The Prediction Post

So that we can all sit back and laugh about how ridiculously off-base I was when the season started, I've decided to put my wild predictions for the 2011 season in print. For argument's sake, I'm going to try to avoid some of the more obvious picks...

AL MVP - Mark Teixeira
I made the same prediction last year, though I didn't have a blog to share with the world. But the fact of the matter is that year after year he's an absolute monster in the 2nd half of the season and has been for years. I'm hedging my bets and saying that he manages a "decent" first few months and rolls on to the best season of his career. The popular pick this year in the AL is Adrian Gonzalez, but I think that shoulder injury is going to play a bigger role than a lot of other people think.

NL MVP - Carlos Gonzalez
All the talk this offseason has been about Troy Tulowitzki and while he had a tremendous final 6 weeks of the regular season, he wasn't even the best player on his own team. That title goes to Gonzalez. Cargo is the rare 30-30 potential guy with power to all fields who hits for average and plays Gold Glove caliber defense. He was arguably the best 5 tool player in the game right now and I think if he comes close to a repeat performance and his Rockies stay in the playoff hunt, he'll be looking at an MVP trophy come seasons end.

AL Cy Young - Jon Lester
There are a handful of guys who could win this award, but none of the others play for the Red Sox. The fact remains that voters love the W column and Lester is going to get a bunch of them playing behind the Boston offense. If he keeps his K's up in the 200s and can sneak his ERA into the low 3's, 21 wins should be well within his grasp.

NL Cy Young - Roy Halladay
This one is the easy pick after seeing his nearest competition go down in the spring in Adam Wainwright. But the fact of the matter is I've been calling Roy Halladay the best pitcher in baseball since like 2005. He's a horse and he almost always exceed expectations. I'd go as far as to suggest that his stat line even improves from last season.

AL Rookie of the Year - Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Ichiro-Light is how I would classify him. He has that same slap and run style of play that many Japanese ball players have and he rode it to a batting title last season. His nearest competition for the ROY might be Jeremy Hellickson and Kyle Drabek (Only two rookies in an AL starting rotation), but both of them will go through some growing pains. Nishioka has the benefit of having played high level professional ball for a few years and should burst right onto the scene.

NL Rookie of the Year - Brandon Belt
Admittedly, I don't know a ton about this guy. But he won the Giants starting first base job out of camp and he's a huge prospect for them. His nearest competition seems to be Freddie Freeman of ATL and Aroldis Chapman from the Reds. Chapman will be a setup man and I don't care how hard he throws, you can't give the award to a setup guy. Freeman seems to be of the same mold as Belt so I'm really just taking the Giants first baseman on a hunch.

AL Comeback Player - Manny Ramirez
The MLB Network 30 Clubs in 30 Days special with the Rays gave me a real good feeling about Manny. He seems to be rejuvenated and looking to prove himself the same way he had to when he went to LA. It's a shot in the dark, but I think he has one more year of 25 HRs and 95 RBI left in him.

NL Comeback Player - Jimmy Rollins
It's starting to seem doubtful that he starts the season as the Phillies leadoff hitter. While that might sound like a demotion to some people, his role in the #3 spot is going to be far more valuable. He won't go 30-30-30 again, but he'll push the BA numbers back a little closer to elite SS level. The fact that he's in a contract year should motivate him to lay off a few more 1st pitch breaking balls and hone his skills for one more contract at age 32.

AL Disappointment - Jose Bautista
The homeruns may not have been a total fluke, but pitchers will be wise to him this year. Every prediction I've seen still puts him in the 35-100-100 class and I don't think he's going to reach any of those milestones this year.

NL Disappointment - Prince Fielder
I've often seen him as an all or nothing kind of guy, even though he hasn't really played that way. Well this year I think he will. You just can't carry a frame like a beach-ball and be a good first baseman for very long. Look for a Mo Vaughn-esque decline any day now.

Hitters to watch:
Gordon Beckham - huge bounce back from sophomore slump.
Shin-Soo Choo - My love affair with him is well documented. 20-20-.290 AVG is a lock.
Jay Bruce - Finally becoming the player he was supposed to be.
Billy Butler - This is the year the power finally matches the plate discipline.
Jed Lowrie - Marco Scutaro is one stubbed toe away from being a utility infielder again.

Pitchers to watch:
Erik Bedard - don't call it a comeback!
Brandon Beachy - has the 2nd highest ceiling of the Braves starting 5.
Brian Matusz - a year older and a much better lineup behind him.
Gio Gonzalez - said to have the best stuff in the A's rotation
Daniel Hudson - His stretch run in 2010 was no fluke

AL East:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. NY Yankees
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Tampa Bay Rays

AL West:
1. Texas Rangers
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Los Angeles Angels
4. Seattle Mariners

AL Central:
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians

NL East:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Florida Marlins
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets

NL West:
1. Colorodo Rockies
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. San Diego Padres
5. Arizona Diamondbacks

NL Central:
1. St Louis Cardinals
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Houston Astros
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Chicago Cubs

Wild Card Round:
Red Sox over Twins
Yankees over Rangers
Phillies over Cardinals
Braves over Rockies

Championship Series:
Red Sox over Yankees in7
Phillies over Braves in 5

World Series:
Red Sox over Phillies in 6

I don't get it... Again

Seems like only yesterday I was scratching my head wondering why the Phillies picked up Luis Castillo in the first place... now I'm wondering why they dropped him.

First, I don't understand the sudden love affair people have with Wilson Valdez. He started 88 games for the Phillies last season and performed admirably as a defensive replacement for Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Placido Polanco. But that's where his usefulness ends. He's a 32 year old AAAA player who held his own on defense, but grounded into 20 double plays into in 333 ABs. How bad is that? Once every 16 at bats he was responsible for 2 outs. Take into account the 86 times he was lucky enough to get a hit, and once every 12 at bats where he recorded an out, he actually created two outs! And how bad is that? Pablo Sandoval led the league with 26 GIDPs, but in 563 ABs. Once every 21 ABs for those without a calculator. Give Valdez that many ABs and he grounds into 34 double plays. THIRTY FOUR! That would be #3 on the All Time Single season list... (not that he'll ever get 500+ ABs) What I'm trying to say is he's not a good every day player. The value of having a Wilson Valdez on your team is in being able to use him a couple times a week at 2nd, 3rd and Short. He has the defensive range and can spell someone for a day. But he offers nothing else.

And why not Luis Castillo? Aside from no-showing his 1st day, he did nothing wrong. He was 0 for his first 8, but then started to string together hits. His fielding was never tested, and he was 1 for 1 on steal attempts. He's 34 (only two years older than the golden boy above), and has shown the ability to hit for average AND swipe a few bags. It seems to me as though the Phillies completely wasted his time this spring. To bring the guy in on a minor league contract that was only guaranteed if he made the roster, and then cut him loose for seemingly no reason is a slap in the face. It's almost as if Ruben Amaro, in his ultimate smugness, snagged him off the waiver wire just so no one else could have him for a few weeks. The only other reasonable explanation is that Ruben knows something we don't (trade? Utley is feeling much better?)

As for the other dishrags that will be spending time plugging the hole as 2nd Base, Pete Orr and Michael Martinez aren't exactly names that make one do a double take. Martinez is a Rule 5 guy that the Phillies swiped from the Nationals in the draft. He's hit for decent average in the minors the past few years but done little otherwise. To keep him, naturally, he has to stay on the 25 Man Roster. So either they see something I don't or he has pictures of Charlie Manuel in a compromising position. Pete Orr is a 2B/OF type much in the same mold. I could throw a rock from my front porch and hit two guys in the neighborhood with the same skills as Pete Orr. But both of these guys are now going to make the squad over Delwyn Young and Josh Barfield; two of the hottest hitters of the spring and both young guys with substantial major league playing time. Again, a head scratcher...

It doesn't get much better with pitching... Michael Stutes has been amazing this pre-season, and both Mike Zagurski and Scott Mathieson were impressive early. The three of them will be sent down in favor of Danys Baez, David Herndon, and Antonio Bastardo. Baez is about as useful as a paperweight, Herndon is a mop up guy, and Bastardo make me yawn and say "meh." Guys like those three fall out of trees in the majors anymore. But Stutes, Zagurski, and Mathieson are young fireballers who have each had something to overcome and worked their tails off for spots. Who has more fire that can help propel the Phillies to another World Series? Danys Baez and his career $40M worth of stolen paychecks, or Scott Mathieson and his two Tommy John surgeries and desperate attempt to sniff big league glory?

I'm not as down on the squad as this post seems, but I sure would like to be a fly on the wall when these decisions are made. Still looking at 97 wins and a division title.

Exhibition Game 1: 8-5 Phillies over Pirates

Free tickets from a co-worker? Sure, why not. So I ventured down to the old ball park with the ball & chain and her mom for what ended up being a "Top 5 Coldest Phillies Game" I've ever been to. The atmosphere was about what could be expected from a crowd of One Third Boy/Girl Scouts, One Third Drunk College Kids, and One Third die hards with nothing better to do on a Tuesday night. But of course, I have plenty of observations of my own...

• The Red Phanatic... I don't really get it. Aside from the "Paint the Town Red" promotion, it seems kind of out of place.

• Beers went up... I think. As I recall, your standard Miller and Coors lights were $6.75 last year and Aluminum Budweiser products were $7.00 each. They're $.50 higher now. I know the cost of a heater definitely went up! Your welcome, Cliff Lee!

• The new scoreboard is glorious. It's laughable how much better it is. The crew has a few kinks to work out (including misspelling the team name as "Pillies" once), but I think it's a huge upgrade. It was hard to watch the game with so much going on on the scoreboard.

•  Seeing the stadium after a nice off-season bath was refreshing. No gum stuck to Ashburn Alley and no urine on the bathroom floor... at least until the 6th inning.

• The Phils looked pretty runner-ish last night. They didn't net too many SBs, but they sure made Ross Ohlendorf work. Rollins, Victorino, and Castillo will all need to swipe some bags for this team to be successful in 2011.

• Ben Francisco is dialed in right now. I'm one who believes in the healing powers of one Charlie Manuel. His ability to fix swings is well documented, so don't be terribly surprised when Jayson Werth is an afterthought by the end of June.

• Oh, Hi Chooch!

 

• I would say that this year's crop of Phillies Ball Girls is not the best. I saw a few bad fielding errors and when they played the famous "...Will Be Ejected!" video, there wasn't a looker in the bunch. 

• The place cleared out in the 6th when most of the Phillies starters left the game. They advertised 42,000+ in attendance which still doesn't surprise me.

• Dare I say that one of my predictions is looking promising? All throughout the spring, the Phillies have been looking like a small ball team. Last night was no exception with RBI via single aplenty.

• If a Bell rings and no one is there to hear it, does it really make a sound?

Phils Spicing Up the On-Deck Series

First, that's a pretty sweet SI cover. Hard to believe that up until about 3 years ago, the Phillies had only graced the cover of SI about a half dozen times. I'm struggling to find the info to back that up so you'll just have to take my word on it... 2nd year in a row for Doc.

Anyway, I'm surprisingly excited about tonight's game. A co-worker handed me some pretty nice seats for free. If you don't have a set of your own, a cool 89 cents should get you in the gate. What makes this on-deck series so special?

"The Phillies On-Deck Series features a spring-training like atmosphere filled with plenty of prizes and surprises! Both games include a mini-fan appreciation day, unique player and alumni interactions with fans, merchandise specials, entertainment, and more!"

I don't really know what that means, though it's been suggested that certain active and former players may be meandering around the concourse doing a little meet and greet with the fans. I wouldn't mind rubbing elbows with a few Phils while standing in line for crab fries.

Other things to look forward to:

• Roy Oswalt throws today. I'd expect to see him stretched out for about 5 innings.
• Luis Castillo will almost certainly see significant playing time.
• New video board and 800+ new TVs.
• New food stands.
• Complete remodel to the Majestic Store.

44 Degrees an Sunny for the first pitch. Not exactly the shorts and t-shirt weather we had for Opening Day in DC last year, but I've had a blast at games with far worse weather (see: Game 3, 2008 World Series). I realize I'm psyching myself up for a meaningless game, but unless one of you wants to send your favorite blogger to Friday's game on your dime, I'm going to have to settle for meaningless baseball this week!

Lunch Time Link Dump

 It's so nice to be on the home stretch of Spring Training. As I type this, the Phils are wrapping up their final Grapefruit League game and hopping a plane north where they'll face the Pirates for a couple of exhibition games. I have tickets for tomorrow night, so I'll be sure to give a full scouting report as to how Michael Stutes and Luis Castillo are looking! Tickets can be had for less than $1 each, haha!

• A ridiculous article I read over the weekend that seems to suggest Joey Votto held the Reds down last year. Okay, so it doesn't say that directly, but it does endlessly point out the fact that the Yankees had a better win percentage with Brett Gardner in the lineup than Derek Jeter, and that Josh Hamilton had a worse winning percentage than David Murphy and a whole host of his teammates. I think the article lacks any credibility at all and I really expect better from the NY Times. To Create a Winner, You Have to Find Winners? No, you just have to find good baseball players. All the stats in the world aren't going to convince me that Carlos Pena's .196 batting average and 158 strikeouts were somehow related to the fact that his team was 22 games over .500 with him in the lineup.

• The Jayson Werth Baseball card conspiracy. It's a little humorous, but also incredibly common. It's common knowledge that Topps has become lazy with their card styling. And they get away with it because of the stupid agreement between MLB and Topps that basically eliminates any competition in the collectible card Market.Upper Deck still produces cards through an agreement with the MLBPA, but they can't include any team or league logos. It's pretty much ruined baseball cards for me in the past few years. Give me the days of ridiculous baseball poses.

• Speaking of cards... While looking for examples of other crappy cards, I found a whole blog dedicated to funny cards. 1) Why were eyeglasses go ridiculous looking in the 80s-90s? 2) If you have a really ridiculous name like "Dick Harter," why don't you change it before going into a profession that is going to put your name all over thousands of pieces of cardboard?

• Courtesy of ThatBallsOuttaHere.com, I found another list that our great city of Philadelphia made it on: Angriest Cities. We come in at a disappointing #8 which doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me... How can we be the worst city in the country, but not angry? St. Petersburg is full of miserable old retired people, Las Vegas is full of dejected gamblers, and Dallas just watched their tax dollars fund a billion dollar football stadium... so none of them should count! We were doing angry before it was cool!

• The Buck Showalter interview in Men's Journal that broke last week was fantastic. Not only did he do a great job as the O's manager down the stretch last season, but now he has the audacity to call out Derek Jeter for jumping away from inside pitches and Theo Epstein for just tossing buckets of money at free agents and acting as if he's a baseball genius in the process. Nice work, Buck. We might have a job for you in 2 years!

• A new Bill James book that I'm sure is way too complex for most of us to wrap our minds around, but worth a read anyway. From what I've read, it sounds like it's mostly a collection of writings otherwise available on his website for individual purchase.

• A list of some of the more anonymous starters of the past decade. Some of these guys career lines make me think I still have a chance at playing in the bigs... you know, if this whole blogging thing doesn't take off...

• A new batch of guys you should be following on Twitter:
• @mlbdepthcharts - Up to date depth chart and roster info for all baseball teams.
• @PeteOrrFacts - A series of ridiculous, mostly false, facts about the Phillies utility guy.
• @BestPhilsBlogs - A compendium of retweets from some of the best local Phillies blogs. If you don't want to follow everyone individually, this is the one you need.
• @MatthewBerryTMR - The Talented Mr. Roto from ESPN whose Podcast has been entertaining me since January.
• @SultanofStat - Another ESPN fantasy guy with some good tidbits of info.
• @petzrawr - Former contributor at TheFightins.com is just as entertaining on twitter.
• @closernews - Exactly what it says. Up to the minute info on all MLB closer situations.