- It's still daylight (and about 95 degrees) in El Paso, TX.
- Cliff Lee is really good at baseball.
- Dom Brown hit a baseball really hard.
- The Phillies have fifty wins (still think I'm crazy for predicting 97?)
- Ryan Madson is not, in fact, dead.
June 28, 2011
You Get Nothing! You Lose!
Sorry, Red Sox...
June 23, 2011
A Crazy Solution for the Phillies SS of the Future?
It's common knowledge that Jimmy Rollins' contract is up at the end of this year and the Phillies will be in the market for a shortstop for the first time since George W Bush's first term in office. It's also common knowledge that Rollins is a guy who loves attention and loves the star treatment. The Phillies wrapped up the prime years of Jimmy's career with a rather team friendly deal back in 2006 that averaged around $9M per over 5 years. While Jimmy isn't really performing up to the same levels that he did during the first year or two of that deal, both offensively and defensively, he's certainly going to be looking for a raise going into free agency with a deal that gives him 4 or 5 more years at over $10M each. It's a steep price to pay for a guy whose career is in decline, but without much in the farm system and not much else available in the free agent market, the Phillies have backed themselves into a bit of a corner here. Or have they...
1,200 miles to the south, but within the same division lies a shortstop that has shown as much potential as Jimmy Rollins ever did in his prime. He's a career .300+ hitter who is a has been a shoe in for 20/20/80/100 throughout his career. His name is Hanley Ramirez.
Wait, are you serious? Well, yes... sort of. Hear me out on this one.
Hanley Ramirez has burnt a lot of bridges in Florida with his lackadaisical style of play and his generally poor/disrespectful attitude towards the game of baseball. He's been benched for not running out ground balls, he's been fined for showing up late to games, and he's been chastised by his teammates for giving up on balls defensively. There's a solid case to be made that Ramirez's days in a Marlins uniform may be numbered. First of all, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria has never paid a player as much as the $15M that Hanley is due next season. That kind of salary in the Marlins current financial structure would equal something like 40% of their entire payroll for 2012. With a solid crop of other young talent that includes surprise power hitter Gabby Sanchez, fan favorite Logan Morrison, and the pitching duo of Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson, ownership is going to need to save a few dollars in the future. Secondly, Hanley's poor performance essentially forced his manager Edwin Rodriguez into stepping down from the job. Interim coach Jack McKeon is well known to be a guy who simply doesn't put up with the kind of antics Hanley displays. Now, we don't know if McKeon has any intention to be the manager beyond this season, but if he does, you can rest assured that Hanley's attitude would be a major riff in the clubhouse. I'd imagine if you were to ask Marlins fans whose side they're on, the guy who won them a World Series in 2003 or the guy who jogs to first base, they'd choose the former.
So if the dude's got so many issues, what do the Phillies want with him? Well if anyone is used to a shortstop who doesn't hustle, it's Charlie Manuel and the Phillies. To a much lesser extent than Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins has had his share of lazy moments in the game and he's been benched almost as frequently. Still, though, Charlie's reputation as a player's coach has mended any hard feelings he's garnered with his shortstop. Hanley has never experienced being on a team with veteran leadership around him. When Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs are the two guys giving you a hard time, it's pretty easy to tell them where to stick it. When it's Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard... you might just listen.
As for the contract situation, Hanley Ramirez is signed through 2014 with a deal that averages $15.5M/year over the next three. But that would be his 28-30 year old seasons, or what you might consider a player's prime. $15M for a guy who plays SS and puts up the kind of numbers you expect from a top tier outfielder is chump change. Especially once you factor in the likely raise Jimmy Rollins will command. If Jimmy can be had for 3 years @ $12M and a trade for Hanley Ramirez only costs you another $3M a year plus a few prospects, my question is where do I sign.
But I'd be neglectful if I didn't address some of the downfalls to this plan. The first thing baseball folks bring up talking about Hanley Ramirez is his declining defensive skills. It's true, he is just too big of a guy to be playing shortstop. His metrics rank him as about the 4th worst defensive shortstop in baseball over the last 5 seasons (oddly enough, golden boy Derek Jeter is the worst). But, a deal that sends him to the Phillies might only require him to play SS for one more year. Placido Polanco is signed through the 2012 season with a mutual option in 2013. He would be 37 in that year so the $1M buyout is a pretty likely option. The Phillies could let Polanco walk/retire, shift Hanley over to 3rd base after 2012, and either plug the SS hole with a placeholder like Wilson Valdez or hope to fast track any one of the handful of middle infield prospects they drafted this season and have laying around the low minors. Probable, maybe not. But it's certainly possible.
And perhaps the biggest hurdle to the little dream scenario I've painted is the prospect price tag involved. Make no mistake about it, the Marlins would be looking for a pretty epic haul if they were to trade away the cornerstone of their franchise. Up the price even further considering the Marlins probably wouldn't want to trade within their own division. Fortunately, the Phillies have a pretty stout farm system, especially at the lower levels. My best guess is that a deal would require 2 top prospects who are nearly major league ready, 2 that are highly touted low level guys, and a 5th guy as a throw in. Another 5 for 1 style deal. I don't know the Phillies farm system as well as I probably should, but if I were to venture a guess, Brody Colvin (projects as a #2-3 starter), Jonathan Singleton (1B/OF), Justin DeFratus (mid 90s bullpen arm), Vance Worley (#3-4 starter), and Freddy Galvis (MI) might be in the neighborhood of what it takes to get the job done. A steep haul, but also a series of guys who we can afford to lose if it means having a slugger like Hanley in the lineup for the next 3 years.
Okay, so it's not likely. But neither was trading for Roy Halladay last season or signing Cliff Lee this offseason. He bats right (which we need), he hits for average (which we need), he plays shortstop (which we will need in about 150 days). I'm not completely out of my mind, am I?
1,200 miles to the south, but within the same division lies a shortstop that has shown as much potential as Jimmy Rollins ever did in his prime. He's a career .300+ hitter who is a has been a shoe in for 20/20/80/100 throughout his career. His name is Hanley Ramirez.
Wait, are you serious? Well, yes... sort of. Hear me out on this one.
Hanley Ramirez has burnt a lot of bridges in Florida with his lackadaisical style of play and his generally poor/disrespectful attitude towards the game of baseball. He's been benched for not running out ground balls, he's been fined for showing up late to games, and he's been chastised by his teammates for giving up on balls defensively. There's a solid case to be made that Ramirez's days in a Marlins uniform may be numbered. First of all, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria has never paid a player as much as the $15M that Hanley is due next season. That kind of salary in the Marlins current financial structure would equal something like 40% of their entire payroll for 2012. With a solid crop of other young talent that includes surprise power hitter Gabby Sanchez, fan favorite Logan Morrison, and the pitching duo of Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson, ownership is going to need to save a few dollars in the future. Secondly, Hanley's poor performance essentially forced his manager Edwin Rodriguez into stepping down from the job. Interim coach Jack McKeon is well known to be a guy who simply doesn't put up with the kind of antics Hanley displays. Now, we don't know if McKeon has any intention to be the manager beyond this season, but if he does, you can rest assured that Hanley's attitude would be a major riff in the clubhouse. I'd imagine if you were to ask Marlins fans whose side they're on, the guy who won them a World Series in 2003 or the guy who jogs to first base, they'd choose the former.
So if the dude's got so many issues, what do the Phillies want with him? Well if anyone is used to a shortstop who doesn't hustle, it's Charlie Manuel and the Phillies. To a much lesser extent than Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins has had his share of lazy moments in the game and he's been benched almost as frequently. Still, though, Charlie's reputation as a player's coach has mended any hard feelings he's garnered with his shortstop. Hanley has never experienced being on a team with veteran leadership around him. When Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs are the two guys giving you a hard time, it's pretty easy to tell them where to stick it. When it's Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard... you might just listen.
As for the contract situation, Hanley Ramirez is signed through 2014 with a deal that averages $15.5M/year over the next three. But that would be his 28-30 year old seasons, or what you might consider a player's prime. $15M for a guy who plays SS and puts up the kind of numbers you expect from a top tier outfielder is chump change. Especially once you factor in the likely raise Jimmy Rollins will command. If Jimmy can be had for 3 years @ $12M and a trade for Hanley Ramirez only costs you another $3M a year plus a few prospects, my question is where do I sign.
But I'd be neglectful if I didn't address some of the downfalls to this plan. The first thing baseball folks bring up talking about Hanley Ramirez is his declining defensive skills. It's true, he is just too big of a guy to be playing shortstop. His metrics rank him as about the 4th worst defensive shortstop in baseball over the last 5 seasons (oddly enough, golden boy Derek Jeter is the worst). But, a deal that sends him to the Phillies might only require him to play SS for one more year. Placido Polanco is signed through the 2012 season with a mutual option in 2013. He would be 37 in that year so the $1M buyout is a pretty likely option. The Phillies could let Polanco walk/retire, shift Hanley over to 3rd base after 2012, and either plug the SS hole with a placeholder like Wilson Valdez or hope to fast track any one of the handful of middle infield prospects they drafted this season and have laying around the low minors. Probable, maybe not. But it's certainly possible.
And perhaps the biggest hurdle to the little dream scenario I've painted is the prospect price tag involved. Make no mistake about it, the Marlins would be looking for a pretty epic haul if they were to trade away the cornerstone of their franchise. Up the price even further considering the Marlins probably wouldn't want to trade within their own division. Fortunately, the Phillies have a pretty stout farm system, especially at the lower levels. My best guess is that a deal would require 2 top prospects who are nearly major league ready, 2 that are highly touted low level guys, and a 5th guy as a throw in. Another 5 for 1 style deal. I don't know the Phillies farm system as well as I probably should, but if I were to venture a guess, Brody Colvin (projects as a #2-3 starter), Jonathan Singleton (1B/OF), Justin DeFratus (mid 90s bullpen arm), Vance Worley (#3-4 starter), and Freddy Galvis (MI) might be in the neighborhood of what it takes to get the job done. A steep haul, but also a series of guys who we can afford to lose if it means having a slugger like Hanley in the lineup for the next 3 years.
Okay, so it's not likely. But neither was trading for Roy Halladay last season or signing Cliff Lee this offseason. He bats right (which we need), he hits for average (which we need), he plays shortstop (which we will need in about 150 days). I'm not completely out of my mind, am I?
June 22, 2011
Lunch Time Link Dump
- I'm pretty sure I've addressed this before, but Mandy Housenick from The Morning Call is probably the laziest, and most unfounded Phillies beat reporter out there. She frequently criticizes star players as a way of stirring the pot and almost always has no facts (or occasionally fabricated ones) to back her opinions. Earlier this week was nothing different when Housenick and Marcus Hayes were on Daily News Live and had the gall to come out and say that "you're not losing anything by playing Wilson Valdez at second base over Chase Utley." Crashburn Alley does a great job at breaking it down with a nice video mashup, but I don't think I need to bring up statistics like WAR or UZR to show you how asinine that statement is. How do people like them get paid to cover baseball while I sit here and blog about it for free?
- Ever want to stick your hand inside Chase Utley? Sicko. Well, now you can, thanks to these completely ambiguous and maybe even slightly racist puppets and stuffed creatures. Seriously, cover the names for a second and tell me that the Ryan Howard plush doll doesn't look more like Ben Francisco and the Chase Utley 7" plush doesn't look more like Brett Myers than anyone capable of playing 2nd Base. Still though, these dolls are officially licensed and they're cheaper than the stuffed goods you can get on the 2nd floor of the Majestic Clubhouse Store so if you don't mind your kids thinking all white people look the same, go for it!
- I found a neat little daily fantasy game on FanGraphs while reading through some twitter posts this morning. Just grab six players for the day under a salary cap and see how well you score. It's free to play, so if anyone wants in, I'll gladly set up a little daily group.
- Did you know that the Marlins new manager is old? It's true, 80 full years to be exact. What would possess a guy like that to come out of retirement is beyond me unless he has some sense of debt owed to help the Marlins out for the rest of the season. With a team full of guys that could easily be his great grandchildren, you can expect a lot of age gap jokes like the one Logan Morrison tweeted last night:
- With Interleague play in full swing, the yearly argument erupts once again: DH or no DH? It's a subject that splits baseball fans pretty much right down the middle depending on whether or not their team plays in the AL or the NL. Personally, I like the idea of having a pitcher pitch because it adds an extra challenge to the game that NL managers have to work around. That little caveat leads to some of baseball's greatest nuances; the sac bunt, the double switch, the pitcher actually getting a hit, etc. But then again, I'd probably pissed if my team strolled into an NL park and my best hitter was riding the pine because he's completely useless with a glove on his hand and my pitcher hasn't swung a bat since little league. Fans of the AL love the added offense and the lack of an "automatic out" at the bottom of the lineup. Fans of the NL love the purity of having every player on the field play two way ball.
- Lastly, this is too weird not to share...
June 21, 2011
Dropped Strike Three's AL All-Star Picks!
With the All-Star Game just a few short weeks away and voting wrapping up in about 10 days, let the roster controversy begin! While I don't think either manager in this year's event is going to go the Omar Infante route, there are bound to be a few screw ups. With injuries aplenty among superstars, and a number of early stat leaders not even listed on the ballot, expect to see a few eyebrow raisers. That said, I've dedicated yesterday and today to my NL & AL All Star picks (respectively) and we'll revisit things in a few weeks to see how I made out...
Catcher - Alex Avila (DET), Russell Martin (NYY)
One position into the selection and I'm already annoyed by how the voters are voting. Martin lit the world on fire in April, but is a replacement level player since then. Avila is more than a half a million votes behind, but he's the best catcher in the AL right now not named V-Mart.
First Base - Adrian Gonzalez (BOS), Miguel Cabrera (DET), Paul Konerko (CHI)
Always a tough decision, but AGon is the best at the position right now and both Konerko and Cabrera get the edge over Mark Teixeira right now, though he's next in line should just about any offensive player fall.
Second Base - Robinson Cano (NYY), Howie Kendrick (LAA)
Cano is the best of the bunch, but I think Kendrick will get a spot in the mix because of his hot start and solid OBP. Dustin Pedroia has made a case for himself lately, but with Michael Young being a deserving All-Star and having some skills at 2B, I think he steals the show from either Pedroia or Ian Kinsler.
Shortstop - Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE), Jhonny Peralta (DET), Derek Jeter (NYY)
It's an absolute travesty that Jeter will make this team seeing how he's about the 10th best shortstop in his own league right now, but he's the leading vote getter. JJ Hardy deserves consideration though injuries have held him back a bit. Elvis Andrus is also an option for his speed and run scoring abilities.
Third Base - Adrian Beltre (TEX), Alex Rodriguez (NYY), Kevin Youkilis (BOS)
The three best will make the show here, though the order is a toss up. Voting will probably remain close until the last week. Evan Longoria has played himself out of contention for this year.
Utility/DH - Michael Young (TEX), David Ortiz (BOS), Victor Martinez (DET)
Young does it all (and quite frankly his owner/team owe him one), and the other two are just mashing the ball right now. Slide Teixeira in here if you don't like Young or Vmart. Not really any other options unless you want to throw Ben Zobrist into the mix for his flexibility.
Outfield - Jose Bautista (TOR), Curtis Granderson (NYY), Carlos Quentin (CHI), Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS), Matt Joyce (TB), Adam Jones (BAL), Alex Gordon (KC)
I chose seven here, but I can't be too sure of any of them. The first two are a lock, but there are 5 or 6 names in a close race for the last two spots. Josh Hamilton doesn't have enough games under his belt, and Brennan Boesch just misses the cut because Baltimore & KC needed a representative.
Starting Pitcher - Jered Weaver (LAA), Josh Beckett (BOS), Alexi Ogando (TEX), Justin Verlander (DET), Michael Pineda (SEA), Gio Gonzalez (OAK), Scott Baker (MIN)
A few fresh faces, but these guys have had the best starts to the season. Notable omissions will be CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez who are both pitching well, but just not good enough to crack the list with no one else on Minnesota worthy of an All-Star bid.
Relief Pitcher - Mariano Rivera (NYY), Kyle Farnsworth (TB), Jordan Walden (LAA), Jose Valverde (DET)
Rivera is still the best in the game, Farnsworth is making hitters look foolish and Valverde & Walden are getting the job done with little fanfare, but plenty of strikeouts. Easy Choices.
Catcher - Alex Avila (DET), Russell Martin (NYY)
One position into the selection and I'm already annoyed by how the voters are voting. Martin lit the world on fire in April, but is a replacement level player since then. Avila is more than a half a million votes behind, but he's the best catcher in the AL right now not named V-Mart.
First Base - Adrian Gonzalez (BOS), Miguel Cabrera (DET), Paul Konerko (CHI)
Always a tough decision, but AGon is the best at the position right now and both Konerko and Cabrera get the edge over Mark Teixeira right now, though he's next in line should just about any offensive player fall.
Second Base - Robinson Cano (NYY), Howie Kendrick (LAA)
Cano is the best of the bunch, but I think Kendrick will get a spot in the mix because of his hot start and solid OBP. Dustin Pedroia has made a case for himself lately, but with Michael Young being a deserving All-Star and having some skills at 2B, I think he steals the show from either Pedroia or Ian Kinsler.
Shortstop - Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE), Jhonny Peralta (DET), Derek Jeter (NYY)
It's an absolute travesty that Jeter will make this team seeing how he's about the 10th best shortstop in his own league right now, but he's the leading vote getter. JJ Hardy deserves consideration though injuries have held him back a bit. Elvis Andrus is also an option for his speed and run scoring abilities.
Third Base - Adrian Beltre (TEX), Alex Rodriguez (NYY), Kevin Youkilis (BOS)
The three best will make the show here, though the order is a toss up. Voting will probably remain close until the last week. Evan Longoria has played himself out of contention for this year.
Utility/DH - Michael Young (TEX), David Ortiz (BOS), Victor Martinez (DET)
Young does it all (and quite frankly his owner/team owe him one), and the other two are just mashing the ball right now. Slide Teixeira in here if you don't like Young or Vmart. Not really any other options unless you want to throw Ben Zobrist into the mix for his flexibility.
Outfield - Jose Bautista (TOR), Curtis Granderson (NYY), Carlos Quentin (CHI), Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS), Matt Joyce (TB), Adam Jones (BAL), Alex Gordon (KC)
I chose seven here, but I can't be too sure of any of them. The first two are a lock, but there are 5 or 6 names in a close race for the last two spots. Josh Hamilton doesn't have enough games under his belt, and Brennan Boesch just misses the cut because Baltimore & KC needed a representative.
Starting Pitcher - Jered Weaver (LAA), Josh Beckett (BOS), Alexi Ogando (TEX), Justin Verlander (DET), Michael Pineda (SEA), Gio Gonzalez (OAK), Scott Baker (MIN)
A few fresh faces, but these guys have had the best starts to the season. Notable omissions will be CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez who are both pitching well, but just not good enough to crack the list with no one else on Minnesota worthy of an All-Star bid.
Relief Pitcher - Mariano Rivera (NYY), Kyle Farnsworth (TB), Jordan Walden (LAA), Jose Valverde (DET)
Rivera is still the best in the game, Farnsworth is making hitters look foolish and Valverde & Walden are getting the job done with little fanfare, but plenty of strikeouts. Easy Choices.
June 20, 2011
Dropped Strike Three's NL All-Star Picks!
With the All-Star Game just a few short weeks away and voting wrapping up in about 10 days, let the roster controversy begin! While I don't think either manager in this year's event is going to go the Omar Infante route, there are bound to be a few screw ups. With injuries aplenty among superstars, and a number of early stat leaders not even listed on the ballot, expect to see a few eyebrow raisers. That said, I'm going to dedicate today and tomorrow to my NL & AL All Star picks (respectively) and we'll revisit things in a few weeks to see how I made out...
Catcher - Brian McCann (ATL), Miguel Montero (ARI)
It's been a tough year for catchers. The normally thin crop was decimated even more with the loss of Buster Posey. McCann currently holds a sizable lead in the voting and the only other catcher worth the weight of hit bat at the plate is Miguel Montero.
First Base - Prince Fielder (MIL), Joey Votto (CIN), Ryan Howard (PHI)
I had to go back and dig through the numbers for this one. With Albert Pujols on the shelf for 4-6 weeks and a host of others spending time on the DL, I'm going with the three star first baseman that have played in just about every game for their teams. Fielder deserves it, Votto is getting credit for last year's snub, and Howard is just getting lucky based on numbers alone. I wouldn't be surprised/upset if he misses out, though.
Second Base - Brandon Phillips (CIN), Rickie Weeks (MIL)
With Chase Utley spending a lot of time on the DL and Dan Uggla playing like garbage, the job belongs to these two guys. Washington Rookie Danny Espinosa and Arizona's Kelly Johnson have an outside chance at getting in, but they really lack in the batting average department.
Shortstop - Jose Reyes (NYM), Troy Tulowitzki (COL), Starlin Castro (CHI)
No Hanley or Jimmy this year. The best SS in the game right now is Jose Reyes. Tulo is up there, but his extreme hot and extreme cold streaks make him more of a secondary pick. Castro is a solid backup to both of them and deserving of the job.
Third Base - Placido Polanco (PHI), Neil Walker (PIT)
Polanco is the leader in the vote and rightfully so, though his recent performance at the plate has been lackluster. Neil Walker has played some 2nd and 3rd this year and put up impressive power numbers so I'm giving him the nod as the 2nd pick.
Outfield - Matt Kemp (LAD), Ryan Braun (MIL), Jay Bruce (CIN), Lance Berkman (STL), Hunter Pence (HOU), Matt Holliday (STL)
It's tough to argue with any of these guys when you look at the stats. Carlos Beltran holds an outside shot at earning a spot, but the top 6 are in a class of their own. If a a Beltran or a Victorino gets a spot it will be at the expense of the next two guys...
Utility - Michael Morse (WAS), Gaby Sanchez (FLA)
These two are likely to be members of the last chance vote and might come down to a manager's decision. They've both played out of their minds this season, though they unfortunately play most of their games at 1st Base. Still, I think you will find both of them sneaking into the game with Morse being the only worthy Nationals player at this point.
Starting Pitchers - Roy Halladay (PHI), Cole Hamels (PHI), Tommy Hanson (ATL), Jair Jurrjens (ATL), Cliff Lee (PHI), Ian Kennedy (ARI), Clayton Kershaw (LAD), Tim Lincecum (SFG), Anibal Sanchez (FLA)
I waited this long to get a San Francisco Giants player into the roster and that's likely an oversight since their manager is picking and choosing the players, but I just couldn't find a Giant whose offensive production warrants a selection. This crop of starters, on the other hand, are all deserving and include more than a couple of first timers. Most of all, it shows just how deep the NL East is in pitching!
Relief Pitchers - Jonny Venters (ATL), Brian Wilson (SFG), John Axford (MIL), Joel Hanrahan (PIT), Heath Bell (SDP)
I give the nod to Venters over Kimbrel because I honestly believe he is the better pitcher. The rest of the guys are among the league leaders in saves and strikeouts; my two metrics for a solid closer. Heath Bell lands the final spot as the lone representative for the Padres.
Catcher - Brian McCann (ATL), Miguel Montero (ARI)
It's been a tough year for catchers. The normally thin crop was decimated even more with the loss of Buster Posey. McCann currently holds a sizable lead in the voting and the only other catcher worth the weight of hit bat at the plate is Miguel Montero.
First Base - Prince Fielder (MIL), Joey Votto (CIN), Ryan Howard (PHI)
I had to go back and dig through the numbers for this one. With Albert Pujols on the shelf for 4-6 weeks and a host of others spending time on the DL, I'm going with the three star first baseman that have played in just about every game for their teams. Fielder deserves it, Votto is getting credit for last year's snub, and Howard is just getting lucky based on numbers alone. I wouldn't be surprised/upset if he misses out, though.
Second Base - Brandon Phillips (CIN), Rickie Weeks (MIL)
With Chase Utley spending a lot of time on the DL and Dan Uggla playing like garbage, the job belongs to these two guys. Washington Rookie Danny Espinosa and Arizona's Kelly Johnson have an outside chance at getting in, but they really lack in the batting average department.
Shortstop - Jose Reyes (NYM), Troy Tulowitzki (COL), Starlin Castro (CHI)
No Hanley or Jimmy this year. The best SS in the game right now is Jose Reyes. Tulo is up there, but his extreme hot and extreme cold streaks make him more of a secondary pick. Castro is a solid backup to both of them and deserving of the job.
Third Base - Placido Polanco (PHI), Neil Walker (PIT)
Polanco is the leader in the vote and rightfully so, though his recent performance at the plate has been lackluster. Neil Walker has played some 2nd and 3rd this year and put up impressive power numbers so I'm giving him the nod as the 2nd pick.
Outfield - Matt Kemp (LAD), Ryan Braun (MIL), Jay Bruce (CIN), Lance Berkman (STL), Hunter Pence (HOU), Matt Holliday (STL)
It's tough to argue with any of these guys when you look at the stats. Carlos Beltran holds an outside shot at earning a spot, but the top 6 are in a class of their own. If a a Beltran or a Victorino gets a spot it will be at the expense of the next two guys...
Utility - Michael Morse (WAS), Gaby Sanchez (FLA)
These two are likely to be members of the last chance vote and might come down to a manager's decision. They've both played out of their minds this season, though they unfortunately play most of their games at 1st Base. Still, I think you will find both of them sneaking into the game with Morse being the only worthy Nationals player at this point.
Starting Pitchers - Roy Halladay (PHI), Cole Hamels (PHI), Tommy Hanson (ATL), Jair Jurrjens (ATL), Cliff Lee (PHI), Ian Kennedy (ARI), Clayton Kershaw (LAD), Tim Lincecum (SFG), Anibal Sanchez (FLA)
I waited this long to get a San Francisco Giants player into the roster and that's likely an oversight since their manager is picking and choosing the players, but I just couldn't find a Giant whose offensive production warrants a selection. This crop of starters, on the other hand, are all deserving and include more than a couple of first timers. Most of all, it shows just how deep the NL East is in pitching!
Relief Pitchers - Jonny Venters (ATL), Brian Wilson (SFG), John Axford (MIL), Joel Hanrahan (PIT), Heath Bell (SDP)
I give the nod to Venters over Kimbrel because I honestly believe he is the better pitcher. The rest of the guys are among the league leaders in saves and strikeouts; my two metrics for a solid closer. Heath Bell lands the final spot as the lone representative for the Padres.
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