Phils End 20 in 20 With a Fizzle

I said 2+ weeks ago that a 12-8 run over the 20 games in 20 days stretch would be considered a success. I'm here today to say that 10-10 still isn't a failure. It's .500, and more than half of those games were on the road. They have 10 days of Sub-.500 opponents and then a day off at home before the Marlins come to town. Let's look at a little good and bad right now status report right now...

The Bad:

• Cliff Lee does not look good. Lee earned massive recognition last season as a guy who didn't walk anyone. This year, he's regressed back to the norm. Not to say that his numbers are terrible, but 10.28 K/BB and 4.71 K/BB are completely different numbers. His K/9 rate is a career best which leads me to believe he's just doing a little too much of the work himself. When you try to strike batter out, you occasionally let one slip. And if you're walking guys more than usual, the one that slips can really do some damage. I expect a better second 3rd from Lee, but don't look for 2008 this year.

• The bench and bullpen are too much of a revolving door. Mostly due to injury, but partially due to the juggling match that Charlie likes to play, the bullpen and bench just don't seem to have very defined roles just yet. Is RF a true platoon? Who's the first lefty off the bench? Who's the first lefty out of the pen? It's all just a bit confusing right now. Ballplayers are creatures of habit. Ryan Madson finally looks comfortable as a closer, and here comes Jose Contreras back to the team with Brad Lidge pitching scoreless innings of extended spring training. We need to know by the All-Star Break just where people fall in line.  

The Good:

• Raul Ibanez can still hit a baseball. Since May 12th, Ibanez's BA has gone up 14 points and more importantly, his OPS has risen 79 points. He's a streaky hitter and these kinds of ups and downs can be expected, but for the start of May, Ibanez looked more helpless at the plate than he ever has in his career. It's a long summer and regardless of whether or not the Phillies trade for a little more outfield pop or platoon Ibanez with Francisco and Mayberry a little more when Victorino gets back, Raul will have some important ABs with this team down the stretch.

• Domonic Brown has 4 multi-hit games since being called up. How many did he have last year? Three. He already has more doubles than he did last season and he's hitting the ball hard when he does get out. He's not missing the ball at nearly the same rate as he did last year and during the spring, and in the NL, there aren't a whole lot of rookies lighting the world on fire. Freddie Freeman looks over-matched and Brandon Belt has been up and down. As a fan of the hardware, I would really like to see Domonic Brown make a run at the ROY award. I think it's only another week or two before Brown rises to the top of the class and gets full time starts against lefties and righties alike.

The Worley-Bird!

Get it? Because those things on your roof are called whirleybirds and Vance Worley pitched for the Phillies last night? Yeah, I agree... not as funny as it first sounded in my head.

But Vance Worley did get the job done last night and that's what really matters. In fact, he was riding a 21 inning scoreless streak until a few borderline ball/strike calls let him to give up a run. Not a bad start for a career, but I wouldn't get used to it. The fact remains that while Vance Worley is looking like a stud right now, the minute Joe Blanton is healthy, Worley will be back down in the minors. He's 23 years old with plenty of time left to develop and the best opportunity for regular action will be in the minors. With 3 or our 4 starters throwing complete games pretty much whenever they feel like it, some of our bullpen arms are already under-worked. Kyle Kendrick only pitches once a week and Dany Baez has thankfully been left to ride the pine pretty often. Worley will continue to be your #1 "In Case of Emergency, Call Reading" guy for the better part of the season.

Also, in case you hadn't noticed, Raul did exactly what I said he would... fail at becoming the world worst slumper. Naturally, that's a good thing for the Phillies and it's nice to see some semblance of power from the $12M man in left field. It also gives Ruben and Charlie some piece of mind knowing that they can let Domonic Brown get daily at bats in the minors for a few more weeks before pressing the panic button.

Your 2011 Phillies: Fantasy Baseball Outlook Part 1

C - Carlos Ruiz:
The guy had the best year of his career in 2010 and is priced so cheap in most leagues that he's tempting to snatch up. But as impressive as his clutch performance has been, it doesn't earn you extra fantasy points. Single digit HRs and 50 RBI are about the going rate for any catcher with a full time job. Chooch is certainly capable of repeating his 2010, but that still doesn't make him a viable option in anything but the deepest of mixed or NL only leagues.

1B - Ryan Howard
I've gone back and forth almost a dozen times on my Ryan Howard opinion. First Base is an incredibly deep position where the difference between Adrian Gonzalez in round 2 and Justin Morneau in round 7 might not be all that much. But I have a feeling that Ryan Howard is about to find his stroke once again. His strikeout rate has dropped significantly over the last two years and his spring numbers suggest that he's putting good wood on the ball. Few of his counterparts work as hard as Howard at improving his flaws and as a guy who has been dropping down draft boards, 40 HR and 125+ RBI are starting to look like a real bargain after the 2nd round.

2B - Chase Utley
A month ago, he's the 2nd best second baseman in the game and being drafted in the first round. Now, I won him in an auction league for $12 last Friday. The knee is worrisome, but at middle infield spots, there isn't a plethora of other options better than Chase. It's still looking as if surgery is the less likely scenario and I'll predict 130 games for Chase this year. What can he possibly do in 130 games? Well in 2007 he hit .332, had 22 HRs, and 100+ Runs and RBI. A one legged Chase Utley is still capable of elite numbers for his position. While he should fall down a few rounds, he's worth it if his value is deflated enough.

SS - Jimmy Rollins
2007 Jimmy Rollins is dead. He'll never be a 30/30 guy again, and he'll never knock you in 90 runs. While some owners are likely to take a shot at him because the potential is still there for him to perform like a Jose Reyes, I'm going to tell you not to. You'll only be disappointed. While Jimmy has been regressing, the rest of the world has caught up to him. Shortstop isn't an incredibly deep position, but there are a handful of guys out there who will give you 75 R, 20SB, and 15HR which is about Jimmy's upside. Pass on Rollins and take a risk on Starlin Castro instead.

3B - Placido Polanco
Possibly the most scarce position in fantasy baseball this year, third basemen are hard to come by. After Longoria/Zimmerman/Arod/Bautista fall off the board, your options plummet. That still doesn't make Polanco a viable one. His position eligibility at 2nd base boosts his value as a middle infielder and his elbow injury isn't really anything that should concern you, but he is what he is. I love him on my real team, but wouldn't want him clogging up my fantasy team.

LF - Raul Ibanez
I'm one of the few guys who see some value here. Raul has a history of streaky behavior while in a Phillies uniform. But one thing that has been prevalent throughout his career is that a hot spring = a fast start to the season. Guess what? Raul is hitting the ball well this spring. Draft him and ride the wave until his first epic slump occurs. At the end of the year he'll put up the usual 25 HR, 85 RBI, .275 batting average but it will most certainly have its ups and downs.

CF - Shane Victorino
Power/Speed guys are hard to come by. But speed guys are becoming more prevalent. I'm not quite sure which category to put Victorino. 18HRs with 34SBs in 2010 puts him in the first category so if you think he's capable of a repeat, go for it. I still think he's a notch below guys like Andrew McCutchen and Shin-Soo-Choo, but if he can hit .280 and put up similar numbers to last year, he's worth a lot more than you might think.

RF - Ben Francisco
For the sake of this post, I'm assuming Ben Francisco is your starting RF for the entire season. He's likely going for dirt cheap in just about every league. While he's never had one particular year that jumps out at you, his 162 game career averages aren't all that bad. 18 HR and 12 SB are easily attainable, and 65 RBI are a low estimate. He'll likely start the season batting 5th which should give him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. Comparable to Jayson Werth? No, probably not. But most of the same tools are there. In a deep league, he's worth a flier.