Am I Drinking the Phillies Kool Aid?

An interesting thing happened to me this week. I was accused of drinking the Phillies Kool Aid too much. Me. Kool Aid. The guy who has hurled every expletive in the book at Ryan Howard and the guys who signed him to a ridiculous extension. Kool Aid.

Apparently, the fact that I don't believe the signing of Marlon Byrd is the end of the world means that me and Ruben Amaro Jr. are BFFs and we will be getting matching charms that say so this weekend.

Ruben is dumb for setting the market. But he does it every year so why are we surprised? He gives multiyear deals away like they're Halloween candy. Again, why are we surprised? RAJ has a longer leash than any of us like to admit. If you hope that a Marlon Byrd failure is going to cost Ruben his job, you're probably going to be disappointed. So rather than dwell on what a bunch of buffoons the Phillies front office must be, I like to focus on the possibilities that this signing might create...

First, Marlon Byrd is not the difference between 73 wins and 93 wins. But 2 years and $16M for Marlon Byrd is probably a better deal than they would have got if they signed Carlos Beltran, or Nelson Cruz, or Curtis Granderson, or Jacoby Ellsbury, or Shin Soo Choo. Crazy, I know.

Byrd was probably the 6th or 7th best outfield option in a lukewarm free agent class. The 5 guys at the top of the list will all receive guarantees of more years and more than twice as much per year from a team. Is Shin Soo Choo a better baseball player than Marlon Byrd? Of course, but probably not TWICE as good. Marlon Byrd offers a few things:

1. Potential Value. PED guys are always a gamble. For every David Ortiz who competes at a high level after his "alleged" PED days, there's a dozen guys that fall off the map. Byrd failed a drug test in 2012, missed some time, honed his skills in winter ball, and churned out a career year in 2013. Was he on PEDs when he cranked out 24 HRs and a .291 BA this year? I would guess not. Who would risk a 100 game ban knowing that they are under the watchful eye of MLB coming off a suspension? Some of those skills might be a one year wonder, but some might be real. $8M is a huge gamble for you and I, but for the Phillies it's a drop in the bucket. Assuming they are up against the luxury tax number as expected, Byrd's contract will represent about the same percentage of overall contracts at Geoff Jenkins did in 2008. That worked out alright for everyone, didn't it? If Byrd produces 80% of what he did last year, he's a bargain. If he doesn't, well then you have a guy who can replicate 75-80% of Byrd's 2013 numbers already on the roster with Darin Ruf and Marlon Byrd is a sunk cost. 
2. Contract length compatibility. The Phillies are already in an impossible situation. By 2017, the entire roster will need to turn over. But they're also not in a position to hand the keys off to a team full of guys in the farm system. Byrd on a short deal puts his contract in line with the Utley/Rollins/Lee/Papelbon/Howard deals that tell us that we will have a brand new team in 2017. Adding any of the other top OF free agents would required a longer deal, which would have meant they would be around longer than the core. None of the top 5 outfielders are young enough to be a building block for the next team. Paying a 35 year old Jacoby Ellsbury $20M in 2018 while the rest of the team is in their 20s would be a much bigger point of contention than the $8M Byrd will be owed next year if he's terrible.
3. The opportunity to add more pieces. I don't think adding any of the other free agent outfielders would have been enough to right this ship. But the amount of money they are all looking for would have made it nearly impossible to add any other impact players this offseason. There are holes on this team well beyond RF. 1-2 starters, 2-3 bullpen arms, and an entire new bench are needed. The difference between what Byrd will make and what any of the other free agent outfielders will make may be upwards of $10M this year. Sink that money elsewhere.

Most importantly, trading Domonic Brown is still on the table. We all know that the cupboards are still pretty bare in the minors for the Phillies. If you're crazy like me and you aren't convinced that this era of Phillies baseball is completely dead (okay, so maybe I'm drinking Kool Aid here), then you know that Ruben needs to take one more homerun swing on the trade market if another World Series is going to happen.  Domonic Brown is a commodity. When I look at him, I see a guy who crushed baseballs the month of May, but has been a slightly above average baseball player in every other month of his career. He has a cannon for an arm, but misreads and misjudges 50% of the flyballs that head his way. But there might be another GM out there that only reads HR/RBI/BA stat lines like RAJ does and he might be enamored with Dom Brown enough to make a big trade. I'm talking Matt Kemp, Yoenis Cespedes, Ryan Braun type of Big Trade. The Dodgers have a crowded outfield, the Atheletics have a tight budget, and the Brewers might be looking to distance themselves from the PED sideshow. Probable? No. But possible, and likely necessary if this core is going to make another deep run.

My Imaginary 2014 Phillies Lineup

C: Eric Kratz
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley (Re-signed for $12M/ season for 3 years)
SS: Freddy Galvis
3B: Maikel Franco (Promoted from AA)
Of: Domonic Brown
Of: Ben Revere
Of: Nick Castellanos (Acquired via Imaginary Papelbon Trade)
BN - C: Tommy Joseph (Promoted from AAA)
BN - MI: Cesar Hednandez
BN - IF: Cody Asche (Promoted from AAA)
BN - OF: John Mayberry Jr.
BN - Hitter: Darin Ruf

SP: Cliff Lee
SP: Roy Halladay (Re-signed for $10M/ season for 2 years)
SP: Cole Hamels
SP: Kyle Kendrick
SP: Jesse Biddle
SU: Antonio Bastardo
CL: Bruce Rondon (Acquired via imaginary Ruiz Trade)
Long Man: Jonathan Pettibone
Lefty: Joe Savery
RP: Justin DeFratus
RP: Tyler Cloyd
RP: Mike Adams


Unhappy face.

Sell, and do it now!

I hate the idea as much as you do... Giving up on a season with more than a third of its games still yet to be played. I especially hate it because I have ticket to 11 games in August and September. Do you think I want to sit through 90 degree weather and watch John McDonald flail at breaking pitches and Raul Valdes toss meatballs? No thanks.

But there has got to be a bigger plan at work here. A year and a half removed from a team that won 102 games and lost a divisional series to the eventual World Series Champion Cardinals, the current Phillies are a shell of their former self. If that 2011 team had a few more breaks go their way in the divisional series, they may have walked through the rest of the playoffs just as easily as the Cardinals did. That was a team with speed and pop and a 3.02 ERA. They had the tools to succeed. The 2013 team does not. If these Phillies have a few breaks go their way down the stretch and they speak into the playoffs as either a second Wild Card team or the division winner, they still don't have the tools to compete with St. Louis, LA, or Cincinnati (among others) in the NL. The only thing this team can accomplish in October is sucking another $500 out of my pocket as I buy playoff tickets.

While it remains to be seen if Phillies management has a plan, I have a plan that brings in fresh faces without a total press of the reset button...

• Sell, and sell now: if Matt Garza is worth Mike Olt, Justin Grimm, and CJ Edwards to the Rangers then Cliff Lee might have been worth three Jurickson Profars. Garza is just another guy. His perceived value is tied to pitching wins and an ERA that is unsustainable. If he can land you a slugging third baseman, a ML caliber pitcher, and an impressive pitching prospect then you need to strike while the iron is hot.

• Take advantage of the Tigers' desperation: They have no closer, their SS is about to be suspended for ties to a PED clinic, and their catchers are batting about a combined .200. Package Jonathan Papelbon, Jimmy Rollins, and Carlos Ruiz and ask for the sky. Nick Castellanos and Bruce Rondon are a good start. Castellanos is a top prospect in baseball, but largely wasting away in the Tigers minor league system right now. Rondon has all the stuff of a future closer, but a team that's in "win now" mode like the Tigers can't suffer the growing pains of a 22 year old at the back end of a bullpen. Both young players could slot in for the Phillies immediately and would be solid pieces to build on. An OF of Domonic Brown, Ben Revere, and Nick Castellanos suddenly has some balance to it. And shedding the bloated salary of Papelbon allows the Phillies to spread their money a little more evenly for future bullpen pieces.

• The Yankees are terrible at 3B: If the Yankees still think they can compete, sell them on Michael Young as a rental. Since the Yankees seem to be pursuing Alfonso Soriano, they must believe that the playoffs are still a possibility this season. Young isn't worth much in return but the Yankee 3B position has been a train-wreck all season. From what I can see, the Yankees prospect list is overloaded with Outfielders. Pry one of those guys away, and hope for the best. In the meantime, use the rest of the season as a try-out of sorts for Cody Asche. Asche has put up nice numbers the past two seasons but hasn't garnered much praise for his efforts. Given the kind of production the Phillies have gotten out of the hot corner for the past decade, the offensive bar is set pretty low.

• The Rangers are just as desperate: Two WS losses in the past two years have the Rangers hungry (as evidenced by the Garza trade). Unfortunately they may lose their cornerstone outfielder when the Biogenesis dust settles and Nelson Cruz's name is on a piece of paper. Given the fact that their only real backup plan is Craig Gentry, the Rangers have to find a way to hedge their bets in the outfield. John Mayberry, Darin Ruf, and/or Delmon Young should be available. Young and Mayberry are capable of playing RF, but Ruf might be the one most capable of providing de net numbers to fill the gap. I would attempt to package two of the three in return for second base prospect Rougned Odor. He's 19, has shown speed, gap power, and doesn't strike out a lot. He seems to project as an every day ML 2B from what I've read. He's also blocked long term by the trio of Profar/Andrus/Kinsler in Texas. 

• Re-sign Doc and Utley: Despite having missed 29 games, Chase Utley is still ranked 5th amongst second basemen in WAR. The free agent list of second basemen is #1 Robinson Cano, #2 Chase Utley, #3 A bunch of dudes who aren't good at baseball. The Phillies other options are Kevin Fransden, Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez. It's not pretty. Offer Utley the same deal that was given to Rollins and cross your fingers that the city has shown him enough good will that he'll accept a hometown discount. Otherwise he's going to make a fortune crushing balls into the short porch in RF for some other team. Roy Halladay is just as upset that Roy Halladay didn't perform well for the Phillies this season. Nothing says, "I'm sorry" like a comeback! He's 36, so you can't expect miracles, but two more seasons at around $10M per are probably good for everyone. That's slightly more than what Jamie Moyer made, and I think your expectations can be for a slightly better performance. 

• Only trade Lee if that 3 Profars offer comes in: I'm not happy with Cliff Lee's last two starts, but I also haven't forgotten his previous 18. The guy can still pitch and he does so with his left arm. I prefer the idea of keeping him on the Phillies, but I'm open to trading him, if the price is right. His contract is huge, but the usual teams could be interested. Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Dodgers, etc. Maybe the A's give up Addison Russell and a few other pieces? Maybe the Cardinals make Oscar Taveras and Carlos Martinez available? Whoever it is, give me three top five prospects and then we'll start talking. Otherwise, you have the option trying to pass Lee through waivers in August, trading him in the offseason, or waiting until the same time next year when a new batch of deadline buyers could get involved. 

Braves, Schmraves!

In trying to justify the shellacking taken to Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay the past two days, I've come to the following conclusion: The Braves are only slightly better than the Astros. Hear me out...

The all time single season mark for batting strikeouts by a team is 1,529 by the 2010 Diamondbacks. They had Mark Reynolds (211 Ks)... And finished 65-97 and dead last in the NL West. They recorded 4,343 outs in 2010 meaning 35.2% of their outs were strikeouts.

The Astros opened the season on the road in a three game series in which they struck out a total of 43 times. They batted in each of their 9 innings of play for a total of 81 outs made. Therefore, 43/81 or 53% of their outs were made via punch out. They are largely considered one of the worst teams in baseball and are projected to lose 100 games this year.

The Braves opened their season at home with two wins in which they struck out a total of 24 times. They have not batted in the 9th inning of either game, meaning they have only created 48 outs this season. 50% of their outs so far are via K and neither starter they have faced has made it more than 5 innings. Tonight they face one of only 13 pitchers in baseball to record 200 strikeouts last season.

Are the Braves winning in spite of themselves? Maybe. Will they race the Astros to the worst K numbers in baseball history? Probably. Am I scraping the bottom of the barrel here to find something to smile about in the NL East even though it's a ridiculously small sample size? Definitely.

The Definitive 2013 Phillies Prediction Post

It seems like only yesterday that the truck was packed and on its way to Clearwater... mostly because the last thing I wrote was a few days after said truck had arrived. 15 cases of gum, a pallet of Powerade, and virtually no injuries later the team is about to head north and embark on the 162 game journey that is a MLB season. Me? I still have two fantasy baseball teams to draft, a slowpitch softball season to prepare for, and a baseball-themed baby's room to finish before May 24th (we're naming him Chase, and yes it's exactly what you think).

But I would be remiss if I didn't dedicate a few moments to put virtual pen to paper and document my Phillies predictions for the year. This way when I'm right I look like the baseball Nostradamus, and when I'm wrong I can click delete and pretend this never happened. I was about 6 for 15 last year so obviously I know what I'm talking about...

That said, I present to you, the DroppedStrikeThree.com definitive list of Phillies predictions for 2013:

•  92 Wins. Hear me out on this one before you click back on your browser! The Phillies won 81 games last season. Their bullpen blew 27 games last year, up from 18 in 2011. You HAVE to assume the bullpen won't be THAT bad again. The lineup leaves Clearwater in tact, healthy, and arguably stronger than it ended last season. The team compiled a 35-24 record over August, September, and October. Projected over an entire season, that's good enough for 96 wins... I don't think it's a stretch to say that the bullpen will close out a few more Cliff Lee gems, a healthy Howard/Utley in April-May is worth a couple more wins than Wigginton/Galvis, and wet mop can perform better at the plate than Placido Polanco did in 2011. 11 more wins is very reasonable and likely enough to sneak into the playoffs.

• Chase Utley signs virtually the same exact contract as Jimmy Rollins (3 yr/ $33M) by the time the season is through. Two things to consider here: 1) Chase is still a fan favorite despite his decrepit knees and declining batting average. Every indication is that he wants to play a few more years and more importantly he wants to stay put. 2) There are few if any other options out there. Freddy Galvis can field, but his strikeout numbers this Spring are Dan Uggla-esque. The 2014 market consists of Robinson Cano (likely to be resigned), Ben Zobrist ($7M team option that's a no brainer), and a dozen middle aged replacement level players. Walking in the footsteps of Rollins only makes sense for Utley and the Phillies.

• Delmon Young plays fewer innings in right field than either John Mayberry Jr. or Laynce Nix. I genuinely love when the Phillies throw a few bucks at a former first rounder and cross their fingers that they can re-spark the magic. I loved when they gave Matt Anderson a bullpen shot in the spring of 2011, I want to see Joe Savery succeed whether it be as an outfielder or a pitcher or wherever else he can stick, and I'm always crossing my fingers that a Mark Prior comeback attempt will lead to another 245 strikeout season. It's like rooting for the big dog, turned underdog. Unfortunately, Delmon Young is just a dog.

• Ender Inciarte revives the frustrating tradition of keeping a Rule 5 guy on the roster all season long. David Herndon in 2010, Michael Martinez on 2011. The Phillies have tried to catch lightning in same bottle that snagged Shane Victorino in 2004. Inciarte fits a similar mold. While Darin Ruf is raking at AAA for the first two months of the season and balls aren't quite flying out of Citizens Bank Park at the same rate they're leaving Brighthouse Field this Spring, we'll all be pulling our hair out watching Inciarte ground into double plays like a young Wilson Valdez. As far as I can tell, Ender Inciarte's only discernible skill is speed on the bases which could have been had by keeping Juan Pierre around for $1M and change. Instead, the Phillies will march out Inciarte in painful pinch hitting ABs late in close games and we'll go bonkers.

• 37 Home runs for The Big Piece. I think Charlie made a smart move earlier this spring in playing Ryan Howard for something like 15 consecutive days; test those legs right from the start. Howard seems to have passed with flying colors. His bombs this spring aren't garden variety wall skimmers off minor league pitching. He took Craig Kimbrel opposite field to the Tiki Bar and he's dumped more than one out along Rt 19 in right field. I won't lie to you... .260 is about the ceiling on batting average for Ryan Howard's batting average. With season long interleague play, Howard should be able to take a fair amount of days off from the field while keeping his bat in the middle of the lineup. 

• The Braves set a new single season record for team strikeouts. Not the good kind done by their pitchers (who should be pretty impressive in their own right) either. This prediction has nothing to do with the Phillies, I just find it awesome. Take a free swinging team that went down 1,289 times last season: Deduct two incredibly patient guys in Chipper Jones and Martin Prado and replace them with the 300 K's the Upton brothers will yield. Juan Francisco full time at third base and the departed Michael Bourn will be close to a wash. The single season record for a team is 1,529 by the 2010 Diamondbacks (lost 97 games that year, just sayin...).  Washington and Philadelphia were #2 and #3 in pitching K's last season and that includes a Stephen Strasburg shut down. 1,530 is well within the Braves' grasp this season.

• #9 Domonic Brown All Star jerseys are your top selling Phillies jersey of the year. Not to say he's going to break out into the next Ken Griffey Jr. he was projected to be back in 2011, but far less talented players have rode a spring wave of HRs into an All-Star appearance (See: LaHair, Bryan in 2012). When Brown has 14 homers by the middle of June, fans will be building statues to honor the miraculous work performed by Wally Joyner in fixing Brown's swing. I see Dom Brown as exactly the type of player who can use a hot spring as a confidence boost and roll those numbers into the start of the regular season. And as mismanaged as he may have been for the past two years, there's a piece of land reserved for him in left or right field by default whether he succeeds right away or not. It certainly wouldn't be the first time Phillies fans stuffed a ballot box for a player that may or may not deserve the trip to an All-Star game. Considering the game will be held only about 100 miles up the turnpike, fans will have even more incentive to vote.

• This year's Vance Worley (and J.A. Happ before him) will be Adam Morgan. By that I mean non-prospect in early 2012 to big time contributor in 2013. Let's face it, John Lannan is probably more like the 4 IP/14 H/ 12 ER guy we saw last week than the guy who had only given up 5 runs in 14 innings previously. Jessie Biddle is the top prospect and Tyler Cloyd is the hot hand coming off a 15-1 season at AA/AAA, but Morgan is the guy with the best shot to help the Phillies this year. His command was on point last year averaging over a K per inning and 4.33 K/BB ratio over two levels last season. His appearances this spring were more of the same. Once the inevitable injury, or more likely a John Lannan/Kyle Kendrick implosion occurs, look for Morgan to make the most of his call. I'm even thinking something like 11 Wins and a top 5 Rookie of the Year candidate (similar to Worley/Happ/Kendrick).

• Charlie's back, Sandberg finds greener pastures. We know two things: 1) Charlie Manuel isn't ready to hang it up. 2) Ryne Sandberg is as eager as a kid on Christmas morning to land a head coaching job. If the Phillies have the successes I think they're going to have in 2013, it would be virtually impossible to let Manuel walk. Win 82 games and the job is all but a sure thing. Win 90 and it's a Vegas lock. Unfortunately I just don't see Sandberg sticking around another 2-3 years as Third Base coach and I have a sneaking suspicion that there will be some enticing vacancies with rebuilding teams in 2014. Maybe there's another job as "Advisor to the General Manager" that Ruben Amaro can create and keep Charlie around the front office?

Opportunity Cost

You can never have too much pitching... Except when you do.

One of the biggest achilles heels facing the Phillies this past season was relief pitching. Cliff Lee waited until July for his first win in large part due to shotty bullpen work. In total, the Phillies managed to blow an impressive 12 games when leading after 8 innings. Finishing 7 games out, it's obvious that cutting that number drastically was Ruben Amaro Jr's priority number one. But every veteran signing comes with a cost.

The Phillies carry 22 pitchers on their 40 Man Roster. They've invited another 8 to Spring Training. A typical Major League Roster carries 11-12 pitchers on the 25 Active Roster. See the log-jam yet? Now factor in the first 5 of those 12 spots go to Starting Pitchers:

1. Cole Hamels
2. Roy Halladay
3. Cliff Lee
4. Kyle Kendrick
5. John Lannan

Now one spot goes to your closer:

6. Jonathan Papelbon

Now you add in your newly signed setup man, last year's setup guy, and the old/reliable veteran you picked up on the cheap last week:

7. Mike Adams
8. Antonio Bastardo
9. Chad Durbin

That leaves you two, maybe three bullpen spots. With a Roy Halladay coming off a series of injuries that rendered him a shell of himself last year, and a back end of the rotation that includes a ticking time bomb in Kendrick and a guy who spent nearly all of 2012 in the minor leagues in Lannan, you have to assume that at least one of your pitchers will need to be a long man capable of throwing multiple innings.

10. Tyler Cloyd (the most likely suitor)

You're left with 1 or 2 specialty bullpen jobs for one of the following:

• Phillippe Aumont - former 1st rounder who pitched respectable in the bigs last year (24)
• Justin De Fratus - pitched to a 2.10 ERA across 3 levels of the minors in 2012 and well in his brief time in the majors (25)
• Michael Stutes - A roster mainstay in 2011 who battled injury in 2012 (26)
• Michael Schwimer - tall, hard throwing righty. (26)
• Jake Diekman - 11.5 K/9 last season with the Phillies (26)
• Jeremy Horst - 11.5 K/9 and a 1.15 ERA in 2012 with the Phillies (27)
• Ethan Martin - High upside stuff that the Phillies gave up Shane Victorino for (23)
• Justin Friend - Only one earned run and 24/24 in save chances for Reading last season (26)
• Adam Morgan - One of the top prospects in the organization who kicked it up in 2012 (23)

What is the common theme amongst these guys? They're all 23 or older with most of them on the downside of their second decade on the planet. The majority of them have seen major league time. When a player, specifically a guy pegged as a low end starter or relief pitcher, hits his late twenties his chances of being anything but a journeyman or career Quadruple A guy become slim. You can count the guys who have become elite relievers without a regular job by the time they're 26 on one hand. 

While the 34 year old Mike Adams (who had a rib removed in the offseason) and the 35 year old Chad Durbin (league average) may have came to the Phillies with low price tags, I can't help but be concerned with the opportunity cost they incur by preventing any one of the live arms mentioned above from seeing significant time with the big club. Now it's likely that injuries and bullpen shuffling lead to most of these guys spending a few weeks in the Majors, you have to wonder if that shuffling doesn't set back their progression even further.

In short, I'll take the unproven potential over the known mediocrity (Durbin) every day of the week. Especially when that talent is mid 20s and perhaps battling for their last chance to be a serious MLB player.

Range.

Super grainy Chase Utley picture of the day!

February 12th and he's already moving to his left... All aboard the Chase Utley train to MVP!

The Latest In Phillies Art Work

Nothing takes your mind off a 7-8 9th inning walk off loss like fine art (and excessive amounts of alcohol if you're off on Monday!) I'm a classy guy so I know a thing of two about the finer things in life. I also happen to have a birthday coming up... just saying...

(Warning: I know absolutely nothing about the artists or the sites selling their work. I'm just a really good googler.):

A print of an acrylic piece by Britt Miller with the Phanatic perched atop City Hall overlooking the skyline.

A print of a pencil piece by Chris DelVecchio of the Phanatic doing a signature belly bump.

A print of a pen/ink/watercolor work by Robert Myers showing 2008 World Series MVP in action.

A mixed-media work  by Paul Van Scott with baseballs making up an old school Phillies logo

A print of a pencil drawing by Juliana Dube of the CBP facade from Pattison Ave.

A print of an oil painting by David Courson of Roy Halladay dominating.

Get Me Melky

I'll admit it: I'm a sucker for high batting average guys. Mix in a little bit of plate discipline and some opposite field ability and I go completely gaga. Get on base at a .390 clip and I'll probably do your laundry too.

Get me Melky Cabrera.

Yeah, the guy tested positive for a known banned substance. Naturally, the knee jerk reaction is "he's a cheater, his stats are fraudulent and everything he's done over the last two years should be wiped clean." And it's a logical reaction given that most of sports fans in our twenties have had our childhood memories tainted by the steroid cloud. And while I don't agree with that notion, I'm not going to sit here and praise the guy for his honesty either. He's a cheater, an admitted cheater, but a cheater nonetheless. But man would I like to see his redemption story take place in red pinstripes.

A little Melky history for those who aren't aware... He was signed out of the Dominican Republic at the age of 16, was called up to the Yankees at the age of 20, was and a full time player (or at the very least, the more popular part of a platoon) by the age of 21. The guys who have managed a progression like that and stuck in the majors over the past decade or so can be counted on two hands. While his development time in he minors was limited, one thing was clear: he could hit. Said AA coach Bill Masse prior to his call up:

"The thing about Melky is, he has such hand-eye coordination that if there's a fastball up around his chin, he can still hit, and if there is a breaking ball that bounces in the dirt before the plate, he may hit that, too."

Baseball America also chimed in back in 2005 with the following:

"Strengths: Cabrera’s swing and hand-eye coordination make him the best hitter for average in the system. One club official compared his offensive game to Jose Vidro's. Cabrera has a quick stroke from both sides of the plate, with quick hands that allow him to catch up to quality fastballs. He also punishes breaking balls and lashes line drives from gap to gap. He has an above-average throwing arm."

So here's a raw, yet unpolished, talent from the Dominican Republic who is rushed to the majors to save a flailing Yankees outfield who performs averagely for a few seasons. He's traded to Atlanta and performs dismally (this is the guy who once threw a ball backwards). So bad in fact that he's outright released at the end of 2010. So after a string of failures, and at the still young age of 26 (to put things into perspective, Ryan Howard's first full season in the majors was at the age of 26... Melky had already had nearly 2,400 ABs by the time he was 26!), he drops 20 lbs, finds a groove at the plate with Kansas City, and follows it up with 3/4 of All-Star / MVP caliber baseball in San Francisco.

Then BOOM: Positive for Testosterone. Season over, free agency payday gone, career tainted... says the casual fan.

Luckily, I'm here to tell you he's worth the risk.

• He's not the first "damaged" product to play in Philadelphia. Brett Myers' transgressions were forgiven when he led the team to their first playoff appearance in 15 years, JC Romero's return from PED suspension was embraced (I own a "free JC" tshirt!), and I can't tell you one Phillies fan who doesn't want to see Pete Rose in the Hall of Fame.. If anyone can appreciate a comeback, it's Philadelphia fans.

• He'll come at a discount. The happiest guys in baseball right now: Michael Bourn and Shane Victorino. The Phillies aren't the only team looking for outfielders next year. Bourn is expected to be the cream of the crop despite the fact that he strikes out a ton, he'll be north of 30, and has seen his biggest weapon (SBs) nearly cut in half this year with one month to play. Nevertheless, he's still expected to something in the neighborhood of 5 years, $80M.  Victorino's piggy bank will be slightly less stout, but still out of the Phillies price range (in both years and dollars). Melky? He'll be looking for an opportunity to clear his name. It's virtually unprecedented that a player hitting his peak tests positive for PEDS before signing a long term deal. No one knows for sure how the market will unfold, but all indications are that teams aren't going to give a 4-5 year deal to a guy who is coming off a suspension. At age 28, he still has the opportunity to play out 2013 on a one year deal, prove that his numbers aren't a fluke, and sign that long term high dollar deal that he was on pace for as recent as last week.

• He's young by free agent outfield standards. Face it, our outfield is barren with the departure of Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence. Pencil Domonic Brown in right field for 2013 and you're still left with two holes. Cross you fingers that you can get away with some sort of Nate Schierholtz/John Mayberry platoon in one of those holes. Hell, you can even beg Juan Pierre to stick around for pennies on the dollar again. But the outfield is still mighty shaky. Scan the list of free agent outfielders for guys under 30, here's what you get: B.J. Upton, Delmon Young, and Melky. That's it. Trade for a young outfielder? What trade chips of value are left? With an infield that averages about 34 years old, your outfield has got to be young. Even if he can't be retained long term, the Phillies core isn't getting any younger. The Phils have only one or two more shots at making a run with the team they have in place. Jimmy Rollins is your lead off hitter, why not pair him with the best #2 hitter in baseball this season and hope the unjury gods are on your side for a change in 2013.

• Isn't it possible that we're giving too much credit to the PEDs? I'm not a sabremetric geek, but something doesn't quite add up. Melky's power numbers aren't particularly gaudy this season. Okay, so this is the part where I get a little nerdy on you... His HR/FB percentage is less than it was in both 2011 and 2009 and his line drive percentage is right here with his career norms. The percentage of his hits that fall for extra bases is less than it was in each of the past three years. So what's different? Batting average on balls in play. His BABIP is an obnoxious and improbable .379. That means that when Melky hits the ball between the lines, it's going to land for a hit of some sort 38% of the time. That's 70 points higher than his career average! Whether it be the spacious outfield in San Francisco allowing more balls to fall in, an improved batting eye, just plain dumb luck, or some combination of the three, balls that come off Melky's bat have gotten him on base at an amazing pace. His ground ball to fly ball ratio is a career high 1.09 suggesting even further that it's the ability to drive the ball hard on the ground that has helped his number spike rather than a Bonds like power binge. 

Sure when you see his .346/.390/.516 stat line with career highs across the board, red flags are raised. But we're talking about a guy who is reaching his prime offensive age, has moved beyond the accusations of laziness that plagued him in the past, and whose metric indicate not just a spike in power, but a steady increase in hitting ability. Maybe he's a bust next year and washes out of the game. Maybe he goes onto another decade of hitting .340. Given the narrow window of opportunity we have in front of us and the potential payoff, I'm willing to make that $10M gamble for a season or two.

Five Guys The Phillies Were Fools To Let Go

"C'mon, Pat... It's been like 3 months since your last blog entry and you're going to throw out a cookie cutter piece like this?"

Yes, it's been too long, but seeing how blogging doesn't pay the bills and the job that DOES keep a roof over my head has been so demanding, I've had to settle for venting in 160 character or less blurbs on twitter. Besides, I've given full Blogging privileges to at least four other dudes and I know for a fact that they've been swimming in free time!

Back to the point at hand... The Phillies are a dozen games out of the division, most of my fantasy baseball teams are barely treading water, and every prediction I had for the season has already gone down the drain. So naturally, it's time for second guessing!

The Phillies woes in 2012 have been well pronounced. You don't need me to tell you that they've come up short on offense, pitching, defense, and coaching. But what I can do is remind you of a handful of guys that if were still wearing Phillies uniforms, the season may look a little brighter. There's the obvious guys like Gio Gonzalez who we unloaded in the failed Freddy Garcia experiment. And then there's Brett Myers who has proven to be an effective starter and closer since leaving Philadelphia. And there's a slew of prospects who have been traded away or otherwise unloaded in recent years. But I'd like to focus on some of the names that don't always come to mind when you think of what could have been...

Ryan Vogelsong - RHP - San Francisco Giants
In a rotation that includes two Cy Young award winners, a $140M man, and a 22 year old budding star, who would have expected that a 34 year old who was pitching in Japan just a few years ago is the ace of the staff. Following a few years of ball in Japan, the Phillies wisely were the first to kick the tires on Vogelsong. He bounced between starter and the bullpen for the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs with limited success and was released mid 2010. Since then he's gone 23-12 with a 2.51 ERA for the Giants. Sometimes a prospect is overlooked by an organization, but what happened with Vogelsong was a flat out mistake. A guy in his mid thirties doesn't just turn on a light switch and figure out how to play. The raw talent had to be there from the start and the Giants succeeded where the Phillies failed at unleashing it. Here's a guy that immediately upon signing with a new team went on to pitch in the all star game and follow it up with a CY Young caliber season.  AND HE WAS IN OUR GRASP!

Jason Grilli - RHP - Pittsburgh Pirates
I know what you're thinking: "Who?" What has been the Phillies biggest weakness in 2012? A shaky bullpen. With Jose Contreras, Michale Stutes, and David Herndon making early season exits to the DL and the Chad Qualls experiment not working out as planned, the Phillies have been forced to piecemeal their bullpen together with AAAA ballplayers and an array of young arms. Meanwhile, on the other side of the state, Jason Grilli has made a name for himself as one of the top setup men in baseball.  But just last year he was wearing the uniform of a Phillies affiliate as he pitched in Lehigh Valley to the tune of a 1.93 ERA. Come July, he was released by the Phillies due to an opt out clause that allowed him to walk if another team wanted to add him to their major league roster. Grilli has excelled in Pittsburgh as an excellent bridge to Joel Hanrahan. He's pitching to a 2.66 ERA through 40.2 innings with a K/9 of 13.9. Even worse, he's only making about $1M. Just this week, Grilli finally proved he was human by giving up his first 8th inning lead of the season. The Phillies gave up an 8th inning lead in game 3 of the season.

Chad Qualls - RHP - Pittsburgh Pirates
Clearly I'm off my rocker with this pick, but hear me out. Sure, Qualls was a complete bust in a Phillies uniform. But I'm not looking at Chad Qualls the player, I'm looking at Chad Qualls the trade chip. When he was released by the Phillies, the Yankees swooped in and gobbled him up. After pitching much the same way he had in Philadelphia, New York shopped him around the league. Low and behold, Chad Qualls turned into third baseman Casey McGehee. McGehee has struggled this year and last, but he's still in his 20s and only two years removed from a .285 23 HR 104 RBI campaign. His first year of arbitration eligibility isn't even until next season. But most importantly, he plays third base! You know, that black hole on the left side of the infield that the Kevin Fransden is currently guarding! With a dreadful free agent market for third basemen, the Phillies are either going to have to convert a player to the position or get creative with trades. What's more creative than the Yankees turning a 33 year old dead armed Chad Qualls into a hitter capable of 20+ HR seasons on the cheap?

Scott Podsednik - OF - Boston Red Sox
Despite his impressive spring, Scott Podsednik lost his battle with Juan Pierre for the Phillies 4th outfielder job. Moving onto the Red Sox, Scotty Pods managed to hit .385 with extra base power and swipe 6 bags in his brief 73 ABs. Not to say that Juan Pierre hasn't been a better piece than I expected, but a healthy Podsednik is Pierre Plus. Even better, the Red Sox managed to flip him to the Arizona Diamondbacks for relief pitcher Craig Breslow, THEN picked him back up when the Diamondbacks released him. So the Phillies essentially let a better version of Juan Pierre escape with zero compensation and the Red Sox turned him into a quality relief pitcher AND Scott Podsednik!

Kyle Lohse - RHP - St Louis Cardnials
Remember him? Of course you do, he struck out 7 Phillies and pitched 7 innings of 1 run ball against us just last night! What you might not remember, though, is that there was a time when the Phillies big mid season splash didn't turn into the Cliff Lees of the world, but instead they were Kyle Lohse. Newsflash, though, Lohse has outperformed Lee this season! As a key cog that got the Phillies back into the playoffs in 2007 Lohse pitched average. But he was granted free agency at the end of the season as the Phillies chose to go with Adam Eaton and Kyle Kendrick in their rotation start 2008 (remind me again how we managed to win a World Series...). Lohse has been paid nearly identical money as Joe Blanton over the past two years and has outperformed him in every category. This year he's 12-2 with a 2.72 ERA and with no real front runner for NL Cy Young, he has the potential to be in the discussion.

The .500 Mark

As Hector Luna puts this game out of reach with his 1st career Grand Slam in his first AB in a Phillies uniform, I'm reminded that a victory brings the Phillies back to even baseball. 38 games into the season, 4 consecutive wins, and now the entire NL East is .500.

But what does the number .500 mean? Well it had been almost 3 years since the Phillies had a full month of baseball that was below .500 when they finished April at the 11-12 mark.

More importantly, I steer you towards an article on The Hardball Times that shows it's been 90 years (and 2 days) since the Phillies were last at the .500 mark as a franchise! The "Losing-est team in professional sports" as they've been called currently sits at 1055 games below the .500 mark with a 9256-10311 record. That's good for a .473 mark. Not the worst Win % in pro sports, but when you've been at it since 1883, the numbers tend to pile up.

I'm no Isaac Newton here, but I believe my math is correct...
If the Phils were to average the same record as they have for the last 5 seasons in which they've won the NL East, you end up with a 94-68 record good for a .584 Win %. It would STILL take 40+ years of .584 baseball (and likely 40 more playoff appearances which would make me completely broke) before the Phillies would be back at .500 as a franchise. So what if they just managed to win 85 games a year as they have managed to eek out for each year of the past decade... It would take almost 132 full seasons before they hit the .500 mark. I'll be sure to tell my great grand kids to throw a parade for that event! A more attainable goal? Catch the Orioles who at 895 games below .500 are the next closest team in terms of futility.

Around The Diamond

They stitch those things by hand? No wonder Official MLB balls cost like $12 each. 

Though I bet those dudes make about $.17 an hour...

Dimitri Young made about $53M dollars during 13 year career. And while the Young brothers have quite a history of childlike behavior on the field, there’s nothing childish abouthis massive collection of unblemished rookie cards from some of baseball’sall-time greats. I collect cards, though not as crazily as I once did. I’ll buy a few packs a year, and always pick up the Topps hobby set and the Phillies team set at the end of the year. But a collection of 500+ PSA Gem Mint 10 rated rookie cards is something I can’t even fathom. I own one card that’s rated even an 8. It’s a nice to see a ballplayer as interested in the industry that surrounds his sport as much as the fans are. 

Speaking of the sports memorabilia collections, one of the most valuable collections in history was auctioned off last week as song writer and author Seth Swirsky parted ways with items that ranged from the hat worn by Jose Canseco when a ball bounced off his head for a homerun to the original letter sent by Kennesaw Landis to Shoeless Joe Jackson telling him that he would not be reinstated into baseball following the Blacksox Scandal. The Hall of Very Good interviewed Swirsky prior to the auction. One of the more popular draws to the auction ended up being the infamous Bill Buckner ballthat sold for more than $400,000!  Poor Buckner...

Last week, baseball manager evaluation expert (seriously, he has an award from The Sporting News for writing a book on the topic!), Chris Jaffe from the Hardball Times steered me towards an article he wrote on Evaluating Charlie Manuel. It seems like perfect timing for all the Cholly hate that seems to be creeping up right now. Most telling line of the piece for me:

“In his nine full seasons on the job, he’s never had a losing record. Six times his teams won the division, and three others times they came in second place. Only once in those nine full seasons has one of his teams finished more than a game out of the postseason hunt, and that squad was just three games out of the wild card race.”

Not bad for a guy some want to run out of town. The article begs the question as to whether Manuel is lucky for having so much talent at his disposal or whether the talent is lucky to have been developed by a lifelong baseball guy like Manuel. I would suspect that the answer lies somewhere in the middle. Manuel sure milked guys like Jayson Werth and JC Romero for everything they were worth, didn’t he?

Another Hardball Times link and all-around fun topic to follow is their anniversary series. Fortyyears ago (plus 2.5 weeks now that it’s taken me so long to get this post up),Steve Carlton threw the most dominant game of his most dominant season. 300+ wins and not a single no-hitter, but his 14K, 1 hit, 1 BB performance was every bit as impressive as most no-hitters.  Read the article for a nice play by play and check out the series of anniversaries and day-versaries for a cool walk down memory lane.

Not that I have anywhere left in my man cave to hang things, but I picked up the above Phillies print by local artist Stan Ping throughPhilliesNation.com the other day. It should go well with my Dan Duffy canvas wrapped print. Grab one, they look cool.

I've Advised My Client, Mr. Charles Fuqua Manuel Jr., to Plead Insanity

When 68 year olds start to make silly decisions, we point to their age. Dementia or Alzheimer's is starting to kick in. When they do it night in and night out, we send them to a retirement home. If Charlie Manuel stepped out of the dugout without any pants on, it would be both hilarious and harmless.  But when he calls for bunts by the dozens, marches out 25 different lineups in 25 different games, and misuses his bullpen it might be time for him to pack his bags too.

Even I, one of the most steadfast Cholly supporters, am running out of excuses. In fact, if I were his defense attorney in the case of The People of The Delaware Valley v. Charlie Manuel, I'd just simply point to the bench/bullpen and say "What do you want me to do with that?" and rest my case.

It's not all his fault... Roy Halladay labors during the 5th inning of tonight's game, but who do you bring in? Joe Savery who was a minor league hitter this time last year? Brian Sanchez who's on his 2nd or 3rd stint with the team without ever hanging on? Jose Contreras whose Cuban to American age exchange rate likely means he's 57 instead of 40? Schwimmer, Bastardo, Qualls? Or should he just bring in Papelbon in the 5th and hope he can go 4+ strong? A one lung-ed, blindfolded Halladay is still likely going to perform better than just about every other option out of the bullpen and in a game where you have a solid lead and can afford to give up a few runs, you let your ace (107-0 when given a 4 run lead) try to work his way out of a jamb... it just didn't work so well tonight.

That said, there is plenty to be critical of:

• Bunting for Base-hits: Small ball is a necessity right now, but averaging almost two bunt for a base hit attempts per game takes any element of surprise out of the play. Bunt hits have only been successful 6 times all season.
• Constantly slotting your best hitter in the 7 hole: Chooch leads the team in every offensive statistic other than SBs, yet has the fewer plate appearances than Freddy Galvis and only 4 more than Ty Wigginton. Meanwhile the SS position has been the least productive on the field offensively for the Phillies and has only batted in the top 3 lineup spots. Fewer RBI than anyone other than the pitcher and zero HRs on the season from the SS.
• Signing  Using Jim Thome... ever: His homecoming was a heartwarming story, but to put things into perspective: The last time Jim Thome had an extra base hit in a Phillies uniform, Cory Lidle was the losing pitcher (and was still alive). 
• Lineup Juggling: This isn't the circus, it's baseball! March the same two teams out there two days in a row, will you! I'm tired of this pull names out of a hat while in the locker room to see who is going to play where and bat when.
• Saving your closer for a lead: Traditional baseball wisdom suggests... blah blah blah. When your 6-7-8 guys can't hold a lead, dig into the Tony LaRusa bag of tricks (not the lineup juggling bag, the other one!) and have your closer make 5 or 6 outs. 1) He's making $50M 2) If he's unavailable, he shouldn't be warming up in the pen multiple times and 3) Chances are he's going to sit on the bench later in the season and watch more complete game efforts from his starters than any other closer in baseball. You cannot in one breath say that Cliff Lee pitching ten innings is no big deal (and I don't think it is) because his pitch count was still low, and then in another say that you refuse to use Jonathan Papelbon for more than one inning this early in the season. Which is your pitcher freshness criteria, innings or pitches? It can't be both.

I'm tired, it's late... feel free to contribute to the list yourselves!

1/10th Season Report... Not Good

I had to do a double take when glancing at the NL East standings. How are the Phillies 7-9? I mean, how did they manage to win 7 games? The only one I remember was Opening Day in Pittsburgh! The other 6 had to be forfeits, right?

With 16 games (and a couple innings of standard Kyle Kendrick ball as I write this), the optimist in me wants to say that they really aren't that far off the pace of the two 8-8 starts that wound up in World Series appearances in 2008 and 2009. But the realist in me points to the fact that those Phillies teams scored 74 and 85 runs through 16 games  (4.6 and 5.3 per game) in their respective years, not 43 (2.7/game) as they have in 2012. And just think... we used to call 74 runs a slow start!

While previous springs starts have been disappointing, the Phillies always gave you the feeling that as the weather picked up, so would the bats. A few 80 degree days and a few Jimmy Rollins pop ups might start to clear the fence, a few Placido Polanco line drives would find a gap and roll to the wall, and Ryan Howard would once again mash taters. But there's no reason to believe any of that will happen as the weather changes this year. The Phillies aren't losing close games, or making tough outs. They're getting a 2 spot put up on them in the first inning and then proceeding to flail away at the ball for 8 more innings. No one is innocent:

• Jimmy Rollins - Mr. Catalyst just earned just his 2nd extra base hit of the season last night. He's being out-slugged (just .286) by every starter not named Placido AND three of the 5 starting pitchers. He has 13 strikeouts which puts him on pace to nearly double his career average. The ridiculous number of infield fly balls he produces is probably right in line with his career average. Plus, his range to his right already seems to be slipping.
• Placido Polanco - has only reached base 12 times this season and one of them was a HBP. His ground ball rate is nearly double his fly ball rate. His modest power has disappeared seemingly over night and there's nothing to point at other than his large head and his age.
• John Mayberry Jr. - has been replaced as a starter by a 34 year old with zero power. He's struck out in a third of his at bats, has zero walks, and zero homeruns. He's not a major league baseball player. You can only pull a Jason Werth out of your hat once every decade or so. The Phils are wasting their time by not letting Domonic Brown flail in the majors like Mayberry does.
• Hunter Pence - is pressing at the plate. If anyone on this team should be familiar with playing on a team that can't hit, you'd think it would be Pence having come from the Astros. After a decent start, he's been subpar defensively in right field and is dropping to his knees during his swing. And now he's day to day with a shoulder injury. Yippee!
• Juan Pierre - he has 3 SBs, 1 CS, 1 pick off, and at least one other obvious out that was called safe. He's a two trick pony (singles, and steals) and he's really not that good at one of them.
• Carlos Ruiz - looks about 35 pounds overweight. Seriously, look at him... I can't be the only one who sees this!
• Cliff Lee - suffering his almost yearly "abdominal thing." I think it's stupid to blame this on innings or pitch counts as it's only 3 more balls than he threw in his first start of the year, but Lee still owes me for choking away a lead in the playoffs last year so I'm including him on this list just for the hell of it.
• Kyle Kendrick - he's Kyle Kendrick.
• Joe Blanton - has already burnt his one dominant start of the season. He's got maybe 3 or 4 quality starts left in him, the rest are just innings to be eaten.
• Michael Stutes - fell apart down the stretch last season, is back to doing more of the same.
• Laynce Nix - is all bicep and no baseball power. He could be the best Citizens Bank Park Security Guard in history, but he's not much of a ball player.
• Ty Wigginton - If you play 3 or 4 defensive positions poorly, does that really make you capable of playing those positions? He's really just a notch above a trash can laying on it's side at 3rd base.
• Jim Thome - He's worked more 3 ball counts than almost anyone on the team. Unfortunately, almost all of them have ended in a K. His bat looks slow and his judgement is failing him. He's 101 strikouts away from passing Reggie Jackson's career record so maybe they should just let him play every day and give the fans a record to look forward to.
• Charlie Manuel - loyal to a fault. He marches his guys out there in positions we know they're going to fail partially because that's how he plays the game and partially as a way to stick it to Ruben. "Find me a better hitter, and I'll plug him in instead!"

• Bonus: Both Matt Kemp and Josh Hamilton have more homeruns than the entire Phillies team.  Andre Ethier and Kemp combined have driven in more runs than the Phillies have scored.

So as the Phillies put up a zero runs against a guy who was getting a spot start from the bullpen, and as they look to wrap up their 10th game of scoring 2 or fewer runs, you can't help but to think that all the Chase Utleys and Ryan Howards in the world can't right this ship right now. On the bright side, if you're someone who likes getting to bed early, all these sub 3 hour games sure are nice for you!

So We're A Small Ball Team Now?

I write this as the Phillies launch a pair of HRs off Mark Buehrle and Joe Blanton (Ace?) throws 7 baffling innings against the Miami Marlins, but the sentiment is one that will carry throughout the season: The Phillies are a small ball club now.

I assume that when you google "small ball," the box score and highlights from yesterday's Phillies game show up in the search results. 14 base hits (only three of which were for extra bases), three stolen bases (though Juan Pierre was obviously out and I'll be counting that as a CS when we tally the totals from my prediction post!), and even a dinker off the pitcher that rolled into left field. The Phils nearly doubled their season run total in a single game with the whole team getting on the slap hit train.

I like it for a number of reasons: This pitching staff and defense will only require a handful of runs from the offense to win anyway, your big bats are obviously out of commission right now, and the last two World Series Champions have been the product of timely consistent hitting as much as solid pitching.But most importantly in my eyes, yesterday's game represents a change in Phillies philosophy at the plate. Charlie Manuel commented early in the offseason that he wished for his players to move towards being a better OBP team. The pieces on this team are taylor made for small ball. They have guys who are capable of and have produced in the past .300 AVG seasons, they have smart and quick base runners who can move first to third or scored from second (Jimmy Rollins tonight being the exception), they have slap hitters in Shane Victorino and Juan Pierre who are halfway out of the box when they make contact, and they have light bats whose only chance to remain in the majors is to find gaps in Placido Polanco and Freddy Galvis. Yesterday's single-a-thon raised the team's BA 38 points on the season.

I for one, welcome the new forumla.

15 Bold (and Likely Inaccurate) Phillies Predictions for 2012

1. 94 Wins, 6^th straight NL East title… and it’ll be easier than you think.
2. Juan Pierre will steal 30 bases… and get caught stealing 25 other times. I’m fine with his slap hitting singles style of play, but for a guy who has had over 6300 PA in the leadoff position (85% of all his PAs), you’d think that his propensity for scoring runs would be a little higher. Only three times in his career has he scored more than 100 runs (the last being 2004), despite playing for a handful of playoff teams during that time.  He’s led the league in SBs three times, but led in CS seven including the past two season in the AL. Spring numbers, though limited, indicate that we can expect more of the same and Rollins moving down to 3^rd in the lineup suggests that we may see more than a few failed attempts in the first inning. You’ll see me complaining about Juan Pierre almost as often as I did about Wilson Valdez last year
3. No fans will run on the field at CBP this year! I think we’ve finally learned our lesson and with the exception of a possible rain delay, tarp slip-n-slide attempt (which face it, most of us would love to do!) fans will stay off the field for the entire season. Naturally, we will still be referenced as the gold standard when fans misbehave in a place like Milwaukee.
4. You will find yourself muttering the phrase “I miss Jamie Moyer” at some point in the 2012 season.  Whether it’s because the Rockies’ number 2 guy is lighting the world on fire with his 70-80mph stuff or if Vance Worley and Joe Blanton are just that disappointing, we’ll wish Jamie Moyer was wearing red pinstripes at some point this season.
5. Dom Brown will have twice the PAs in 2012 as he did in 2011. I just read David Murphy tweet that with Juan Pierre batting leadoff, the Phillies could potentially trot out 5 consecutive batters who fail to hit 10 HRs in a season (Ruiz, Galvis, Pitcher, Pierre, Polanco).  By June, power will be at a premium. One injury to anyone in the OF, and I think you have to call up Dom Brown for regular playing time if for no other reason than to add a little spark to what could potentially be a dull lineup.
6. Phillies Fans won’t travel to DC as well as expected. Gas is too expensive. Hell, I had trouble selling the 20 tickets I bought to friends despite usually taking a bus load of 30-40 to NY every year for a Mets game.
7. Cliff Lee is your 2012 NL Cy Young award winner. The obvious selection is Roy Halladay and the sexy pick is Cole Hamels in a contract year but Lee has to enter 2012 with a chip on his shoulder regarding how things fared for him in the playoffs (see: blown lead!). A few sharper games to start the season in 2011 and he would have been closer to the top then too! While you can’t put a ton of value to Spring Training stats, Lee’s 2011 Spring was just as rocky as his first two months of the regular season. If he can carry his 2012 spring into the regular season in the same fashion, he should remain at the top of the conversation.
8. Jim Thome will start more games than Laynce Nix. Neither will start very many games though as to my next point…
9. Ryan Howard will be back by May 7^th. His repaired Achilles was moving along swimmingly when the “setback” occurred. But the “setback” wasn’t an aggravation of the initial injury as some people seem to believe. The infection did not do any further damage to the ruptured tendon, but rather the incision just needed to be cleaned and re-heal. I see no reason to assume that Ryan won’t do the most he possibly can to get back on the field. May 7^th kicks off a string of 14 of 16 games at home which includes the Mets, Padres, and Astros; bottom of the league teams that Ryan Howard can ease himself into the lineup against, even if it’s just in pinch hitting duty for the first few days.
10. Jonathan Papelbon will be very good. Perfect season good? Not likely, but Papelbon should be able to make you forget about Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson. His interleague K/9 of 10+ and K/BB of 4.82 are better than his AL numbers and in recent years he’s shown improved control and strikeout ability. A move from the AL East to the NL East should be a walk in the park.
11. Cole Hamels signs a contract extension for 6 years, $130M by May 1^st.  Yesterday’s Matt Cain extension set the bar and while I think Cole Hamels is a better pitcher than Cain, I'm not sure he'll split hairs over a few pennies. 6-$127 for Cain, 6-$130 for Hamels seems more than fair.
12. The Phillies will have 7 All-Stars representing the team in Kansas City this year. Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Papelbon will all be there as will Pence, Victorino, and Rollins. Don’t worry, I still dislike Jimmy Rollins, but I have a feeling he’ll start the season on one of his hot streaks and milk it into a few All Star votes.
13. Not really going out on a limb here, but… someone retires at the end of the season. Candidates include Jim Thome, Placido Polanco, and Jose Contreras. I might even say that Contreras doesn’t even make it through the full season.
14. Freddy Galvis > Tyler Pastornicky. The Atlanta Braves will also feature an inexperienced, light hitting rookie in their middle infield to start the season. I think it’ll be the gap power and defense that will separate Galvis. Neither are superstars, but Galvis should fit his shoes a little better than the Braves SS. Also, Galvis > Eric Bruntlett, Tad Iguchi, Miguel Cairo, Wilson Valdez, Michael Martinez, Pete Orr, etc/all.
15. Chase Utley’s line at the end of the season: 16 HRs, 77 RBI, 68 Runs, .281 AVG.  Two thirds of a season of Utley will still be better than about two thirds of Majoe League 2^nd Basemen.