My Vance Worley Man Crush is in Full Swing

The odds were stacked against a rookie pitcher last night:

• The weather was miserable with a steady and sometimes heavy rain all night.
• The game started nearly two hours late in front of a nearly empty stadium.
• The opponent was a division rival and a playoff contender desperate for a victory.

Still, Vance Worley hit the mound last night and threw 6 solid innings with 2 ERs and 6 Ks using 108 pitches.  And while the ship has already sailed on the NL ROY discussion due in part to a late call up and because of a certain Braves pitcher who has been kept off the field thus far in the series, Vance Worley has already won a little bit of man-love from this blog.

We've grown accustomed to quality young pitching from the back end of our rotation the past few years, but what Worley is putting together is something completely different. As much as some people would like to sit back and say that the team's 14-0 record over his last 14 starts (the best effort by a Phillies pitcher since Steve Carlton led them to victory 15 times in a row in 1972) is a fluke, we've passed the luck stage in these last few weeks. His last three starts, all of which have been victories, have been his second start against his respective opponent. The novelty of facing a new pitcher for the first time has worn off and yet hitters still can't seem to figure him out.

Perhaps the biggest surprise has been Worley's uncanny ability to work himself out of trouble. Last night, with a tight strikezone, his pitch count was getting up there early and home plate umpire Dale Scott didn't seem too eager to let Worley get away with nibbling the corners. In the 1st, he got himself out of a 2 on, 1 out situation with a pair of strikeouts. In the 4th, he got through 2 on, no out with a pair of Ks and a soft grounder. In the 6th, he got through the bases loaded with no outs by only letting up one run. That kind of composure on the mound isn't something you learn on the job as Worley is doing.

But Vance Worley has an uncanny ability to freeze batters with called strikes. In fact, 34% of all strikes that Worley throws are of the uncontested variety and a whopping 52% of his strikeouts are called looking! To put it into perspective, the league average is 24% and the Phillies as a whole hold the highest average in baseball at a fraction over 30%.

He does it all with an odd mix of sinkers, sliders, cutters, and a changeup that don't have exceptional speed or movement, but get the job done. He's effectively wild at times, often finding himself in the 100 pitch neighborhood by the 6th inning, but again he gets the job done. But despite not having the greatest of BB rates, his .277 BABiP suggests that he's no longer just "lucky" as we assumed early in the season and he probably falls closer to the league average than you might think.

And he does it all after a routine of going to bed at 4AM the night before a game, napping until about 4:30pm the day of, ignoring the video tape and pregame prep, and just taking the mound to throw the baseball however Brian Schneider tells him to. He's the Anti-Roy Halladay with swagger and charisma to spare. On a team full of consummate professionals who have honed their craft for years with endless bullpen sessions, tireless video study, and rigorous game day preparation, it's refreshing to see a kid who tucks his mohawk into his hat, puts on his glasses and goes out there every 5th day just as strong as the other four.

Vance Worley Won't Win ROY, But Should He?

While baseball pundits may be calling this year "The Year of the Rookie," it seems to me like all of those rookies are in the American League. Eric Hosmer, Dustin Ackley, Mark Trumbo, Ivan Nova, Jordan Walden, Jeremy Hellickson, etc... The AL ROY race is destined to be a good one and it would not surprise me if more than a few Hall of Famers come out of this class. Not so much with the NL. The odds on favorite at the outset of the season seemed to be Giants 1st Baseman Brandon Belt, but after disappointment and injury, he's all but dropped off the radar. As have a lot of other potential NL candidates. The good news for Vance Worley is that there are only three serious contenders for the NL ROY award this season. The bad news is that he's probably still third on that list. With a 9-1 record and a streak in which the Phillies have won each of his last 12 starts, Worley really couldn't be doing much more to get himself into contention. He's pitched well in both the minors and majors this year, often on odd days rest and in a multitude of situations. But he falls behind the Braves duo for a couple of reasons.

First of all, his cumulative stats just aren't there. Since 2000, only three starting pitchers have won the ROY award in either league. The worst collective season among those pitchers was Dontrelle Willis' 14-6 record with 142 Ks and a 3.30 ERA in 160.2 innings in 2003 for the Marlins. If everything goes perfectly and each starter throws on a regualr schedule for the remainder of the season, Worley will get 5 more starts. The best record he could accumulate would be 14-1. That might do it, but at 98 IP right now, I think he'd have to mix in a couple of complete games to accumulate the innings and more importantly strikeouts to get in the right ballpark. On the season, Worley is averaging just under 6IP/start, but assuming he's as lights out the rest of the way as he's been for the past few months, the best he can really hope for is 33 more IP and maybe 28 more strikeouts. So being optimistic, let's project Worley at 13-2, 2.65 ERA, 131IP, and 111 strikeouts. While the ERA is impressive, the rest of the stats rank well below the other three ROY winners (Willis, Justin Verlander, and Jason Jennings). 

Looking for a more accurate comparison? Look no further than the Phillies of the last few years. Kyle Kendrick finished 5th in 2007 voting with a 3.87 ERA, 49Ks, a 10-4 record and 121 IP. JA Happ finished 2nd in 2009 voting with a 2.93 ERA, 119 Ks, a 12-4 record and 166 IP. Worley will likely fall somewhere in between.

But with a weak crop of rookies in the NL, those numbers are almost enough to get the job done. Almost. Enter, Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman and closer Craig Kimbrel. Freeman has rebounded from a tough start to the season by putting up a line that currently sits at .291BA/18HR/63RBI. He fell right into the Braves every day first base role and at times, held the offense all by himself while Dan Uggla and Jason Heyward struggled, and Chipper Jones and Brian McCann spent time on the DL. His rookie numbers are on pace to eclipse Ryan Howard's of 2005 to put it into perspective.

But even Freddie Freeman pales in comparison to Craig Kimbrel. Just how good is Kimbrel this year? Take a look at what MLB Dirt has to say:

"Kimbrel has appeared in 65 games and logged just 63.2 innings, or less than one inning per outing, something I hate. But what he has done in those 63.2 innings is nothing short of historic. He has already eclipsed 100 strikeouts and has a K/9 rate of 14.56 which stands as a record for rookies with at least 60 innings of work and ranks 6th all-time among any pitcher with at least 60 innings of work in a season and is one of only 8 pitchers to accomplish this feat. Billy Wagner is the only one to accomplish it more than once and he did it three times.
What is even more remarkable is that he also has a 1.70 ERA and 1.21 FIP and has allowed only one homerun. Only two other pitchers have had a K/9 greater than 14.0 and an ERA lower than Kimbrel’s 1.70. Eric Gagne is one, and he won a Cy Young award, and Billy Wagner is the other and finished 4th in Cy Young award voting."

But if we look at comparable recent ROY winners the same way we did for Vance Worley, the contest isn't even close. Since 2000, there have been three other closers who have won ROY honors (all in the AL: Kaz Sasaki, Andrew Bailey, and Neftali Feliz). Kimbrel has already converted more saves than any of them (tied at 40 with Feliz), K'd more batters than any of them (103 to Bailey's 91), and is on pace to throw more innings with a lower ERA than any of them. Kimbrel benefits from the fact that he won the starting job out of Spring Training and the fact that his setup man Jonny Venters is probably the best in the business right now. He's a pedigree pitcher who was bred for this role.

Worley is a nice little story of a pretty decent minor leaguer who wasn't on anyone's radar or prospect lists, got the call with some real big shoes to fill, and filled those shoes admirably. He won't win NL ROY, but he's been invaluable to the Phillies this year.

Vance Worley or Kyle Kendrick: Who You Got?

It's a question that doesn't hold a lot of merit as we already know that Vance Worley has been named the starting pitcher for Friday night against San Francisco and Kyle Kendrick will be moving to the bullpen, but it's one worth asking ourselves anyway... All things considered equal, who should be the Phillies number five starter tnow that Roy Oswalt is on the brink of return?

The easy answer is Vance Worley. With a 7-1 record, a 2.33 ERA, and WHIP that has hovered around 1.00 all season, Worley has easily been the Phillies biggest surprise of the season. He's outpaced just about every other rookie pitcher in the league and if not for the resurgence of Freddie Freeman, could be a serious contender for some ROY hardware at the end of the season. But is he good or just lucky? Without diving too deep into statistics that most of you (and to some degree, myself) won't understand, let's look at the basics. Worley sports a .207 BA and .249 BAbip right now. Both numbers place him well ahead of top righties in the league like teammate Roy Halladay and Giants opposition this weekend Tim Lincecum. The two have trophy cases full of Cy Young Awards and a history of making batters look foolish. Worley, however, doesn't miss bats at nearly the same rate. The batting average on balls in play in particular is a number that just isn't sustainable. Every advanced metric out there will tell you that Vance Worley has been impressive, but that a good chunk of his success can be credited to the lucky rabbit's foot he keeps in his back pocket. More importantly, the major league numbers just don't compare to his 4 year averages in the minors. K/9 is down, BB/9 is up and yet his "fantasy stats" look as impressive as anyone over the last few weeks.

And then there's Kyle Kendrick, a man who has heard more than his share of whispers wondering why he's still part of this team in the first place. Here's a guy who for three years has been juggled in and out of the rotation and up and down between leagues, all the while taking the ball whenever he is called upon and doing a fairly admirable job. Entering Tuesday night with a 3.52 ERA, Kendrick was already sporting numbers that are third starter territory for most major league teams. Hell, that would have been ace material for the Phillies of a decade ago. So what does he do with what could possibly be his last start of the year and perhaps even his last start in a Phillies uniform? He goes 8 scoreless and strikes out a career high seven batters in a hitter friendly ballpark. In his 10 starts this season, only twice has he given up more than 4 runs. Comparatively, he's given up less than 2 runs six times. In the last month, Kendrick has thrown three quality starts and seen his ERA drop to 3.19 (a number below Oswalts, and only a hair above Cliff Lee!). Yet he's still found himself playing second fiddle to the JA Happs of the world when stretch time comes. Is he the guy who fans 7 against Colorado on August 2nd or the guy who gives up 5 earned in 3 innings against Colorado on May 19th?

When the season started, no one could have guessed that the embarrassment of riches the Phillies had in their starting rotation depth would include the likes of Kendrick or Worley. I don't recall seeing their names printed on any "Aces" t-shirts that were reluctantly including Joe Blanton instead. And yet here we are with the Phillies coasting 7 games ahead of their nearest opponent with one of the top pitchers in the game about to make his return and bump one of two young pitchers from the rotation. Kendrick is the guy who has been in the post season before, who has a history of facing major league talent with moderate success, and who has withstood the pressures of a number of different roles. Worley is the young hurler who plays with an obvious passion, has baffled major league hitters for most of the season, and shows no signs of slowing down. While both guys will eventually find their way into long man roles for the post season, and while we already know the answer the Phillies have chosen to go with... I still ask the question, who you got?

It pains me to say it, but I ride with Kendrick from here on out for many of the reasons I've mentioned above but most importantly because I'm going with a track record of success over the unknown.  Kendrick's gotten himself into and out of as many jams as anyone who's ever put on the uniform, he's proven to be a better starting pitcher than reliever this season, and his last few outings have been just as impressive as anyone elses. Let's not forget that Kyle Kendrick was the 10 win rookie sensation ala Happ and Worley before it was cool. He came in and stole the job from JD Durbin and has given a number of good years to the Phillies fans since then. He'll make you want to pull your hair out most of the time, but in a stretch run, I think it's important to have someone capable of eating innings and keeping the bullpen fresh. Worley is about 25 innings away from a career high for one season and could start wearing down in September. If you need both guys for the playoffs, it makes more sense to me to keep the seasoned arm stretched out and use the young guy in a role that keeps him fresh in the pen. But I'll gladly listen to the opposite take.

Why is Kyle Kendrick STILL on your TV?

Like many of you, I find myself frequently muttering the question "Why is Kyle Kendrick still on this Phillies team?" While the most likely explanation is that he has pictures of Charlie Manuel in a compromising position, probably from a party at Pat Burrell's house in which "The Machine" made an appearance, there may be other reasons...

• Regarding Vance Worley, he may be a better option right now, but conventional baseball wisdom says that it's better to keep a starter of his caliber in the minors for the time being. It's far more valuable for him to be pitching regular innings in Lehigh Valley than seeing sporadic work with the big club. His value to the Phillies is as a starter when needed... be it at some point this season or next. The story is the same with other long man options out of the bullpen (Andrew Carpenter, Eddie Bonie, etc).

• Kendrick's contract this year is worth $2.45M. It's chump change compared to most of the team, but guys making that kind of money are given every opportunity to lose their job.If they send him to the minors, they must still pay him according to the terms of his contract.

• Sending a contracted player down to the minors isn't really that simple either. I'm not even sure I completely understand it, but I'll give it a shot... Kendrick has what I believe qualifies as almost 4 years of major league service time. I believe that means that he can be sent down, but must consent to being sent to the minors. If he declines, he must be kept with the big team or released outright. A player can be sent down once in his career without being subject to player approval, but I believe the Phillies have already used that option with Kendrick. If you want to try to make sense of it yourself, take a look here and here.

• If they were to cut ties with him altogether, they're still on the hook for his salary. I doubt that any other team would be willing to take on his salary by claiming him off waivers (if required, again I still don't fully understand the "options" process). Trading him isn't viable for pretty much the same reason. No one wants to take on $2.45M for a middle reliever.

• I roll my eyes at him as much as you do, but his 38 wins over the past 4+ years is actually pretty decent. It's almost certainly what has kept him employed this long. Geeks like us laugh at his 1.46 K/BB ratio, or his 1.42 WHIP, but those wins mean a whole lot more to management than anything else. He gets the opportunity BECAUSE he has so many wins.

• The Phillies don't throw away money. It took a collapse of epic proportions for them to cut ties with the likes of Adam Eaton and Geoff Jenkins. And they've held on to Danys Baez far longer than he's deserved. The Phillies simply refuse to pay someone to sit at home. 

Why did the Phillies avoid arbitration by signing him to a $2.45M contract for this year is a whole other question...

Bet You Wish You Had Vance Worley Now....

It seems like pretty simple math... You bring back Roy Oswalt from the DL knowing full well that his first start or two is going to be limited. Five to Six innings is really a best case scenario. So who do you send down to make room for him? The best long relief option you have in Vance Worley. As I write this, the Phillies Post Game folks are echoing the same sentiment.

Michael Stutes looked great in the spring has shown flashes of brilliance so far this season, but his skill set as a future major league pitcher is as a one inning type of guy. Vance Worley is the guy you need right now to kill multiple innings. Kyle Kendrick simply cannot be your only option for multiple innings out of the bullpen. When two fifths of your starting rotation is battling through injuries, you HAVE to maintain a bullpen that can get you multiple innings on multiple nights. ESPECIALLY when you're in the midst of a 20 games in 20 days stretch. It's really fundamental.

And don't get me started on the Lance Berkman play at the plate. Berkman, who moves with the speed of a glacier, was sent home on what should have been an easy play at the plate. John Mayberry Jr. makes a reasonable, but not perfect throw to the plate. Dane Sardinha makes an absolutely terrible attempt at a tag, reaching out with the kind of effort that would earn you a seat on the bench on my slowpitch softball team.

As big of a crapfest as that game was, without that run, the Phils are up a run in the 9th inning, Martinez is playing deeper, and that Berkman fly ball ties it up with runners on 1st and third with a very good shot at extra innings... then again, Romero probably would have just served up another 1st pitch volleyball.

Ugh. Frustrating loss.

The Worley-Bird!

Get it? Because those things on your roof are called whirleybirds and Vance Worley pitched for the Phillies last night? Yeah, I agree... not as funny as it first sounded in my head.

But Vance Worley did get the job done last night and that's what really matters. In fact, he was riding a 21 inning scoreless streak until a few borderline ball/strike calls let him to give up a run. Not a bad start for a career, but I wouldn't get used to it. The fact remains that while Vance Worley is looking like a stud right now, the minute Joe Blanton is healthy, Worley will be back down in the minors. He's 23 years old with plenty of time left to develop and the best opportunity for regular action will be in the minors. With 3 or our 4 starters throwing complete games pretty much whenever they feel like it, some of our bullpen arms are already under-worked. Kyle Kendrick only pitches once a week and Dany Baez has thankfully been left to ride the pine pretty often. Worley will continue to be your #1 "In Case of Emergency, Call Reading" guy for the better part of the season.

Also, in case you hadn't noticed, Raul did exactly what I said he would... fail at becoming the world worst slumper. Naturally, that's a good thing for the Phillies and it's nice to see some semblance of power from the $12M man in left field. It also gives Ruben and Charlie some piece of mind knowing that they can let Domonic Brown get daily at bats in the minors for a few more weeks before pressing the panic button.