Lunch Time Link Dump

• Despite having a pretty disappointing season power wise, Ryan Howard is still among the league leaders in RBI. There has been tons of discussion about whether or not the RBI is overvalued, but it's tough to argue with the fact that Ryan Howard has produced runs in big situations. He's a bit of the Anti-Abreu in that respect. Fan Graphs took a look at Howard's numbers and determined that he has come to bat a league leading 141 times with runners in scoring position. So there's plenty of luck associated with his productivity. But as a lot of the commenters have pointed out, his .313/.418/.509 stat line during those situations is very telling about the way defenses have to play him with runners on second or third base. As Mike Schmidt pointed out in the interview I posted a few weeks ago, Ryan Howard desperately needs to learn to put the ball to the opposite field in order to improve his rate stats. The Good Phight looks at his OBI% over the last few years to determine that he is really efficient at driving in runners in front of him. But his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) with bases empty is a solid 24 points lower than with a runner in scoring position (.316 versus .340). It's not just strikeouts that are making Howard's contract look like a looming black cloud, but you can expect gaudy RBI numbers to continue at the same clip.

• Wanna hit homeruns like... Jose Canseco? Then buy his slowpitch softball bat!

"The Bass Jose Canseco Juiced features a one-piece construction made from Bass' new Anabolic Composite material. This composite design will inject a new level of power into your game and gives the bat added strength and toughness that won't wear down."

For the record, I'm rolling my eyes right now. It's a step above celebrity boxing, but clearly this man's desperation knows no ends. 

• On the prospect front, Bullpen Banter recently posted up their Top 100 Prospects report that features 5 Phillies in the top 100. Any player who has had an at bat or thrown a pitch was deemed ineligible for this list so it's a true list of prospects. The one that excites me the most right now is catcher Sebastian Valle. While his defensive skills seem to need a little more refinement, every report indicates that his athleticism is top notch for a catcher. At the All Star Futures game a few weeks back, he had two solid at bats roping a double down the line and flying out to CF. Scouts seem to indicate that he is transitioning very well against top notch pitching. While Chooch has surprised a lot of people with his offense, I don't believe he was ever thought of as a long term catching prospect. If Valle continues to produce, I think he could be wearing pinstripes by 2013. Check out Phuture Phillies midseason prospect report for even more Phillies news.

• Coming up on August 13th, a pretty huge Phillies Autograph signing at Bucks County Technical School. I've been to a couple of these in the past and while they're populated by the scurveyest people you'll ever come across and they generally smell like gymnasium full of old Italian hoagies, they're a great place for autograph and memorabilia seekers. Looks like Scott Mathieson, Mike Stutes, and John Mayberry Jr will be there from the current squad along with a host of former Phils.

Keep an eye out over the next few days. Hopefully we'll have a few more writers contributing to the site!

Hump Day Phillies Thoughts

• I was a believer at first and if I were to scroll back through the archives, I'm sure I  said more than once that Ben Francisco would be just fine in RF for the Phillies. Well, I was wrong. It doesn't happen often, but when it does I'm usually very wrong. This is one of those cases. The power swing that we saw in Spring Training has resulted in a ton of long fly balls so far this season. His line drive rate just isn't high enough to sustain any sort of success as an every day player. Fortunately, Domonic Brown seems just about ready to go. So long as Brown puts the ball in play and improves his OBP from last year, the upgrade is more than marginal. In fact, if Brown plays exactly as he did last year, he's essentially the same as Francisco and John Mayberry Jr anyway. The power may not manifest itself right away (as is usually the case with a broken hamate bone), but Brown's .300 AVG potential, stolen base threat, and defensive prowess in RF should compensate for any shortcomings he has. I'm thinking that Brown is a 5 day a week player by mid June. 

•  General Soreness himself, Chase Utley has been enjoying the Florida sun the past week or so with some extended Spring Training work and his first minor league assignment with Clearwater yesterday. A lot of people pointed to his 5 for 7 performance with 2 HRs as a great sign in his first game, but I'm focusing in on the fact that he hit an infield single. It sounds to me like the wheels are working. moving left and right might prove to be the biggest challenge, but it certainly seems like Utley has been easing himself into a full workload while trying to maintain the basics. Still, I can't help but wonder if Joe Blanton would have gotten so lucky with 4 double play balls the other night had Utley been turning them over instead of Pete Orr. Sounds like most of the beat writers are expecting an Utley return for the two game series against Colorado starting on the 18th, which means we could possibly be seeing the end of the Pete Orr/Wilson Valdez offensive disaster at 2B. Utley started in Cleawater yesterday, but not today so don't expect to see 6 games a week of Utley when he first returns, but anything from 26 would be nice!

• I read an article this morning from The Talented Mr. Roto that said to take the under on 50 combined HRs from Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Utley. So I did a little research... Howard's 8 HRs right now put him on pace for about 37 for the season. Probably not enough to win a HR title, but certainly nothing to turn your nose up at. But looking at his career numbers through 35 games, here's his yearly totals: 
• 2006 - 10 (52 total)
• 2007 - 9 (47 total)
• 2008 - 6 (48 total)
• 2009 - 8 (45 total)
• 2010 - 6 (31 total)

I don't see how 40 HRs isn't a given. His .274 BA is about his career average at this point and his RBI numbers project him right up into the 150 range he usually is. There is nothing to be concerned with here. Rollins and Utley will contribute another 25-30 between them making 50 HRs a mark easily attainable before the end of August.

• The injury bug is back this year, but the team has kept trucking along. Considering that your All Star 2nd baseman and Closer haven't played a game, your expert game caller hasn't been behind the plate in 2 weeks, your #3 and #5 pitchers have missed starts due to injury, and your backup closer hit the DL as well, you'd think there would be a little more panic in the air. But 23-12 is tops in the NL and 2nd best in baseball. The Phils enter tonight with a good chance to take 2 out of 3 from the team chasing them in the standings and finish out their month with what I would call their toughest stretch of the season with series against Atlanta, St Louis, Colorado, Texas, Cincinnati, and 2 division opponents in a 20 games in 20 days marathon. The first five opponents site right now with a record of 99-66 and a winning percentage of exactly .600. This is the first true test of the season and coming out with a 12-8 record would have to be considered a success.... But the stars are all aligning for this stretch with Utley, Carlos Ruiz, Roy Oswalt, Blanton, and Brown all likely to see some action. It's certainly shaping up to be an exciting end to the spring. By Memorial Day Weekend, we should know exactly what this team is made of!

Your 2011 Phillies: Fantasy Baseball Outlook Part 1

C - Carlos Ruiz:
The guy had the best year of his career in 2010 and is priced so cheap in most leagues that he's tempting to snatch up. But as impressive as his clutch performance has been, it doesn't earn you extra fantasy points. Single digit HRs and 50 RBI are about the going rate for any catcher with a full time job. Chooch is certainly capable of repeating his 2010, but that still doesn't make him a viable option in anything but the deepest of mixed or NL only leagues.

1B - Ryan Howard
I've gone back and forth almost a dozen times on my Ryan Howard opinion. First Base is an incredibly deep position where the difference between Adrian Gonzalez in round 2 and Justin Morneau in round 7 might not be all that much. But I have a feeling that Ryan Howard is about to find his stroke once again. His strikeout rate has dropped significantly over the last two years and his spring numbers suggest that he's putting good wood on the ball. Few of his counterparts work as hard as Howard at improving his flaws and as a guy who has been dropping down draft boards, 40 HR and 125+ RBI are starting to look like a real bargain after the 2nd round.

2B - Chase Utley
A month ago, he's the 2nd best second baseman in the game and being drafted in the first round. Now, I won him in an auction league for $12 last Friday. The knee is worrisome, but at middle infield spots, there isn't a plethora of other options better than Chase. It's still looking as if surgery is the less likely scenario and I'll predict 130 games for Chase this year. What can he possibly do in 130 games? Well in 2007 he hit .332, had 22 HRs, and 100+ Runs and RBI. A one legged Chase Utley is still capable of elite numbers for his position. While he should fall down a few rounds, he's worth it if his value is deflated enough.

SS - Jimmy Rollins
2007 Jimmy Rollins is dead. He'll never be a 30/30 guy again, and he'll never knock you in 90 runs. While some owners are likely to take a shot at him because the potential is still there for him to perform like a Jose Reyes, I'm going to tell you not to. You'll only be disappointed. While Jimmy has been regressing, the rest of the world has caught up to him. Shortstop isn't an incredibly deep position, but there are a handful of guys out there who will give you 75 R, 20SB, and 15HR which is about Jimmy's upside. Pass on Rollins and take a risk on Starlin Castro instead.

3B - Placido Polanco
Possibly the most scarce position in fantasy baseball this year, third basemen are hard to come by. After Longoria/Zimmerman/Arod/Bautista fall off the board, your options plummet. That still doesn't make Polanco a viable one. His position eligibility at 2nd base boosts his value as a middle infielder and his elbow injury isn't really anything that should concern you, but he is what he is. I love him on my real team, but wouldn't want him clogging up my fantasy team.

LF - Raul Ibanez
I'm one of the few guys who see some value here. Raul has a history of streaky behavior while in a Phillies uniform. But one thing that has been prevalent throughout his career is that a hot spring = a fast start to the season. Guess what? Raul is hitting the ball well this spring. Draft him and ride the wave until his first epic slump occurs. At the end of the year he'll put up the usual 25 HR, 85 RBI, .275 batting average but it will most certainly have its ups and downs.

CF - Shane Victorino
Power/Speed guys are hard to come by. But speed guys are becoming more prevalent. I'm not quite sure which category to put Victorino. 18HRs with 34SBs in 2010 puts him in the first category so if you think he's capable of a repeat, go for it. I still think he's a notch below guys like Andrew McCutchen and Shin-Soo-Choo, but if he can hit .280 and put up similar numbers to last year, he's worth a lot more than you might think.

RF - Ben Francisco
For the sake of this post, I'm assuming Ben Francisco is your starting RF for the entire season. He's likely going for dirt cheap in just about every league. While he's never had one particular year that jumps out at you, his 162 game career averages aren't all that bad. 18 HR and 12 SB are easily attainable, and 65 RBI are a low estimate. He'll likely start the season batting 5th which should give him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. Comparable to Jayson Werth? No, probably not. But most of the same tools are there. In a deep league, he's worth a flier.