Hump Day Phillies Thoughts

• I was a believer at first and if I were to scroll back through the archives, I'm sure I  said more than once that Ben Francisco would be just fine in RF for the Phillies. Well, I was wrong. It doesn't happen often, but when it does I'm usually very wrong. This is one of those cases. The power swing that we saw in Spring Training has resulted in a ton of long fly balls so far this season. His line drive rate just isn't high enough to sustain any sort of success as an every day player. Fortunately, Domonic Brown seems just about ready to go. So long as Brown puts the ball in play and improves his OBP from last year, the upgrade is more than marginal. In fact, if Brown plays exactly as he did last year, he's essentially the same as Francisco and John Mayberry Jr anyway. The power may not manifest itself right away (as is usually the case with a broken hamate bone), but Brown's .300 AVG potential, stolen base threat, and defensive prowess in RF should compensate for any shortcomings he has. I'm thinking that Brown is a 5 day a week player by mid June. 

•  General Soreness himself, Chase Utley has been enjoying the Florida sun the past week or so with some extended Spring Training work and his first minor league assignment with Clearwater yesterday. A lot of people pointed to his 5 for 7 performance with 2 HRs as a great sign in his first game, but I'm focusing in on the fact that he hit an infield single. It sounds to me like the wheels are working. moving left and right might prove to be the biggest challenge, but it certainly seems like Utley has been easing himself into a full workload while trying to maintain the basics. Still, I can't help but wonder if Joe Blanton would have gotten so lucky with 4 double play balls the other night had Utley been turning them over instead of Pete Orr. Sounds like most of the beat writers are expecting an Utley return for the two game series against Colorado starting on the 18th, which means we could possibly be seeing the end of the Pete Orr/Wilson Valdez offensive disaster at 2B. Utley started in Cleawater yesterday, but not today so don't expect to see 6 games a week of Utley when he first returns, but anything from 26 would be nice!

• I read an article this morning from The Talented Mr. Roto that said to take the under on 50 combined HRs from Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Utley. So I did a little research... Howard's 8 HRs right now put him on pace for about 37 for the season. Probably not enough to win a HR title, but certainly nothing to turn your nose up at. But looking at his career numbers through 35 games, here's his yearly totals: 
• 2006 - 10 (52 total)
• 2007 - 9 (47 total)
• 2008 - 6 (48 total)
• 2009 - 8 (45 total)
• 2010 - 6 (31 total)

I don't see how 40 HRs isn't a given. His .274 BA is about his career average at this point and his RBI numbers project him right up into the 150 range he usually is. There is nothing to be concerned with here. Rollins and Utley will contribute another 25-30 between them making 50 HRs a mark easily attainable before the end of August.

• The injury bug is back this year, but the team has kept trucking along. Considering that your All Star 2nd baseman and Closer haven't played a game, your expert game caller hasn't been behind the plate in 2 weeks, your #3 and #5 pitchers have missed starts due to injury, and your backup closer hit the DL as well, you'd think there would be a little more panic in the air. But 23-12 is tops in the NL and 2nd best in baseball. The Phils enter tonight with a good chance to take 2 out of 3 from the team chasing them in the standings and finish out their month with what I would call their toughest stretch of the season with series against Atlanta, St Louis, Colorado, Texas, Cincinnati, and 2 division opponents in a 20 games in 20 days marathon. The first five opponents site right now with a record of 99-66 and a winning percentage of exactly .600. This is the first true test of the season and coming out with a 12-8 record would have to be considered a success.... But the stars are all aligning for this stretch with Utley, Carlos Ruiz, Roy Oswalt, Blanton, and Brown all likely to see some action. It's certainly shaping up to be an exciting end to the spring. By Memorial Day Weekend, we should know exactly what this team is made of!