10 Bold Phillies Predictions

I had planned to write this article on the eve of the season, but I'm feeling a little antsy. There's probably a hundred versions of this list out there on various blogs and websites, but hopefully I'll have a few ideas that others don't come up with.

1. Cole Hamels wins 19 games: For at least the start of the season, Cole will be battling it out against other team's #4 starters. In division, that's Anibal Sanchez (FLA), Chris Capuano (NYM), Tommy Hanson (ATL), and Jason Marquis (WSH). The 4 of them combined for a 29-36 record last season with an ERA more than a run above Hamels. Cole had another tough year in the win column, but all stats indicate that was due to terrible run support and not his own performance. I see Hamels settling into his new role as the best #3-4 in the game and winning a ton of big games when opponents are expecting a let down. 
2. Joe Blanton does NOT have the fewest wins of the starting 5: Along the exact same lines, I'm predicting that of the Phillies starting 5 pitchers, Joe Blanton does not end the season with the fewest wins. I'm saying this partially because Heavy B will be matched up against other #5 starters and partially because I think one of the top 3 will spend some time on the DL. Joe will continue to be his workhorse self and win somewhere in the neighborhood of 14 games.
3. Citizens Bank Park will be a pitchers park: Despite the fact that everyone and their mother likes to refer to CBP as a band box or a hitters park, it has trended down in recent years. For 2010, CBP was one of the most neutral parks in baseball with a rating of .991 (anything above 1.0 favors hitters). With a full season of this pitching, combined with the reduction in homeruns by the home squad, I think CBP will continue to trend downward in the park factor category. Last year CBP was 16th, next year I'm predicting 20th.
4. Chase Utley plays a full season: Despite a little knee tendinitis and the fact that he hasn't played a spring training game to date, I'm predicting a DL free season for Chase. That said, I think this will be the year that Charlie Manuel finally starts giving him days off. Wilson Valdez has proven to be a competent fielder and Josh Barfield is looking like an early standout as an infield utility player. I think the Phillies will have the luxury of giving Chase a dozen or so games off during the season to keep him healthy.
5. Jimmy Rollins will continue his slide: It's time to face the music... we've seen the best of Jimmy Rollins. Considering the amount of terrible shortstops in baseball, a .250/15HR/30SB line out of Jimmy Rollins will get the job done, but his MVP year is an absolute anomaly. While he'll start the season as the leadoff hitter, I don't think he'll keep the job for more than a month. J-roll will still be a gold glove caliber fielder, but he is no longer an elite shortstop. That said, as a bonus prediction, this isn't going to be his last year in Philadelphia.
6. Matt Rizzotti or Jonathan Singleton will see playing time at the major league level this year: Singleton is ranked atop the Phillies prospect list, but Rizzotti is the guy closest to the majors. Unfortunately, a guy with a $125M contract sits in both of their way. The Phillies have shielded both of these guys from trades in recent years so I think they see the value in their skillsets despite the position they play. Look for both to see some playing time at corner outfield positions this year. I expect one of the two will be a highly touted piece of trade bait come the deadline. I think one of the two will see a late season call up with the Phillies or another team.
7. Ben Francisco will see more playing time than Domonic Brown: Not to say Brown is a bust, but he's struggling right now. Looking at his stats, this is the first time in his baseball career that he's had some adversity to deal with and he's having a tough time overcoming it. Ben Francisco, on the other hand, is handling the pressure admirably. He knows there is a superstar in waiting breathing down his neck and he's going to have to put up or shut up this spring. So far, he's done the former. I'm predicting Charlie decides to let Brown see every day playing time in Lehigh Valley or Reading to start the season, but we see Domonic back on the squad just prior to the All-Star break. 
8. The Phillies win the division with ease: Most baseball pundits are predicting the Phillies to win the NL East, but most are calling it a close race. I'm here to tell you it won't be. The Braves are the most likely competitor and they are facing a new manager, a new closer, a rookie first baseman, a right fielder that could face a sophomore slump, a 3rd baseman who is past his prime, and a pitching staff with a few question marks. The talent is there, but I think the Braves will spend the year ironing out some kinks before they can compete with the Phils in 2012. 
9. A Phillies pitcher wins the Cy Young again: Last year's winner Roy Halladay was a unanimous victor. His closest competitor, Adam Wainwright is out for the season with Tommy John surgery. The Cardinals other top pitcher, Chris Carpenter, is on the shelf as well. Ubaldo Jimenez is closer to the 2nd half Ubaldo than the first. That leaves Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum, and Tim Hudson as main non-Phillies contenders. If they perform up to their billing, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, and Cliff Lee are all in the same class as the other 4. I'm predicting that Halladay repeats as Cy Young because he is just that good... but all 4 of the Phillies Aces will receive a vote. 
10. The Phillies learn to play small-ball: With Jayson Werth leaving town, I think the trend in Philadelphia is turning to more of a double/slap hitting style of play. Those who know me, know that I love a high average hitter and I love the way Victorino can drag a ball down the line and be halfway to first base before the ball lands. With this pitching staff only needing a few runs a game to get the job done, I think we're finally going to see a progression toward moving runners along, and taking more pitches. Even Jimmy has to know by now that he's not a 30HR hitter and that he's most valuable standing on first base working over a pitcher. I'm predicting a minimum of 4 guys bat .285 or better this upcoming season.