfield all-together just to get the place clean for the 1PM start today!

• Baez was told he was done after 3 innings, at which point he said "No." Usually that trick only works for Roy Halladays, but Charlie was out of other options. At that point, Valdez would have likely came in the game anyway as they were completely out of other options. The fact that Baez went the longest outing of his career, and threw 73 pitches earns him a complete reprieve from any negative comments until at least the All-Star Break. 

• Valdez throws 10 pitches, 5 for strikes. Romero throws 16, 4 for strikes. I would suspect that JC Romero is dangerously close to being cut... if he wasn't a lefty.

• Around the 11th inning, it became pretty clear that a position player was likely to pitch. Chances are Charlie had already sent today's starter, Cliff Lee, home for the night and with Oswalt coming off a recent injury, Hamels being a creature of routine, and Worley already complaining about tiredness, there were no other options. When Baez goes 5, it's only delaying the inevitable. My first thought is that Valdez is the likely candidate. He has a cannon for an arm at 2nd and there is literally no one else on the team who has pitched. I later heard on Twitter that Valdez had thrown a few years back in a Dominican League game and that Ross Gload had tossed one in 2008, but with a torn hip muscle he wasn't an option.

• Chooch moving to third was the surprise of the night, though. I thought I remembered hearing that he was a 2nd baseman in some past/minor league life, but BaseballReference only shows 1B and OF as positions he's played. Moving him to 3rd and putting Polanco at 2nd was a shocker for me. Watching him motor down the third base line after a foul ball was baseball at it's finest.

• I can't help but think that the Reds had another pitcher available. I haven't heard any word on it, but they only tossed 7 guys and they used 21 players total. Assuming 4 starters weren't available, was Carlos Fisher really the last guy they had left in the pen? When he stepped to the plate in the top of the 19th I was shocked that they were going to march him back out there for a 6th inning.  He was visibly done.

• Before stepping foot on the mound, Valdez is already having a career night. 3 for 6 with a double, and two amazing take out slides at second base. I give the guy crap all the time for his propensity to ground into a double play, but he's otherwise fundamentally sound. I could see him coaching somewhere when his career wraps up. 

• But then the guy threw 90MPH. 90! Tim Wakefield keeps finding work and I'm not sure he's ever sniffed 90! Valdez even shook off signs from catcher Dane Sardhina! According to his post game interview, he mixed a high 80s fastball with a low 80s sinker. He got the reigning NL MVP to fly out, he pegged Scott Rolen to much delight, and he got Jay Bruce (who was 3-7 with 3 RBI at that point) to pop up. Unbelievable and worthy of this T-shirt (coincidentally, it was available WELL before last night's game.)

• According to ESPN, Wilson Valdez is the first person to start a game in the field and earn the win as a pitcher since Babe Ruth. Yes, Wilson Valdez will forever find himself as part of a trivia question that includes BABE RUTH. 

It might be premature to say that last night's game will be the one to define the season, but my knee jerk reaction is to say it already has.

For even more tidbits of information and statistical oddities, check Jason Stark's column over at ESPN.com

I don't get it... Again

Seems like only yesterday I was scratching my head wondering why the Phillies picked up Luis Castillo in the first place... now I'm wondering why they dropped him.

First, I don't understand the sudden love affair people have with Wilson Valdez. He started 88 games for the Phillies last season and performed admirably as a defensive replacement for Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Placido Polanco. But that's where his usefulness ends. He's a 32 year old AAAA player who held his own on defense, but grounded into 20 double plays into in 333 ABs. How bad is that? Once every 16 at bats he was responsible for 2 outs. Take into account the 86 times he was lucky enough to get a hit, and once every 12 at bats where he recorded an out, he actually created two outs! And how bad is that? Pablo Sandoval led the league with 26 GIDPs, but in 563 ABs. Once every 21 ABs for those without a calculator. Give Valdez that many ABs and he grounds into 34 double plays. THIRTY FOUR! That would be #3 on the All Time Single season list... (not that he'll ever get 500+ ABs) What I'm trying to say is he's not a good every day player. The value of having a Wilson Valdez on your team is in being able to use him a couple times a week at 2nd, 3rd and Short. He has the defensive range and can spell someone for a day. But he offers nothing else.

And why not Luis Castillo? Aside from no-showing his 1st day, he did nothing wrong. He was 0 for his first 8, but then started to string together hits. His fielding was never tested, and he was 1 for 1 on steal attempts. He's 34 (only two years older than the golden boy above), and has shown the ability to hit for average AND swipe a few bags. It seems to me as though the Phillies completely wasted his time this spring. To bring the guy in on a minor league contract that was only guaranteed if he made the roster, and then cut him loose for seemingly no reason is a slap in the face. It's almost as if Ruben Amaro, in his ultimate smugness, snagged him off the waiver wire just so no one else could have him for a few weeks. The only other reasonable explanation is that Ruben knows something we don't (trade? Utley is feeling much better?)

As for the other dishrags that will be spending time plugging the hole as 2nd Base, Pete Orr and Michael Martinez aren't exactly names that make one do a double take. Martinez is a Rule 5 guy that the Phillies swiped from the Nationals in the draft. He's hit for decent average in the minors the past few years but done little otherwise. To keep him, naturally, he has to stay on the 25 Man Roster. So either they see something I don't or he has pictures of Charlie Manuel in a compromising position. Pete Orr is a 2B/OF type much in the same mold. I could throw a rock from my front porch and hit two guys in the neighborhood with the same skills as Pete Orr. But both of these guys are now going to make the squad over Delwyn Young and Josh Barfield; two of the hottest hitters of the spring and both young guys with substantial major league playing time. Again, a head scratcher...

It doesn't get much better with pitching... Michael Stutes has been amazing this pre-season, and both Mike Zagurski and Scott Mathieson were impressive early. The three of them will be sent down in favor of Danys Baez, David Herndon, and Antonio Bastardo. Baez is about as useful as a paperweight, Herndon is a mop up guy, and Bastardo make me yawn and say "meh." Guys like those three fall out of trees in the majors anymore. But Stutes, Zagurski, and Mathieson are young fireballers who have each had something to overcome and worked their tails off for spots. Who has more fire that can help propel the Phillies to another World Series? Danys Baez and his career $40M worth of stolen paychecks, or Scott Mathieson and his two Tommy John surgeries and desperate attempt to sniff big league glory?

I'm not as down on the squad as this post seems, but I sure would like to be a fly on the wall when these decisions are made. Still looking at 97 wins and a division title.

Still In Denial...

I'm a big Chase Utley fan. The dude plays with a grit that we haven't seen since the Lenny Dykstra days. He sounds calm and cool every time he opens his mouth, he and his wife do a ton of volunteer work in the area, and he's not a half bad baseball player. So naturally I cringe every time I hear news of the knee injury that is keeping him off the playing field this spring.

In the past few years, some would say that Chase has been injury prone. That's not really the case, though. To me, injury prone is a player that has nagging injuries throughout his career. All of Chase's injuries are independent of one another. The hip injury at the end of 2008 still produced 33 HRs and his offseason surgery had him ready to go at the beginning of the following season. The thumb injury in 2010 was a fluke result of an errant slide into 2nd base. But this knee is a whole new animal.

I don't claim to be any sort of medical professional, but if there's anyone who has an idea what Chase is going through it's Brandon Inge. Apparently he's been talking to Utley in recent days, describing the patellar tendinitis procedure he went through about two years earlier. Inge played through the injury for a year, then had surgery in the offseason. According to his own words, he hasn't felt like himself until reporting to spring training a few weeks ago.

As disturbing as that news is, I may the only person left in the Delaware Valley who sees a glimmer of hope. When completely healthy, Chase is one of the top 2-3 2nd basemen in baseball. At times he can even be the best 2nd baseman of all time. His defense? One of the tops in the game according to fan graphs. His offense? Off the charts for a 2nd basemen as his closest similar player seems to be Jeff Kent (arguably the best offensive 2nd baseman ever). On a bum knee in 2009, Brandon Inge managed to play 161 games, hit 27 HR, and 84 RBI. His batting average was low, but Inge has never really been one for putting up a solid BA. Utley, on the other hand is.

My point? I probably have my blinders on, but I still have confidence that despite every report and the panic that is sweeping around the Philadelphia area and every fantasy baseball league in existence, Chase will be playing baseball for most of 2011. Even at 75% health this season, Chase Utley is more valuable than 90% of 2nd basemen ever to put on a Phillies uniform. As I understand it, there is no easy remedy for patellar tendinitis. Your options seem to be rest and surgery. Neither guarantee success. Knowing how Chase typically keeps himself in shape and generally takes care of his body, I think Spring Training is more of a formality for him than anything else. He's still taking daily batting practice and by all accounts hitting the ball as well as could be expected. Taking a few more active reps in the field this spring would be beneficial, but not entirely necessary. So with 22 days left in spring training, there is still more than enough time to let things sort themselves out. If Wilson Valdez suits up and takes the field on Opening Day, the world will not stop. He's proven to be a very solid defender, and seems to be improving with the bat. However, with that hard working, gritty style of play, I'm still holding out hope that Chase takes the Brandon Inge route and plays the season out.

MLBTradeRumors points out the potential plan B's and none of them are all that intriguing anyway. Naturally, Ruben Amaro has come out and stated that his concern is Chase's well being not only this year, but in years to come. Afterall, they have 3 more years and $45M+ wrapped up in him. As James from PhuturePhillies.com pointed out on Twitter this evening, all the statistics in the world seem to suggest 33 year old 2nd basemen with serious knee injuries, don't quite put up the same numbers we're used to seeing. I tend to hold out hope that Chase still has a lot left in the tank... but like I said, I'm probably just still in denial.