Award Season Is Upon Us

As a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, I am duty bound to provide my own take on the post season awards. Rather than go with my knee jerk reactions at the end of the season, I've taken a few days to let things sink in and analyze the first few games of the post season before coming to the following conclusions... hey man, my vote isn't an official part of the BBWAA so I can use whatever criteria I want!

The Connie Mack Top Manager Award:
1. Kirk Gibson
2. Joe Maddon
3. Jim Leyland

It may be the trendy choice, but leading a team that nearly lost 100 games the year before to the playoffs is a pretty phenomenal feat. There were some cornerstones in place, but the Diamondbacks were largely a team consisting of an under performing Justin Upton, a couple of pitchers with potential, and a bunch of role players coming into the year. But Gibson got a career best season from Upton, a fantastic performance from his pitching staff, and a lot of key contributions from both veterans (Miguel Montero) and rookies (Paul Goldschmidt) alike. Maddon deserves a ton of credit for losing his 7 highest paid players in the offseason and still finding his way into the playoffs, but his offense still sported more talented names than Gibson's. Leyland had his fair share of diversity as well (another Miguel Cabrera DUI), but again, his team's performance isn't as much of a surprise.

The Willie Mays Top Rookie Award:

1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Eric Hosmer
3. Freddie Freeman

Easy choice here as Kimbrel was nearly unhittable for 5 1/2 months this season. I pegged him high in my fantasy drafts because I thought the Braves would win a lot of games, but with that stuff, he's a top notch closer regardless of what team he plays for. 2nd and 3rd place is a bit of a toss-up. Both of these guys are the next wave of power hitting 1st baseman, and both found themselves in a situation more pressure filled than any 21-22 yr old should have to deal with in the majors. In the end, their counting stats were very similar, but I give Hosmer the nod because I think his SB totals will increase and he's the closest thing to a 5 tool player at 1st base we've seen in the majors in a long time.

The Goose Gossage Top Reliever Award:

1. Craig Kimbrel
2. John Axford
3. Mariano Rivera

Saves are a statistic that I will never fully understand the importance of, so instead of going with the guy who was 49 for 49 in Jose Valverde, I find myself asking the question "who do you want to close for your team?" That guy is Craig Kimbrel. He blew 5 saves and the end to his season was a bit shaky, but he was arguably overused and out of gas as the season wound down. But if every closer in baseball was available and fully rested for Game 7 of the World Series and my team was nursing a 1 run lead, I want the guy with the best stuff and right now, Kimbrel would be my man. Axford had a rough start, but was dominant the rest of the way, but would still play 2nd fiddle on my team. Mariano Rivera gets my third vote because his name alone strikes enough fear in his opponents eyes that he can get the job done, even if his stuff isn't as good as it used to be.

The Walter Johnson Top Pitcher Award:

1. Justin Verlander
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Roy Halladay
4. Cliff Lee
5. Jered Weaver

I don't see any other way to list this one. When was the last time the Pitching Triple Crown was won in both leagues? 1924. Justin Verlander takes the cake as the best pitcher in baseball this year and everyone else is a distant second. At one point, the Tigers were headed to the playoffs as a .500 team in games in which Verlander didn't pitch. And as much as I want to be a homer, Clayton Kershaw had the better season than Roy Halladay. You can try to justify Halladay having the better season by using walk rates and obscure SABR stats, but I'm just not seeing it. 4th and 5th are tight, but distant from the rest of the pack. I give the nod to Cliff Lee for his month long stretches of domination and his turnaround from a rough start to the season.

The Stan Musial Top Player Award:

1. Matt Kemp
2. Ryan Braun
3. Jacoby Ellsbury
4. Curtis Granderson
5. Jose Bautista
6. Justin Upton
7. Adrian Gonzalez
8. Justin Verlander
9. Prince Fielder
10. Roy Halladay

I love quality pitching, but I just don't give the same merit to pitchers that I do to position players. While Verlander may win the MVP award, I need to see a full range of skills from the guy I'm voting as the top player. If Verlander his a few HRs and won a Gold Glove, it's all his! Matt Kemp is the most complete player in the game right now and probably the only guy in baseball capable of chasing down the elusive Batting Triple Crown. And he does it with Gold Glove caliber defense and the ability to steal 30 bags a year. And he does it on a dreadful team. The rest of the guys at the top of this list compile their numbers with a great supporting cast, Kemp does it on his own. While the rest of the guys on the list can do 3 or 4 of the things Matt Kemp can, he's the best 5 tool player in the game and probably the best of my generation not named Barry Bonds.

Lunch Time Link Dump

• I love reading these crazy old stories of fantasy baseball origins and history. Can you imagine a day before the internet when the only way to get inside information was to make your own drive to spring training every year, subscribe to weekly baseball publications, or to actually pay off an agent or trainer for some tips? This story of a guy who became obsessed with fantasy baseball to a point where he claims it ruined his life is a good one.

• The ending to the Manny Ramirez saga sure proved to be a good one. After making a mockery of himself for the better part of the last three years, Manny retired after hearing that he had failed another MLB drug test and was looking at a 100 game suspension. His women's fertility drug of choice is well known as a masking agent that makes other performance enhancers difficult to detect. So it's not a matter of "if" but "what" was Manny really on these last few years. Of all the players to come through the "steroid era" of baseball, Manny's case for the Hall of Fame is going to be the most controversial. He was an amazing pure hitter, but the questions of laziness, selfishness, and now drug use are going to cast a major shadow on his career. Of the entire generation of ball players I grew up watching, it's sad to think that only three hitters (Griffey, Thomas, and Thome) are regarded as "clean."

• Big autograph session this Saturday at King of Prussia Mall. Too bad everything is comically overpriced. I've seen all of these guys signing for a fraction of the numbers listed here. Plus, I'll be busy doing a 5 mile run in Valley Forge. 

• Hunt Auctions has an impressive collection of merchandise available for auction this week. Most impressive is the group of lots from Robin Roberts personal collection. I'd say that Robin Roberts induction ring from the Hall of Fame is about as unique an item as any Phillies fan could own.

• ZooWithRoy.com (great site) collaborated with @DangerGuerrero of FilmDrunk & WarmingGlow fame (also great sites) to produce a rather epic and likely accurate portrayal of the Mets 2011 Video Yearbook. 

• A nice little video of a fan getting pummeled at a Pirates game over the weekend. I'm not sure why this hasn't gotten much exposure. Clearly being Patriotic is frowned upon in Pittsburgh.

• Beyond the Box Score did an interesting series of articles in the past two weeks about retired numbers. It's funny how through the first 70 years of the decade there were only a handful and now numbers are being retired like it's going out of style. It's also interesting to see how the standard for number retirement has gone down. Could Bobby Abreu really be the next Phillies number retired? 

• An incredibly early and overzealous look at the MVP races in each league. Despite being only 11 days into the season, you still see a lot of familiar faces on the list. It really doesn't take long for the cream to rise to the top. 

The Prediction Post

So that we can all sit back and laugh about how ridiculously off-base I was when the season started, I've decided to put my wild predictions for the 2011 season in print. For argument's sake, I'm going to try to avoid some of the more obvious picks...

AL MVP - Mark Teixeira
I made the same prediction last year, though I didn't have a blog to share with the world. But the fact of the matter is that year after year he's an absolute monster in the 2nd half of the season and has been for years. I'm hedging my bets and saying that he manages a "decent" first few months and rolls on to the best season of his career. The popular pick this year in the AL is Adrian Gonzalez, but I think that shoulder injury is going to play a bigger role than a lot of other people think.

NL MVP - Carlos Gonzalez
All the talk this offseason has been about Troy Tulowitzki and while he had a tremendous final 6 weeks of the regular season, he wasn't even the best player on his own team. That title goes to Gonzalez. Cargo is the rare 30-30 potential guy with power to all fields who hits for average and plays Gold Glove caliber defense. He was arguably the best 5 tool player in the game right now and I think if he comes close to a repeat performance and his Rockies stay in the playoff hunt, he'll be looking at an MVP trophy come seasons end.

AL Cy Young - Jon Lester
There are a handful of guys who could win this award, but none of the others play for the Red Sox. The fact remains that voters love the W column and Lester is going to get a bunch of them playing behind the Boston offense. If he keeps his K's up in the 200s and can sneak his ERA into the low 3's, 21 wins should be well within his grasp.

NL Cy Young - Roy Halladay
This one is the easy pick after seeing his nearest competition go down in the spring in Adam Wainwright. But the fact of the matter is I've been calling Roy Halladay the best pitcher in baseball since like 2005. He's a horse and he almost always exceed expectations. I'd go as far as to suggest that his stat line even improves from last season.

AL Rookie of the Year - Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Ichiro-Light is how I would classify him. He has that same slap and run style of play that many Japanese ball players have and he rode it to a batting title last season. His nearest competition for the ROY might be Jeremy Hellickson and Kyle Drabek (Only two rookies in an AL starting rotation), but both of them will go through some growing pains. Nishioka has the benefit of having played high level professional ball for a few years and should burst right onto the scene.

NL Rookie of the Year - Brandon Belt
Admittedly, I don't know a ton about this guy. But he won the Giants starting first base job out of camp and he's a huge prospect for them. His nearest competition seems to be Freddie Freeman of ATL and Aroldis Chapman from the Reds. Chapman will be a setup man and I don't care how hard he throws, you can't give the award to a setup guy. Freeman seems to be of the same mold as Belt so I'm really just taking the Giants first baseman on a hunch.

AL Comeback Player - Manny Ramirez
The MLB Network 30 Clubs in 30 Days special with the Rays gave me a real good feeling about Manny. He seems to be rejuvenated and looking to prove himself the same way he had to when he went to LA. It's a shot in the dark, but I think he has one more year of 25 HRs and 95 RBI left in him.

NL Comeback Player - Jimmy Rollins
It's starting to seem doubtful that he starts the season as the Phillies leadoff hitter. While that might sound like a demotion to some people, his role in the #3 spot is going to be far more valuable. He won't go 30-30-30 again, but he'll push the BA numbers back a little closer to elite SS level. The fact that he's in a contract year should motivate him to lay off a few more 1st pitch breaking balls and hone his skills for one more contract at age 32.

AL Disappointment - Jose Bautista
The homeruns may not have been a total fluke, but pitchers will be wise to him this year. Every prediction I've seen still puts him in the 35-100-100 class and I don't think he's going to reach any of those milestones this year.

NL Disappointment - Prince Fielder
I've often seen him as an all or nothing kind of guy, even though he hasn't really played that way. Well this year I think he will. You just can't carry a frame like a beach-ball and be a good first baseman for very long. Look for a Mo Vaughn-esque decline any day now.

Hitters to watch:
Gordon Beckham - huge bounce back from sophomore slump.
Shin-Soo Choo - My love affair with him is well documented. 20-20-.290 AVG is a lock.
Jay Bruce - Finally becoming the player he was supposed to be.
Billy Butler - This is the year the power finally matches the plate discipline.
Jed Lowrie - Marco Scutaro is one stubbed toe away from being a utility infielder again.

Pitchers to watch:
Erik Bedard - don't call it a comeback!
Brandon Beachy - has the 2nd highest ceiling of the Braves starting 5.
Brian Matusz - a year older and a much better lineup behind him.
Gio Gonzalez - said to have the best stuff in the A's rotation
Daniel Hudson - His stretch run in 2010 was no fluke

AL East:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. NY Yankees
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Tampa Bay Rays

AL West:
1. Texas Rangers
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Los Angeles Angels
4. Seattle Mariners

AL Central:
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians

NL East:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Florida Marlins
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets

NL West:
1. Colorodo Rockies
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. San Diego Padres
5. Arizona Diamondbacks

NL Central:
1. St Louis Cardinals
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Houston Astros
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Chicago Cubs

Wild Card Round:
Red Sox over Twins
Yankees over Rangers
Phillies over Cardinals
Braves over Rockies

Championship Series:
Red Sox over Yankees in7
Phillies over Braves in 5

World Series:
Red Sox over Phillies in 6