August 24, 2011

37 Players Have Worn A Phillies Jersey This Year. 25 Make The Post Season Roster. You Do The Math.


With 35 games left in the season, the Phillies need only to go 18-17 to tie their franchise high of 101 wins. That would mean than nearly 30% of their losses on the season would need to come in the final month. In their worst month this season (May), the Phillies still managed to go 16-13. At no point in the season have they lost more than 4 games in a row. If they were to go 18-17 and lose the division to the Braves, the Giants would need to win EVERY GAME (33-0) in order to TIE the Phillies in the Wild Card. I guess what I'm trying to say is that a fifth straight post season trip is pretty much a forgone conclusion.

That said, there are some very interesting decisions to be made in the coming weeks regarding the roster. Nagging injuries to guys like Polanco and Hamels have kept the Phils from having to make the tough call on a lot of fringe players, but come September 30th, you can be that the sore groins and bruised heels will be played through while the Phillies make their post season push. As the title states, 37 players have donned the pinstripes this year. While that may seem like a lot, it's actually less than the 42.25 player average the Phillies have had during their 2007-2011 run of success. It's also less than the Brewers (44), Diamondbacks (46), Braves (41), and Giants (40) have used this year. And it's also a number that in all likelihood will change with September call ups and the potential for a waiver claim in the coming days.

But still, focusing on the post season lineup is far more interesting than previewing a Kyle Kendrick versus Mike Pelfrey afternoon matchup where the Phillies go for the sweep and the Mets just try to avoid falling behind the Marlins and into last place in the division...

The Starting 8:
1. Carlos Ruiz
2. Ryan Howard
3. Chase Utley
4. Jimmy Rollins
5. Placido Polanco
6. Raul Ibanez
7. Shane Victorino
8. Hunter Pence

Already a bit of controversy as John Mayberry Jr has earned himself at least a platoon position with Ibanez in left field. But Charlie is a veteran loyalist and so long as he is healthy, Raul should start Game 1 of every playoff series. What Mayberry has done since his latest recall is impressive, but he may actually hold more value as a bench player anyway.

The Rotation:
9. Roy Halladay
10. Cliff Lee
11. Cole Hamels
12. Roy Oswalt
13. Vance Worley

There isn't likely to be an opportunity for Worley to start a post-season game, but he's locked down a roster spot with his play. He's shown an uncanny ability to wiggle his way out of tough positions so his role could very likely be as the guy who comes in an early tight game where the starter is laboring with runners in scoring position.

The Bench:
14. Brian Schneider
15. John Mayberry Jr
16. Wilson Valdez
17. Michael Martinez
18. Domonic Brown
19. Ross Gload / Other (Jim Thome?) / Ben Francisco

The Bullpen:
20. Ryan Madson
21. Antonio Bastardo
22. Kyle Kendrick
23. David Herndon
24. Brad Lidge / Michael Stutes
25. Juan Perez / Joe Blanton

MAJOR question marks right here, though I've placed them in the order that I prefer for each spot. First off, I'm establishing that the Phillies will not go with a bench deeper than 6 bats. There are just too many question marks in the bullpen to go with 6 arms (Worley really counts as a 7th bullpen guy). I can gripe about them as much as I want and the existence of each of them makes the other expandable, but injury concerns at 3 of the 4 infield positions make Michael Martinez and Wilson Valdez both a necessity. One wrong move early in a game could send Utley. Rollins, or Polanco to the shelf for a game or two and you cannot afford to only have one utility infielder with such risk. Schneider is your obvious backup catcher and Mayberry is your obvious power bat from the right side who could play 1B or OF.

That leaves you in need of a left handed bat and another capable outfielder. The obvious solution for that dilemma is Domonic Brown. He's had a tough go at it since his return to the minors to say the least. But the raw tools are still there and he fits the bill better than anyone in the organization. Ross Gload has shown no power and has become an absolute liability on the base paths. He'd also make a terrible defensive outfield option. Ben Francisco is only on the Phillies at the moment because Domonic Brown needs every day playing time in the minors and there are no other major league ready outfield options available. Brandon Moss is a name that I've heard tossed around due in part to his 22 HRs at Lehigh Valley this year, but it would take a pretty epic September for him to fully get his name on the radar. The best option available for the last spot on the bench might just be someone who isn't currently on the roster. Jim Thome is a pipe dream because the Phillies would be 29th in line for a waiver claim (The White Sox may have already made such a claim). The only hope for a reunion would be for the Twins to outright release him and let him choose his next destination, though there is no real incentive to do so. Most other major league veteran options would require a hefty over-payment for a rental job with the Phillies. If I were thinking COMPLETELY outside of the box on this one, I might consider former supplemental 1st round pick Matt Mangini who was just released by the Mariners. He's not exactly a household name, but he was tearing up the Pacific Coast League to the tune of a .336/.399/.409 line this season. Come to think of it, Ben Francisco might be a better option after all...

And finally, the bullpen... Madson, Bastardo, Kendrick are all locks. Brad Lidge is next on the list of probables due to past performance and pedigree if nothing else. Next, I look to David Herndon who since his return from the minors has been relatively solid. His numbers have been moving up, while fellow right hander Michael Stutes' have been going down. Whether he's experiencing dead arm or if batters are just becoming wise to his arsenal of pitches, Stutes simply cannot produce a clean inning anymore. Now the Phillies currently carry both of these guys on the roster, but for the post-season I think I would prefer to see a 2nd lefty added to the mix. Bastardo has settled in as one of the top setup men in the league, but a playoff run requires a situational left-hander. The Phillies have been missing this guy since the departure of JC Romero and the best option at their disposal right now seems to be Juan Perez. I don't love it, but unless another lefty falls through the cracks, he's probably better risk than the loser of the Herndon-Stutes battle. The other guy that could possibly weasel himself into the mix is Joe Blanton. While still recovering and suffering some setbacks, Blanton appears desperate to return to pitching sometime before the end of the season. If granted a trial run towards the end of September, he could potentially add his name to the mix for the final RHP job.

With a little more than a month to go, these questions are only going to become more pertinent. 

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