Award Season Is Upon Us

As a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, I am duty bound to provide my own take on the post season awards. Rather than go with my knee jerk reactions at the end of the season, I've taken a few days to let things sink in and analyze the first few games of the post season before coming to the following conclusions... hey man, my vote isn't an official part of the BBWAA so I can use whatever criteria I want!

The Connie Mack Top Manager Award:
1. Kirk Gibson
2. Joe Maddon
3. Jim Leyland

It may be the trendy choice, but leading a team that nearly lost 100 games the year before to the playoffs is a pretty phenomenal feat. There were some cornerstones in place, but the Diamondbacks were largely a team consisting of an under performing Justin Upton, a couple of pitchers with potential, and a bunch of role players coming into the year. But Gibson got a career best season from Upton, a fantastic performance from his pitching staff, and a lot of key contributions from both veterans (Miguel Montero) and rookies (Paul Goldschmidt) alike. Maddon deserves a ton of credit for losing his 7 highest paid players in the offseason and still finding his way into the playoffs, but his offense still sported more talented names than Gibson's. Leyland had his fair share of diversity as well (another Miguel Cabrera DUI), but again, his team's performance isn't as much of a surprise.

The Willie Mays Top Rookie Award:

1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Eric Hosmer
3. Freddie Freeman

Easy choice here as Kimbrel was nearly unhittable for 5 1/2 months this season. I pegged him high in my fantasy drafts because I thought the Braves would win a lot of games, but with that stuff, he's a top notch closer regardless of what team he plays for. 2nd and 3rd place is a bit of a toss-up. Both of these guys are the next wave of power hitting 1st baseman, and both found themselves in a situation more pressure filled than any 21-22 yr old should have to deal with in the majors. In the end, their counting stats were very similar, but I give Hosmer the nod because I think his SB totals will increase and he's the closest thing to a 5 tool player at 1st base we've seen in the majors in a long time.

The Goose Gossage Top Reliever Award:

1. Craig Kimbrel
2. John Axford
3. Mariano Rivera

Saves are a statistic that I will never fully understand the importance of, so instead of going with the guy who was 49 for 49 in Jose Valverde, I find myself asking the question "who do you want to close for your team?" That guy is Craig Kimbrel. He blew 5 saves and the end to his season was a bit shaky, but he was arguably overused and out of gas as the season wound down. But if every closer in baseball was available and fully rested for Game 7 of the World Series and my team was nursing a 1 run lead, I want the guy with the best stuff and right now, Kimbrel would be my man. Axford had a rough start, but was dominant the rest of the way, but would still play 2nd fiddle on my team. Mariano Rivera gets my third vote because his name alone strikes enough fear in his opponents eyes that he can get the job done, even if his stuff isn't as good as it used to be.

The Walter Johnson Top Pitcher Award:

1. Justin Verlander
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Roy Halladay
4. Cliff Lee
5. Jered Weaver

I don't see any other way to list this one. When was the last time the Pitching Triple Crown was won in both leagues? 1924. Justin Verlander takes the cake as the best pitcher in baseball this year and everyone else is a distant second. At one point, the Tigers were headed to the playoffs as a .500 team in games in which Verlander didn't pitch. And as much as I want to be a homer, Clayton Kershaw had the better season than Roy Halladay. You can try to justify Halladay having the better season by using walk rates and obscure SABR stats, but I'm just not seeing it. 4th and 5th are tight, but distant from the rest of the pack. I give the nod to Cliff Lee for his month long stretches of domination and his turnaround from a rough start to the season.

The Stan Musial Top Player Award:

1. Matt Kemp
2. Ryan Braun
3. Jacoby Ellsbury
4. Curtis Granderson
5. Jose Bautista
6. Justin Upton
7. Adrian Gonzalez
8. Justin Verlander
9. Prince Fielder
10. Roy Halladay

I love quality pitching, but I just don't give the same merit to pitchers that I do to position players. While Verlander may win the MVP award, I need to see a full range of skills from the guy I'm voting as the top player. If Verlander his a few HRs and won a Gold Glove, it's all his! Matt Kemp is the most complete player in the game right now and probably the only guy in baseball capable of chasing down the elusive Batting Triple Crown. And he does it with Gold Glove caliber defense and the ability to steal 30 bags a year. And he does it on a dreadful team. The rest of the guys at the top of this list compile their numbers with a great supporting cast, Kemp does it on his own. While the rest of the guys on the list can do 3 or 4 of the things Matt Kemp can, he's the best 5 tool player in the game and probably the best of my generation not named Barry Bonds.

Vance Worley Won't Win ROY, But Should He?

While baseball pundits may be calling this year "The Year of the Rookie," it seems to me like all of those rookies are in the American League. Eric Hosmer, Dustin Ackley, Mark Trumbo, Ivan Nova, Jordan Walden, Jeremy Hellickson, etc... The AL ROY race is destined to be a good one and it would not surprise me if more than a few Hall of Famers come out of this class. Not so much with the NL. The odds on favorite at the outset of the season seemed to be Giants 1st Baseman Brandon Belt, but after disappointment and injury, he's all but dropped off the radar. As have a lot of other potential NL candidates. The good news for Vance Worley is that there are only three serious contenders for the NL ROY award this season. The bad news is that he's probably still third on that list. With a 9-1 record and a streak in which the Phillies have won each of his last 12 starts, Worley really couldn't be doing much more to get himself into contention. He's pitched well in both the minors and majors this year, often on odd days rest and in a multitude of situations. But he falls behind the Braves duo for a couple of reasons.

First of all, his cumulative stats just aren't there. Since 2000, only three starting pitchers have won the ROY award in either league. The worst collective season among those pitchers was Dontrelle Willis' 14-6 record with 142 Ks and a 3.30 ERA in 160.2 innings in 2003 for the Marlins. If everything goes perfectly and each starter throws on a regualr schedule for the remainder of the season, Worley will get 5 more starts. The best record he could accumulate would be 14-1. That might do it, but at 98 IP right now, I think he'd have to mix in a couple of complete games to accumulate the innings and more importantly strikeouts to get in the right ballpark. On the season, Worley is averaging just under 6IP/start, but assuming he's as lights out the rest of the way as he's been for the past few months, the best he can really hope for is 33 more IP and maybe 28 more strikeouts. So being optimistic, let's project Worley at 13-2, 2.65 ERA, 131IP, and 111 strikeouts. While the ERA is impressive, the rest of the stats rank well below the other three ROY winners (Willis, Justin Verlander, and Jason Jennings). 

Looking for a more accurate comparison? Look no further than the Phillies of the last few years. Kyle Kendrick finished 5th in 2007 voting with a 3.87 ERA, 49Ks, a 10-4 record and 121 IP. JA Happ finished 2nd in 2009 voting with a 2.93 ERA, 119 Ks, a 12-4 record and 166 IP. Worley will likely fall somewhere in between.

But with a weak crop of rookies in the NL, those numbers are almost enough to get the job done. Almost. Enter, Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman and closer Craig Kimbrel. Freeman has rebounded from a tough start to the season by putting up a line that currently sits at .291BA/18HR/63RBI. He fell right into the Braves every day first base role and at times, held the offense all by himself while Dan Uggla and Jason Heyward struggled, and Chipper Jones and Brian McCann spent time on the DL. His rookie numbers are on pace to eclipse Ryan Howard's of 2005 to put it into perspective.

But even Freddie Freeman pales in comparison to Craig Kimbrel. Just how good is Kimbrel this year? Take a look at what MLB Dirt has to say:

"Kimbrel has appeared in 65 games and logged just 63.2 innings, or less than one inning per outing, something I hate. But what he has done in those 63.2 innings is nothing short of historic. He has already eclipsed 100 strikeouts and has a K/9 rate of 14.56 which stands as a record for rookies with at least 60 innings of work and ranks 6th all-time among any pitcher with at least 60 innings of work in a season and is one of only 8 pitchers to accomplish this feat. Billy Wagner is the only one to accomplish it more than once and he did it three times.
What is even more remarkable is that he also has a 1.70 ERA and 1.21 FIP and has allowed only one homerun. Only two other pitchers have had a K/9 greater than 14.0 and an ERA lower than Kimbrel’s 1.70. Eric Gagne is one, and he won a Cy Young award, and Billy Wagner is the other and finished 4th in Cy Young award voting."

But if we look at comparable recent ROY winners the same way we did for Vance Worley, the contest isn't even close. Since 2000, there have been three other closers who have won ROY honors (all in the AL: Kaz Sasaki, Andrew Bailey, and Neftali Feliz). Kimbrel has already converted more saves than any of them (tied at 40 with Feliz), K'd more batters than any of them (103 to Bailey's 91), and is on pace to throw more innings with a lower ERA than any of them. Kimbrel benefits from the fact that he won the starting job out of Spring Training and the fact that his setup man Jonny Venters is probably the best in the business right now. He's a pedigree pitcher who was bred for this role.

Worley is a nice little story of a pretty decent minor leaguer who wasn't on anyone's radar or prospect lists, got the call with some real big shoes to fill, and filled those shoes admirably. He won't win NL ROY, but he's been invaluable to the Phillies this year.

Phils End 20 in 20 With a Fizzle

I said 2+ weeks ago that a 12-8 run over the 20 games in 20 days stretch would be considered a success. I'm here today to say that 10-10 still isn't a failure. It's .500, and more than half of those games were on the road. They have 10 days of Sub-.500 opponents and then a day off at home before the Marlins come to town. Let's look at a little good and bad right now status report right now...

The Bad:

• Cliff Lee does not look good. Lee earned massive recognition last season as a guy who didn't walk anyone. This year, he's regressed back to the norm. Not to say that his numbers are terrible, but 10.28 K/BB and 4.71 K/BB are completely different numbers. His K/9 rate is a career best which leads me to believe he's just doing a little too much of the work himself. When you try to strike batter out, you occasionally let one slip. And if you're walking guys more than usual, the one that slips can really do some damage. I expect a better second 3rd from Lee, but don't look for 2008 this year.

• The bench and bullpen are too much of a revolving door. Mostly due to injury, but partially due to the juggling match that Charlie likes to play, the bullpen and bench just don't seem to have very defined roles just yet. Is RF a true platoon? Who's the first lefty off the bench? Who's the first lefty out of the pen? It's all just a bit confusing right now. Ballplayers are creatures of habit. Ryan Madson finally looks comfortable as a closer, and here comes Jose Contreras back to the team with Brad Lidge pitching scoreless innings of extended spring training. We need to know by the All-Star Break just where people fall in line.  

The Good:

• Raul Ibanez can still hit a baseball. Since May 12th, Ibanez's BA has gone up 14 points and more importantly, his OPS has risen 79 points. He's a streaky hitter and these kinds of ups and downs can be expected, but for the start of May, Ibanez looked more helpless at the plate than he ever has in his career. It's a long summer and regardless of whether or not the Phillies trade for a little more outfield pop or platoon Ibanez with Francisco and Mayberry a little more when Victorino gets back, Raul will have some important ABs with this team down the stretch.

• Domonic Brown has 4 multi-hit games since being called up. How many did he have last year? Three. He already has more doubles than he did last season and he's hitting the ball hard when he does get out. He's not missing the ball at nearly the same rate as he did last year and during the spring, and in the NL, there aren't a whole lot of rookies lighting the world on fire. Freddie Freeman looks over-matched and Brandon Belt has been up and down. As a fan of the hardware, I would really like to see Domonic Brown make a run at the ROY award. I think it's only another week or two before Brown rises to the top of the class and gets full time starts against lefties and righties alike.