Hump Day Phillies Thoughts

• I was a believer at first and if I were to scroll back through the archives, I'm sure I  said more than once that Ben Francisco would be just fine in RF for the Phillies. Well, I was wrong. It doesn't happen often, but when it does I'm usually very wrong. This is one of those cases. The power swing that we saw in Spring Training has resulted in a ton of long fly balls so far this season. His line drive rate just isn't high enough to sustain any sort of success as an every day player. Fortunately, Domonic Brown seems just about ready to go. So long as Brown puts the ball in play and improves his OBP from last year, the upgrade is more than marginal. In fact, if Brown plays exactly as he did last year, he's essentially the same as Francisco and John Mayberry Jr anyway. The power may not manifest itself right away (as is usually the case with a broken hamate bone), but Brown's .300 AVG potential, stolen base threat, and defensive prowess in RF should compensate for any shortcomings he has. I'm thinking that Brown is a 5 day a week player by mid June. 

•  General Soreness himself, Chase Utley has been enjoying the Florida sun the past week or so with some extended Spring Training work and his first minor league assignment with Clearwater yesterday. A lot of people pointed to his 5 for 7 performance with 2 HRs as a great sign in his first game, but I'm focusing in on the fact that he hit an infield single. It sounds to me like the wheels are working. moving left and right might prove to be the biggest challenge, but it certainly seems like Utley has been easing himself into a full workload while trying to maintain the basics. Still, I can't help but wonder if Joe Blanton would have gotten so lucky with 4 double play balls the other night had Utley been turning them over instead of Pete Orr. Sounds like most of the beat writers are expecting an Utley return for the two game series against Colorado starting on the 18th, which means we could possibly be seeing the end of the Pete Orr/Wilson Valdez offensive disaster at 2B. Utley started in Cleawater yesterday, but not today so don't expect to see 6 games a week of Utley when he first returns, but anything from 26 would be nice!

• I read an article this morning from The Talented Mr. Roto that said to take the under on 50 combined HRs from Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Utley. So I did a little research... Howard's 8 HRs right now put him on pace for about 37 for the season. Probably not enough to win a HR title, but certainly nothing to turn your nose up at. But looking at his career numbers through 35 games, here's his yearly totals: 
• 2006 - 10 (52 total)
• 2007 - 9 (47 total)
• 2008 - 6 (48 total)
• 2009 - 8 (45 total)
• 2010 - 6 (31 total)

I don't see how 40 HRs isn't a given. His .274 BA is about his career average at this point and his RBI numbers project him right up into the 150 range he usually is. There is nothing to be concerned with here. Rollins and Utley will contribute another 25-30 between them making 50 HRs a mark easily attainable before the end of August.

• The injury bug is back this year, but the team has kept trucking along. Considering that your All Star 2nd baseman and Closer haven't played a game, your expert game caller hasn't been behind the plate in 2 weeks, your #3 and #5 pitchers have missed starts due to injury, and your backup closer hit the DL as well, you'd think there would be a little more panic in the air. But 23-12 is tops in the NL and 2nd best in baseball. The Phils enter tonight with a good chance to take 2 out of 3 from the team chasing them in the standings and finish out their month with what I would call their toughest stretch of the season with series against Atlanta, St Louis, Colorado, Texas, Cincinnati, and 2 division opponents in a 20 games in 20 days marathon. The first five opponents site right now with a record of 99-66 and a winning percentage of exactly .600. This is the first true test of the season and coming out with a 12-8 record would have to be considered a success.... But the stars are all aligning for this stretch with Utley, Carlos Ruiz, Roy Oswalt, Blanton, and Brown all likely to see some action. It's certainly shaping up to be an exciting end to the spring. By Memorial Day Weekend, we should know exactly what this team is made of!

Jayson Werth is Delusional

One one hand, you can't fault Jayson Werth for trying to make the best out of what is destined to be a bad situation for a number of years. It's going to take a few more rounds worth of can't miss prospects and some incredibly lucky free agent finds before the Nationals are a competitive team. On the other hand, he may just be out of his mind...

“Last year when we played the Mets, there weren’t any Mets fans in the seats,” Werth said. “They wouldn’t dare come down. I think four years from now, it’ll be the same way in Washington. Or sooner.”

First of all, I completely disagree. While there may have been more Mets fans at CBP in years past, their proximity to Philadelphia makes them plentiful in our ballpark regardless of their record. I would say that Yankees and Red Sox fans are the only larger groups at CBP (arguably the case with every stadium in the country.)

But more importantly, Jayson, the Nats are still the Nats. While I think it's great for baseball that our nation's capitol has a team with an owner that is willing to spend some money to produce a competitive product, Jayson Werth's 4 year prediction probably isn't realistic. The Mets are a rare case of implosion due to financial woes and terrible management. Don't expect the rest of the division to fall off the wagon in the same fashion.  The Braves are on the rise and have as much young talent as any team in the game. The Marlins are loaded with Logan Morrisons and Mike Stantons (and hardly a single player on their roster over 30). The Phillies are in their prime with a surprisingly well stocked farm system. And the Mets... well, okay Jayson, you win that one.

Like it or not, this Jayson Werth vs. Philadelphia story line is going to exist for a little while longer. When he makes his first visit to Citizens Bank Park on May 3rd, prepare to hear some boos. Hell, there's a pretty solid chance he'll get boo'd at his home stadium tonight with a crowd that is destined to be almost 50% Phillies fans once again. But you probably won't hear them from me. He was a nice player, but I neither miss him, nor hold any ill will. He took the money and ran... but who wouldn't? If I was offered $126M dollars to blog about the Mets, we'd be talking about Carlos Beltran right now and there would be a Jose Reyes Bobblehead on my desk instead of Jimmy Rollins. He was a scrap heap project that Charlie Manuel was successful with, but I think guys like him can grow on trees. Despite the numbers he put up the past two years, he's far from a polished hitter. Todd Zolecki just posted up a series of rankings for Jayson Werth's numbers and he falls in the mid 20s for most categories. A good, but probably not great player (and certainly not one worth $100M +). I cringe watching him drop to one knee after a hack that was 12" away from the ball. He was brutal with RISP last season. And I'm a firm believer that Ben Francisco's early success as an every day player this year is no fluke. This lineup simply gives opportunities for guys like Werth & Francisco to see strikes.

The Nationals are 21-51 against the Phillies in the last 4 years for a .291 win %. Don't expect that to change in the next four years, Jayson.

Your 2011 Phillies: Fantasy Baseball Outlook Part 1

C - Carlos Ruiz:
The guy had the best year of his career in 2010 and is priced so cheap in most leagues that he's tempting to snatch up. But as impressive as his clutch performance has been, it doesn't earn you extra fantasy points. Single digit HRs and 50 RBI are about the going rate for any catcher with a full time job. Chooch is certainly capable of repeating his 2010, but that still doesn't make him a viable option in anything but the deepest of mixed or NL only leagues.

1B - Ryan Howard
I've gone back and forth almost a dozen times on my Ryan Howard opinion. First Base is an incredibly deep position where the difference between Adrian Gonzalez in round 2 and Justin Morneau in round 7 might not be all that much. But I have a feeling that Ryan Howard is about to find his stroke once again. His strikeout rate has dropped significantly over the last two years and his spring numbers suggest that he's putting good wood on the ball. Few of his counterparts work as hard as Howard at improving his flaws and as a guy who has been dropping down draft boards, 40 HR and 125+ RBI are starting to look like a real bargain after the 2nd round.

2B - Chase Utley
A month ago, he's the 2nd best second baseman in the game and being drafted in the first round. Now, I won him in an auction league for $12 last Friday. The knee is worrisome, but at middle infield spots, there isn't a plethora of other options better than Chase. It's still looking as if surgery is the less likely scenario and I'll predict 130 games for Chase this year. What can he possibly do in 130 games? Well in 2007 he hit .332, had 22 HRs, and 100+ Runs and RBI. A one legged Chase Utley is still capable of elite numbers for his position. While he should fall down a few rounds, he's worth it if his value is deflated enough.

SS - Jimmy Rollins
2007 Jimmy Rollins is dead. He'll never be a 30/30 guy again, and he'll never knock you in 90 runs. While some owners are likely to take a shot at him because the potential is still there for him to perform like a Jose Reyes, I'm going to tell you not to. You'll only be disappointed. While Jimmy has been regressing, the rest of the world has caught up to him. Shortstop isn't an incredibly deep position, but there are a handful of guys out there who will give you 75 R, 20SB, and 15HR which is about Jimmy's upside. Pass on Rollins and take a risk on Starlin Castro instead.

3B - Placido Polanco
Possibly the most scarce position in fantasy baseball this year, third basemen are hard to come by. After Longoria/Zimmerman/Arod/Bautista fall off the board, your options plummet. That still doesn't make Polanco a viable one. His position eligibility at 2nd base boosts his value as a middle infielder and his elbow injury isn't really anything that should concern you, but he is what he is. I love him on my real team, but wouldn't want him clogging up my fantasy team.

LF - Raul Ibanez
I'm one of the few guys who see some value here. Raul has a history of streaky behavior while in a Phillies uniform. But one thing that has been prevalent throughout his career is that a hot spring = a fast start to the season. Guess what? Raul is hitting the ball well this spring. Draft him and ride the wave until his first epic slump occurs. At the end of the year he'll put up the usual 25 HR, 85 RBI, .275 batting average but it will most certainly have its ups and downs.

CF - Shane Victorino
Power/Speed guys are hard to come by. But speed guys are becoming more prevalent. I'm not quite sure which category to put Victorino. 18HRs with 34SBs in 2010 puts him in the first category so if you think he's capable of a repeat, go for it. I still think he's a notch below guys like Andrew McCutchen and Shin-Soo-Choo, but if he can hit .280 and put up similar numbers to last year, he's worth a lot more than you might think.

RF - Ben Francisco
For the sake of this post, I'm assuming Ben Francisco is your starting RF for the entire season. He's likely going for dirt cheap in just about every league. While he's never had one particular year that jumps out at you, his 162 game career averages aren't all that bad. 18 HR and 12 SB are easily attainable, and 65 RBI are a low estimate. He'll likely start the season batting 5th which should give him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. Comparable to Jayson Werth? No, probably not. But most of the same tools are there. In a deep league, he's worth a flier.