Rounding Out The Past Few Weeks of Phillies News

Unfortunately for the 3 or 4 of you who read this, the job that pays me money has required me to do some actual work in the past few weeks. We're talking 8+ hours a day and conference calls on weekends. Our founding fathers would be very disappointed to know that I was in the office on President's Day! But alas, I haven't been hiding completely under a rock for the past few weeks...

Touching on the Phillies, their last few days have been baffling. Shuffled around in all the pomp and circumstance of pitchers and catchers reporting is a story from the weekend that suggested the Phillies were attempting to work out a three way trade that would have sent Joe Blanton to the Angels for Bobby Abreu who could be flipped to the Yankees for AJ Burnett. While I'm not sure which party nixed this idea if the Phillies were indeed interested (Burnett apparently has a problem with playing in LA, but I'm guessing the Angels would have liked a little more in return for Abreu anyway), the question remains why were the Phillies barking up this tree in the first place? Presumably, any deal that sent Abreu to the Yankees wouldn't have included a lot of cash in return to offset Burnett's contract (which is what the Yankees ultimately did in sending him to the Pirates), because Abreu is almost equally overpaid. Not only is Joe Blanton about $8M a year cheaper in 2012 than Burnett, the team is free of his contract at the end of the year. Statistically they're almost the exact same player! So what possible reasoning could there be to take on $33M and 2 years of AJ Burnett? Is there really anyone out there that believes that a 2013 with Burnett is an adequate safety net for the potential loss of Cole Hamels in free agency? The guy's career stat lines read like a roller coaster! If that's the case, just offer Blanton arbitration next year as it's very doubtful anyone is knocking on his door with a $16M bag in their hands! Phillies fans really dodged a bullet here because AJ Burnett in red pinstripes would have made for some dreadful summers the next two years.

But Ruben wasn't done panicking about his 2013 staff just yet, as he went ahead instead and signed Kyle Kendrick to a 2 year $7.5M contract on Sunday. While the signing comes with a very reasonable price tag for a #5 starter/long reliever who moves well from the bullpen to the rotation, the timing of the deal makes little sense. First of all, Kendrick's $3.585M arbitration number for this coming season is a hair below the average annual value of the new deal. It's a few pennies different in baseball dollars and it prevents him from seeking arbitration next season, but does anyone expect Kyle Kendrick to have such a year that his arbitration number would significantly jump next year anyway? Looking at recent players of a similar mold over the past few years, I don't see any way his salary could have jumped to more than $5M for 2013 anyway unless he performed at a Roy Halladay like pace. The more likely scenario is that he performs at a very Kyle Kendrick like pace and then the Phillies would have had the option of non-tendering him next year to save a roster spot. I don't mind having a Kendrick type around, but his rights belonged to the Phillies through 2014 anyway, so why make a deal like this when Kendrick is coming off perhaps his best season in the majors and has shown rampant inconsistency in his 4 years?

In happier potential signing news, I was very excited to see multiple reports that linked the Phillies to top Cuban prospect Jorge Soler. While Yoenis Cespedes was the Cuban name on everyone's tounge for most of this offseason, most scouts seem to think that the younger Soler has greater upside and projects as a more balanced player. Personally I'm fascinated by the idea of seeing the Phillies finally land a big name foreign talent. While for every Ichiro, there are a dozen Daisuke Matsusaka's, who require boat loads of cash up front and flame out in a year or two, the prospect of investing in a guy who is only 19 is more appealing to me than signing a player who has already established themselves in a foreign professional league. With Shane Victorino entering free agency and no current long term plan for left field, a five tool outfielder would be a welcome addition to a club that is so dangerously low on top prospects. It's a long shot as the above mentioned Victorino and of course Hamels are still top priorities, but a Cuban stud could be just what the Phillies need to kick off their next renaissance.

And speaking of prospects, Baseball America has released their top 100 prospects rankings entering the 2012 season. Unfortunately you have to scroll all the way down to #69 to find the only Phillies player to make the top 100. What you will see, however, is a lot of familiar names. Of the top 100 for 2012, #34 Jonathan Singleton and #50 Jarred Cosart were used to acquire Hunter Pence, #39 Anthony Gose bought us a year and a half of Roy Oswalt, and #17 Travis d'Arnaud landed Roy Halladay. Prospects are just that, prospects. But the last one in d' Arnaud is really the one that hurts the most. He projects as a pure catcher with both the ability to handle the game and skills with the bat. He could have been groomed nicely by an aging Carlos Ruiz who at 33, doesn't project to have many more years of 130+ games in him like he had last season. This isn't to say that the Phillies farm system is completely devoid of talent. The problem is, much of their higher ceiling players are still in the lower levels of development. That's not a terrible problem to have considering how many players would be blocked by perennial All-Stars anyway. So don't panic just yet when you see so few Phillies on prospect ranking sheets. The Larry Greene's and Lisalberto Bonnilla's of the organization are still a few years away, but show a lot of promise.

Vance Worley or Kyle Kendrick: Who You Got?

It's a question that doesn't hold a lot of merit as we already know that Vance Worley has been named the starting pitcher for Friday night against San Francisco and Kyle Kendrick will be moving to the bullpen, but it's one worth asking ourselves anyway... All things considered equal, who should be the Phillies number five starter tnow that Roy Oswalt is on the brink of return?

The easy answer is Vance Worley. With a 7-1 record, a 2.33 ERA, and WHIP that has hovered around 1.00 all season, Worley has easily been the Phillies biggest surprise of the season. He's outpaced just about every other rookie pitcher in the league and if not for the resurgence of Freddie Freeman, could be a serious contender for some ROY hardware at the end of the season. But is he good or just lucky? Without diving too deep into statistics that most of you (and to some degree, myself) won't understand, let's look at the basics. Worley sports a .207 BA and .249 BAbip right now. Both numbers place him well ahead of top righties in the league like teammate Roy Halladay and Giants opposition this weekend Tim Lincecum. The two have trophy cases full of Cy Young Awards and a history of making batters look foolish. Worley, however, doesn't miss bats at nearly the same rate. The batting average on balls in play in particular is a number that just isn't sustainable. Every advanced metric out there will tell you that Vance Worley has been impressive, but that a good chunk of his success can be credited to the lucky rabbit's foot he keeps in his back pocket. More importantly, the major league numbers just don't compare to his 4 year averages in the minors. K/9 is down, BB/9 is up and yet his "fantasy stats" look as impressive as anyone over the last few weeks.

And then there's Kyle Kendrick, a man who has heard more than his share of whispers wondering why he's still part of this team in the first place. Here's a guy who for three years has been juggled in and out of the rotation and up and down between leagues, all the while taking the ball whenever he is called upon and doing a fairly admirable job. Entering Tuesday night with a 3.52 ERA, Kendrick was already sporting numbers that are third starter territory for most major league teams. Hell, that would have been ace material for the Phillies of a decade ago. So what does he do with what could possibly be his last start of the year and perhaps even his last start in a Phillies uniform? He goes 8 scoreless and strikes out a career high seven batters in a hitter friendly ballpark. In his 10 starts this season, only twice has he given up more than 4 runs. Comparatively, he's given up less than 2 runs six times. In the last month, Kendrick has thrown three quality starts and seen his ERA drop to 3.19 (a number below Oswalts, and only a hair above Cliff Lee!). Yet he's still found himself playing second fiddle to the JA Happs of the world when stretch time comes. Is he the guy who fans 7 against Colorado on August 2nd or the guy who gives up 5 earned in 3 innings against Colorado on May 19th?

When the season started, no one could have guessed that the embarrassment of riches the Phillies had in their starting rotation depth would include the likes of Kendrick or Worley. I don't recall seeing their names printed on any "Aces" t-shirts that were reluctantly including Joe Blanton instead. And yet here we are with the Phillies coasting 7 games ahead of their nearest opponent with one of the top pitchers in the game about to make his return and bump one of two young pitchers from the rotation. Kendrick is the guy who has been in the post season before, who has a history of facing major league talent with moderate success, and who has withstood the pressures of a number of different roles. Worley is the young hurler who plays with an obvious passion, has baffled major league hitters for most of the season, and shows no signs of slowing down. While both guys will eventually find their way into long man roles for the post season, and while we already know the answer the Phillies have chosen to go with... I still ask the question, who you got?

It pains me to say it, but I ride with Kendrick from here on out for many of the reasons I've mentioned above but most importantly because I'm going with a track record of success over the unknown.  Kendrick's gotten himself into and out of as many jams as anyone who's ever put on the uniform, he's proven to be a better starting pitcher than reliever this season, and his last few outings have been just as impressive as anyone elses. Let's not forget that Kyle Kendrick was the 10 win rookie sensation ala Happ and Worley before it was cool. He came in and stole the job from JD Durbin and has given a number of good years to the Phillies fans since then. He'll make you want to pull your hair out most of the time, but in a stretch run, I think it's important to have someone capable of eating innings and keeping the bullpen fresh. Worley is about 25 innings away from a career high for one season and could start wearing down in September. If you need both guys for the playoffs, it makes more sense to me to keep the seasoned arm stretched out and use the young guy in a role that keeps him fresh in the pen. But I'll gladly listen to the opposite take.

I Haven't Ranted About A Loss in a While...

Sweeping is typically a chore that no one wants to do. It's manual labor, it creates dust, and no matter how hard you try, you can never get those last crumbs of dirt that get stuck in the cracks of your kitchen tile. It's really no fun. Which clearly explains why the Phillies recent string of "win two, then lose one" should come as no surprise... They intentionally avoided breaking out the brooms against the Marlins last night.

At least that's the best explanation I have for the series of boneheaded moves and decisions in last night's 6-7 loss in front of about a dozen people in Florida. Where to begin...

• Kyle Kendrick is about as average a #5 pitcher as there is in the league... but even he is capable of going more than 5 innings and 81 pitches. Now, maybe I'd understand this decision if the top of the 6th was a high leverage situation with a couple men in scoring position and the team down a run and you wanted to bring in a pinch hitter that could bring home a run. But the bases had just been cleared by Dom Brown's base running gaffe (more on that later), and John Mayberry Jr's homerun. And they brought in Wilson Valdez who proceeded to fly out for the 1,000th time this week. I'm not even sure Valdez is a better hitter than Kendrick. I might have left Kendrick in to swing for himself, THEN pulled him. We're talking about a guy who was given a 7 inning, 6ER, and 93 pitch leash just last Friday in Toronto, and then he gets pulled after just 1 earned last night. It doesn't make sense. 

• Domonic Brown can't be making mistakes like that on the bases or in the field. Rookie or not, anyone who's been playing baseball long enough to become a professional at it needs to make both of those plays. For a guy who gets called an "athlete" so often, missing 2nd base is unacceptable. While Sarge and TMac tried to convince the viewers that the umpire was in the wrong position and that they think they saw the bag depress a bit, I'll trust the goofy mustached guy that was about 5 feet from the play with his eyes looking directly at the bag. The guy has a reputation for being less than stellar with his calls, but he was right there staring a hole through the bag. He saw it better than any of us did on replay and Dom Brown didn't help his case with his puppy dog face in the dugout or his post game admission of guilt. Arguing about the enforcement of bag touching is for a completely different day, especially since on this particular call they got it right. The botched play in the outfield is equally upsetting.

• How is David Herndon still employed? I think it was meech.one from The Fightins that posted on Twitter yesterday that the 2008 Phillies were the only team in the last decade to win a World Series with a Rule 5 guy on their roster. The Phillies currently have three. These guys flame out for a reason and when you find the incredibly rare diamond in the rough (Shane Victorino), you count your blessings, cash out, and go home. David Herndon is not a major league pitcher. He's had one clean inning since May and it was in 9th inning mop up duty of a 10-2 victory against the Pujols-less Cardinals. Shake any tree around a minor league baseball stadium and a right hander who throws in the mid 90s with his stuff will fall out. Danys Baez can ride off into the sunset too. Since his May 25th 5 inning performance, he's let up 12 ERs and countless inherited runs. If you're scoring at home, that's 2 more than Cole Hamels has given up in nearly 4 times the amount of innings. For christsake, he gave up a HR to Mike Stanton whose power has been MIA for a month due to vision problems that he said just last night still exist. How bad of a pitcher do you have to be to let a guy who can't see hit your ball 400 ft?

Why is Kyle Kendrick STILL on your TV?

Like many of you, I find myself frequently muttering the question "Why is Kyle Kendrick still on this Phillies team?" While the most likely explanation is that he has pictures of Charlie Manuel in a compromising position, probably from a party at Pat Burrell's house in which "The Machine" made an appearance, there may be other reasons...

• Regarding Vance Worley, he may be a better option right now, but conventional baseball wisdom says that it's better to keep a starter of his caliber in the minors for the time being. It's far more valuable for him to be pitching regular innings in Lehigh Valley than seeing sporadic work with the big club. His value to the Phillies is as a starter when needed... be it at some point this season or next. The story is the same with other long man options out of the bullpen (Andrew Carpenter, Eddie Bonie, etc).

• Kendrick's contract this year is worth $2.45M. It's chump change compared to most of the team, but guys making that kind of money are given every opportunity to lose their job.If they send him to the minors, they must still pay him according to the terms of his contract.

• Sending a contracted player down to the minors isn't really that simple either. I'm not even sure I completely understand it, but I'll give it a shot... Kendrick has what I believe qualifies as almost 4 years of major league service time. I believe that means that he can be sent down, but must consent to being sent to the minors. If he declines, he must be kept with the big team or released outright. A player can be sent down once in his career without being subject to player approval, but I believe the Phillies have already used that option with Kendrick. If you want to try to make sense of it yourself, take a look here and here.

• If they were to cut ties with him altogether, they're still on the hook for his salary. I doubt that any other team would be willing to take on his salary by claiming him off waivers (if required, again I still don't fully understand the "options" process). Trading him isn't viable for pretty much the same reason. No one wants to take on $2.45M for a middle reliever.

• I roll my eyes at him as much as you do, but his 38 wins over the past 4+ years is actually pretty decent. It's almost certainly what has kept him employed this long. Geeks like us laugh at his 1.46 K/BB ratio, or his 1.42 WHIP, but those wins mean a whole lot more to management than anything else. He gets the opportunity BECAUSE he has so many wins.

• The Phillies don't throw away money. It took a collapse of epic proportions for them to cut ties with the likes of Adam Eaton and Geoff Jenkins. And they've held on to Danys Baez far longer than he's deserved. The Phillies simply refuse to pay someone to sit at home. 

Why did the Phillies avoid arbitration by signing him to a $2.45M contract for this year is a whole other question...