BBA and My First Mock Draft of the Year

Ahh, the Winter Meetings are a distant memory and spring training is a mere 90 days (give or take) away! You can almost smell the baseball in the air...

The past 10 days or so, a group of Fantasy Baseball bloggers and myself took part in a slow crawl of a mock draft to get the ball rolling on early discussions and predictions (full chat transcript here if you're actually interested in reading). Our group consisted of 14 teams from the Baseball Bloggers Alliance drafting in a 14 team mixed league with no bench but a utility spot and a pair of general pitchers. Needless to say, the competition was a bit more stiff than your standard mom & pop fantasy league, but all in all I think I held my own quite well.

C - Wilson Ramos
1B - Miguel Cabrera
2B - Howie Kendrick
SS - Jhonny Peralta
3B - Ryan Zimmerman
OF - Ryan Braun
OF - Matt Holliday
OF - Melky Cabrera
UT - Emilio Bonifacio

SP - Josh Johnson
SP - Adam Wainwright
SP - Ervin Santana
RP - Mariano Rivera
RP - Ryan Madson
P - Ivan Nova
P - Vance Worley

In the end, I probably took a few more injury/youth/PED risks than I ever would in a real draft, but I would be willing to march into battle with this lineup any day of the week. I've always prided myself in my ability to supplement my draft mistakes with the picking up of rising talent off the waiver wire (see Matt Joyce and Mike Morse last season). I have the upside of having the MVP of both leagues and a Cy Young winner on my team and I've mixed in a few "safe" guys to hedge my bets on.

For FULL analysis on the draft, check out BleacherGM over the next week or so for their round by round take on which teams look the best, which positions are looking shallow, and where some good value can be found for the 2012 season! Special thanks to all of the guys I drafted along with for the invite and the good conversation!

Below you'll find my take on each of the guys I selected:

Round 1 #6 Overall – Miguel Cabrera, 1B

Tough one here as my gut was telling me to look at a 5 tool guy, but i promised myself that this year aside from Pujols, Miguel Cabrera would be the only other 1st Baseman that I would reach for in the first round. I don't think anyone else in baseball is such a lock for 30+ HRs, 100+ RBI, contends for a batting title and above all stays healthy. Where you can argue against small sample sizes, increasing age, or declining health for a lot of hitters of the Cabrera mold, this guy's production is as consistent as it comes and the numbers are a sure thing.

Round 2, #23 Overall - Ryan Braun, OF
He tested positive for WHAT? @*#&$*^#
Actually, this was a calculated risk that in a real draft could either blow up in my face or make for a hell of a late season charge. The way my twisted mind works, 2/3 of a season of Braun is going to produce better in 5 categories than a full season of about 75% of the outfielders out there. Based on last season alone (which I feel is fair, though maybe a bit inflated), 75 RBI, 22 HR, 22SB, 75 R can be had in just 400 PAs. If this were a real league with a mock bench, I'd look to supplement that pick by riding the wave of hot, undrafted outfielders like Matt Joyce and Jeff Francoeur were for the first half last year. I think I could still get 30/30 and 100/100 potential from a .300+ hitter.

Round 3, #34 Overall – Matt Holliday, OF

This was a safe, no brainer type of pick for me that ensures I still have an elite outfielder on my team while Braun is “resting.” The defending World Champion Cardinals will still have the opportunity to score a lot of runs next year and Matt Holliday will no longer play second fiddle to scoring opportunities. He’s come out against the notion that he’s an “injury prone” guy and I tend to agree. Since when does having an appendectomy and coming back 9 days later make you injury prone? I envision a return to 100/100 numbers.

Round 4, #50 Overall – Ryan Zimmerman, 3B

I was drafting him as high as round 2 last year as the 2^nd best 3B in the game behind Longoria and despite the injuries, I think he’s still that good when healthy. With all of the pitchers I’d consider top tier having already dropped off the board, I wanted to optimize my corner infield before reaching for a starter or focusing on guys who produce big in just one or two categories.

Round 5, #62 Overall – Josh Johnson, SP

I always wait on pitching, but it’s really thinning out at this point. I like Ian Kennedy, but I don’t think he can repeat his performance from last year. Instead, I’m banking on a Josh Johnson with 2010 stuff in a 2012 Marlins lineup here. When he’s healthy, he’s unhittable. His start to 2011 was amazing, and by the end of the year he was said to be performing very well against live hitting. I’ll take a risk for a top 5 pitcher at #62. 

Round 6, # 79 Overall – Adam Wainwright, SP

I decided to bolster my staff of Tommy John guys by drafting Wainwright here. My reasoning is much the same as why I picked Johnson;  top 5 potential from a guy I can get for dirt cheap. Obviously I’m taking a risk with these two, but considering how much it free’d me up to avoid pitchers early in the draft, I think it’s one worth taking.

Round 7, #90 Overall – Jhonny Peralta, SS

I have plenty of power on the corners and the OF so I wanted to reach for a middle infielder that wouldn’t necessarily hurt me here. Peralta had a bit of a late blooming breakout year in 2011, but I followed him pretty closely and I think he’s mostly legit. He won’t hurt me and if he can duplicate 2011 it will be a nice little bonus. SS drops off severely after him.

Round 8, #107 Overall – Mariano Rivera, RP

No one is more reliable than this guy at his position. The first few closers have gone off the board and I always like to position myself with an established closer who doesn’t have an injury history. Mo still has at least one more of those years left in the tank.

Round 9, #118 Overall – Howie Kendrick, 2B

My top choice went the pick before me with FS Dirt taking Dustin Ackley, but I knew I had to stick with 2B here because the position gets pretty scary after Howie Kendrick. Again, I’ve ended up with a middle infielder that won’t really hurt me. Having Pujols in that lineup can only help Kendrick.

Round 10, #135 Overall – Melky Cabrera, OF

I wanted to round out my OF with a guy that can steal me some bases without giving up much in the way of power. I’m hoping that Melky can come close to what he did in 2011, despite being on a bad offensive team in San Francisco. He’s seemed to transform his hitting style over the last two years so I’m going to roll the dice that this guy is indeed for real.

Round 11, #146 Overall – Ryan Madson, RP

I hate drafting guys without knowing what their role will be on a team, but I find it hard to believe that Ryan Madson won’t get a closers job somewhere. With Boston as a potential suitor, I like the opportunities even more. A big run of closers just went by so I wanted to get my 2^nd one before I was left looking at the scrap heap. Rivera and Madson… I’m happy.

Round 12, #163 Overall – Ervin Santana, SP

Ervin Santana will rack up wins for me just by being one of the best #4 pitchers in the game. But he’s not half bad either. Last season he posted some of the best numbers of his career but just couldn’t muster the W’s. I’m not expecting miracles, but I like him as a solid #3 starter who won’t really hurt me anywhere. 

Round 13, #174 Overall – Emilio Bonifacio, UT

Unless the Marlins make another big splash this off season, Bonifacio will have himself an everyday job next year. After last season, he’s certainly earned it. I needed some SB’s here and 150 games of Bonifacio in the #2 hole behind Reyes could get me 30+. I also like having a guy with multi position eligibility because it adds a layer of flexibility when the inevitable injury strikes.

Round 14, #191 Overall – Ivan Nova, SP

I had a handful of pitchers queue’d up in this spot, but I wound up pulling one from the bottom of my list. I chose Nova because of his impressive end to the season and the likelihood that his IPs could creep close to 200 in 2012. Barring some miracle trade or signing, Nova will still slot as a #3 starter.

Round 15, #202 Overall – Wilson Ramos, C

Nothing toughens up a young player like getting kidnapped in Venezuela. If he can survive that, surely he can log 135 or so games behind the plate. I liked his power potential last season and it seems as though he has the everyday job for the Nationals in 2012. Since I waited this long for a catcher, there aren’t a whole lot of other guys who will see enough playing time while contributing in the counting stats. I’m hoping for a breakout year with this pick.

Round 16, #219 Overall – Vance Worley, SP

Last round, so I have to go with a homer pick here. And I’m fortunate, because I was targeting Worley 2 rounds earlier when I picked Nova. The Phillies have had a history of bringing around young pitchers who show a year of success and follow it up with a dud, but IMO none of them showed the potential of Vance Worley. I had the pleasure of watching most of his starts and I can assure you the guy just makes people miss. He throws a lot of pitches which means he’ll need to work on control to throw a lot of innings, but in the Phillies lineup, a #4 pitcher can easily win 15 games.

Catching Up for December

DroppedStrikeThree is not dead! I'm just taking it slow this offseason. If you were expecting knee jerk commentary to every piddly signing the Phillies make, then I'm sorry but you've been reading the wrong blog! If you insist, I'll summarize my thoughts on the Phillies hot stove as follows:

• Jim Thome - cheap bench bat
• Ty Wigginton - plays everywhere and our team gets injured everywhere
• Laynce Nix - Ben Francisco with different color skin
• Jonathan Papelbon - best closer available, but paid a bit too much
• Michael Cuddyer - not worth what he's looking for
• Jimmy Rollins - time to move on, even a 3 year deal blocks Galvis
• Cole Hamels - pay this man
• Dontrelle Willis - great value as LOOGY
• Aramis Ramirez - we blew this one, total steal at 3/$36
• Ryan Madson - Scott Boras strikes again

But I digress... The fact of the matter is, I won't rush to judgement until I at least see a few batting cage swings during Spring Training. In the mean time, I give you another round of links to tide you over:

• Someone who DOES chronicle the Phillies every move in a much more refined writing style than you'll ever find on my blog is Tim over at "Dawn in Philadelphia." It reads more like a chapter book than a blog, but it's incredibly well done. Bookmark this one because if the Phils go on to win a World Series in 2012, this will become the kind of bedtime reading you can whisper to your grandchildren. 

• Today is the last day to get your vote in for the final player on the Phillies mural that will face the Schuylkill River at 24th and Walnut. Personally, I think they went a little heavy with new players so I voted for Del Ennis. His career in a Phillies uniform was just as impressive as the rest, but he has local roots.

• About a dozen Philadelphia and national sports writers will be in the area tonight signing various books. Pick up some new bathroom reading material for dad!

• Speaking of books... best friend of the Phillie Phanatic and author of his adventures, Tom Burgoyne, must be making a killing off the sale of Phanatic related reading material. The latest installment shows the Phanatic making a trip back to the Galapagos Islands where he learns it's okay to be different. I'm sure it's a great read on the heels of all of the anti-bullying laws that are being enacted around the country. Grab yourself a copy or 3 along with the rest of the Phanatic's library here. 

• Amazin Avenue has put together an incredible account of the financial woes of the NY Mets. Long story short, the Mets were screwed long before Bernie Madoff ripped them off. It certainly doesn't help that they still owe Bobby Bonilla about $30M over the next 25 years!

• Finally, two of my greatest passions in life have finally come together: The Phillies and Legos! Well, not Lego brand "legos" but it's close enough. Lego men can't bend at the knee or elbow anyway so Advantage = OYO. For $12 a pop, though, I sure hope these guys are taller than 1.5". Stocking stuffers perhaps?

Lunch Time Link Dump

I thought I was over my baseball funk, but I'm not. Truth is, I'm having a hard time getting interested in the post season hot stove news. Over pay for Papelbon? Resign an utterly useless Schneider? Yeah, sure why not. I've even found myself contemplating on more than one occasion how hard it would be to turn my Phillies man room into a Flyers room. But perhaps this being the eve of my yearly end of season fantasy baseball party, some stimulating baseball talk this weekend will get me back into baseball shape. In the mean time, chew on some links...

• Clayton Kershaw won the NL Cy Young yesterday becoming the youngest pitcher since Doc Gooden to do so. You may recall my late August rant in which I said it was all but locked up for him, but FanGraphs doesn't seem to agree. Until there's a massive changing of the guard in the BBWAA, don't expect to see xFIP or SIERA lines accounted for in award season voting. Hell, voters are just now starting to contemplate the concept of WAR. Roy Halladay can win the advanced metrics battle for the next decade, but if someone else comes out on top with the pitching triple crown, he's going home with the hardware in November. I'll be more than happy to settle having 3 pitchers finish in the top 5 every year. And speaking of voting, who are the two jokers who tossed Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong 5th place votes? On no planet are those two pitchers even top ten material. 

• Phuture Phillies is a great site for tracking the up and coming prospects within the organization, but if you're looking for an outsider's perspective on some of the same guys, I suggest Seedlings to Stars.  A lot of the more recent guys they've been looking at are your potential bullpen arms for next year in Joe Savery, Justin DeFratus, and Michael Schwimmer. 

• If you haven't had a chance yet, you might want to check out the Yoenis Cespedes highlight reel. He's looking for a monster contract, but the Phillies have apparently kicked the tires on him. Potential left fielder? Doubtful, with all the interest the Phillies have shown in Grady Sizemore and Michael Cuddyer. But he's worth keeping an eye on because a few other teams in the division are looking at him as well...

 

• Considering the fact that most of my childhood baseball favorites are now at or nearing retirement, I always find "Will they get in the HOF?" articles to be interesting. Beyond the Box Score does a great analysis of Who's Next? using weighted WAR numbers that coincide with their adjusted Hall of Fame based on wWAR. 

• Big news out of Major League Baseball yesterday with the sale of the Astros leading to a move to the AL. For those not familiar, this creates two 15 team leagues with 3 divisions of 5, something baseball have been pining for for years. But it also creates the opportunity for MLB to add a 2nd Wild Card position into the mix and this is where the debate begins. On one hand, a second Wild Card position would take away the entire storyline of a September collapse and wrap it into one game around October 1st. The Braves and the Red Sox could have had their collapse and still had a last ditch effort against the Cardinals and the Rays to get into the playoffs. In that respect, the whole month can come down to a one game push and the build up to September 28th that we had this year may never have happened. On the other hand, this change truly puts a premium on winning your division. The Yankees-Rays-Red Sox no longer have the luxury of coming in first or second and still finding themselves automatically in the October mix. If you want to live to fight for more than one more day, win the division. Regardless of which side you take, between this and the collective bargaining agreement talks, the next few seasons are bound to shake out differently than what we're used to. Jayson Stark breaks it all down on ESPN in regards to scheduling.

Lunch Time Link Dump: First Off Season Edition

• Hot off the presses is Baseball America's Prospect rankings. The biggest surprises to me are Catcher, Sebastian Valle coming in at 3rd and Pitcher, Jonathan Pettibone jumping all the way up to Number 4. The Phillies have a handful of strong pitching prospects, but the Pettibone promotion seems to come out of left field to me. May, Biddle, Aumont, DeFratus, and Colvin are the more commonly talked about names which leads me to believe that Pettibone must have really impressed some scouts with velocity or movement to elevate his status so much. Also take a look at that 2015 projected lineup. A lot of familiar faces mixed in with a lot of high upside talent!

 

• Shane Victorino is a #Belieber 

• A growing rumor I've heard on a few sites is the idea of Jose Reyes to the Marlins. The Phillies are the model of success when it comes to signing a superstar free agent to a middle of the road team that's moving into a new stadium. But then what do they do with Hanley Ramirez? One option is to move him to third base which gives you a powerful lineup of Reyes, Gaby Sanchez, Hanley, LoMo, Bonifacio, and Stanton with a healthy Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez. But with Emilio Bonfacio playing a lot of games at 3rd Base for the Marlins last season, maybe either he or Hanley become expendable pieces for the Marlins. Either would be solid top of the lineup SS options for a whole host of teams, including the Phillies.

• Adding insult to an already insulting October/November, the Cardinals have asked for permission from the Phillies to interview Ryne Sandberg for their now vacant head coaching position. When word got out that the Cubs were looking for a manager with a little more experience than Sandberg, I was a bit giddy over the idea of keeping him in our organization. With Pete Mackanan interviewing for a handful of other coaching jobs, there's likely to be an opening just to the left of Charlie on the top of the dugout steps. At the very least, the AAA job is surely Sandberg's to keep. Maybe I'm just daydreaming alongside Justin from TBOH when I imagine Sandberg grooming Phillies minor leaguers for two more years after Charlie can ride off into the sunset of retirement and Ryne can take over a team largely made up of his own guys.  

• Citi Field is in the midst of a make-over. No, not some sort of noise suppressing dome to eliminate the sound of airplanes landing at Laguardia, but instead they'll be moving in the outfield walls to address the significant drop in HRs that they've experienced since moving from Shea. Perhaps they don't realize that a deep outfield isn't necessarily a bad thing for a team that led the league in extra base hits that didn't clear the wall and has enough speed to rank 3rd in SBs. Do the 10-12 extra HRs a year make up for the likely reduction in doubles and triples that drive in runs? No one else in baseball can quite screw things up like the Mets. With their aforementioned noise pollution problems, the ridiculous Jason Bay contract, the revolving door of management, having to watch their best player leave via free agency, and finishing 3.5 games behind the Washington Nationals, it's only getting worse to be a Mets fan.

• It's not too early to start Christmas shopping for me:

Sure, Why not...

As if the legal ass-kicking Lenny Dykstra hasn't been enough, he'll be entering the boxing ring this Saturday for a showdown with frequent "celebrity boxer" Jose Canseco. Mark this in your Calendar as perhaps the first time ever that Jose Canseco is the least despicable man in the ring. Those of you (no one) who may have been looking forward to catching up with the Dude this Saturday at the autograph show at Oxford Valley will be disappointed to know that he's had to cancel in order to make it out to Hollywood. 

A woman abusing, gun toting, writer and failed MMA fighter versus a twizzler chewing, bankrupt, drug addict who frequently exposes himself to women. Only in America!