Victorino for MVP???

A "celebrity guest" post today while I'm out of town. Despite the uncanny resemblance, I can assure you that Matt Stairs has not joined our ranks. No, instead, today's post comes to you from one of the foremost Jimmy Rollins experts on the planet (perhaps the only one): Jeff Bennett (no, not the former Braves pitcher either). He enjoys painting his head like a baseball, screaming at anyone who swings at the first pitch, and long walks through the CBP parking lot. Most importantly, ladies... he's single!

Being a sports fan you always want your favorite team to win any award they possibly can.  For the Phillies this year it would be nice for them to win the World Series, Halladay or Lee win the NL Cy Young and Worley to win the ROY.  But what about the NL MVP????  Does Shane Victorino have a shot?

Victorino’s numbers are pretty impressive this year.  According to Baseball-Reference.com  Victorino is batting 0.308 with 21 doubles, 14 triples, 15 home runs, 53 RBIs, 79 runs, and 17 stolen bases this year.  He has a shot of having career highs in most of these categories.  But how does he stand up to the other league leaders in the NL?

Well first let’s compare Victorino with last year’s NL MVP Joey Votto.  This year Votto is batting 0.323, with 29 doubles, 26 home runs, and 87 RBIs, while leading the NL with an OBP of 0.438.  These numbers are defiantly good but what is hurting Votto this year is the fact that the Reds are 13.5 games out of first place and 12.5 games out in the Wild Card.   Yes Pujols won MVP in 2008 while the Cardinals didn’t make the post season and Howard won MVP in 2006 while the Phillies didn’t make it either.  But both of those teams were still had a chance up until the last week or so of those seasons.  So I’m going to say Joey Votto will not win NL MVP even though he is having a very good season at the dish.

Same could be said about LA Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp.  The Dodgers are 19 games out of first place and 16 out in the Wild Card.  Kemp is batting 0.319 with 26 doubles, 100 RBIs, 35 stolen bases, and leads the NL with 31 home runs.  He is right up there with the league leaders in OBP, SLG, and OPS. 

Let’s take a look at Prince Fielder.  He is batting 0.295, with 30 doubles, 29 home runs, and leads the NL with 102 RBIs.  These are some great numbers to have but Fielder isn’t even the best player on his own team this year.  Enter Ryan Braun.  This year Braun is batting 0.334 with 35 doubles, 25 home runs, 88 RBIs, and 30 stolen bases.  He leads the NL with 92 runs, 0.593 SLG%, and 0.999 OPS.  The Brewers are up 10.5 games in the Central and look to lock up a postseason bid soon.

I’m a huge fan of the Phillies and would love to see Victorino or another Phillies player win the NL MVP.  But the numbers don’t lie Victorino is going to have to have a huge September to keep his name in the MVP discussion.  Without a doubt this year with the numerous amounts of injuries to the Phillies and not taking anything away from the great pitching, but Shane Victorino is defiantly the Phillies MVP of 2011.

Victorino up, ______ down?

After a handful of rehab appearances and a Reading Phillies game in which he went 0-4, Shane Victorino was scratched from this morning's AA Game and appears to be en-route to Pittsburgh to meet up with the big club. As much as a give Victorino a hard time (dude takes the worst routes to fly balls of any CF I've ever seen win a Gold Glove), he offers a set of skills that no one else on this team is really capable of replicating. 20HR/40SB isn't really out of the question for him, and unlike a lot of guys in that category, he can mix in a .285+ AVG. He was arguably on that pace to start the season. And more importantly, the Phillies are 26-13 with him and only 8-9 without.

But less we forget that Victorino's stint on the DL is what resulted in the surprise call up of Domonic Brown. So who loses their job when Victorino comes back?

• Domonic Brown: He's the obvious choice because he has the most options left and Charlie really wanted to see him get more ABs in the minors before coming up in the first place. But he's been hitting the ball well, even some hard hit balls against lefties. Were it not for what could possibly be the play of the year by Laynce Nix in yesterday's game, Brown would have been a hero.

• John Mayberry Jr: Another guy with options in the minors, but he's really your best bench option at the moment and plays a pretty solid defensive outfield. The long legs really get him moving to the ball. His OPS is a bit low for a guy his size, which have kept his speed numbers down, but with Gload nursing a hip, Mayberry is also one of your only options to spell Ryan Howard at 1B.Which brings me to...

• Ross Gload hits the DL: This is a solution that saves everyone's job. Gload has been limited as of late due to a tear in his right hip which is manageable, but will likely require surgery in the offseason. Chase Utley played through a similar injury... but he's Chase Utley. They do not need Gload to play through an injury like this and quite frankly, his doing so takes a spot away from a player who could probably do more to help the team. He's said in interviews that the pain won't land him on the DL, but it probably should. Give him a few weeks off, maybe the hip feels a little better, and he's useful around the AS Break.

• Mike Zagurski: The Phillies currently carry 3 LHP on the active roster which is a little strange. My best guess is that Zagurski was called up temporarily for the last series and will be sent down shortly anyway. But it's doubtful that the Phillies go with only 11 pitchers right now so the Zagurski spot will be filled by a guy like Scott Mathieson once again. 

• Michael Martinez: This is the solution that makes the most sense to me. He's a Rule5 guy and in order to get rid of him, the Phillies would have to offer him back to the Nationals. But the Nationals have a pretty crowded outfield of their own and there's still a chance they wouldn't be interested in him. Martinez's only saving grace is that he's capable of playing the infield as well as the outfield. But quite frankly, I think Charlie can manage resting players just fine with one utility infielder in Valdez, and by plugging guys like Gload and Mayberry on the corners. If you bounced a ping pong ball around a SEPTA bus, chances are you would hit a guy with the kind of skills of Michael Martinez. Zero power and zero speed aren't good attributes to mix with a down offense. 

Your 2011 Phillies: Fantasy Baseball Outlook Part 1

C - Carlos Ruiz:
The guy had the best year of his career in 2010 and is priced so cheap in most leagues that he's tempting to snatch up. But as impressive as his clutch performance has been, it doesn't earn you extra fantasy points. Single digit HRs and 50 RBI are about the going rate for any catcher with a full time job. Chooch is certainly capable of repeating his 2010, but that still doesn't make him a viable option in anything but the deepest of mixed or NL only leagues.

1B - Ryan Howard
I've gone back and forth almost a dozen times on my Ryan Howard opinion. First Base is an incredibly deep position where the difference between Adrian Gonzalez in round 2 and Justin Morneau in round 7 might not be all that much. But I have a feeling that Ryan Howard is about to find his stroke once again. His strikeout rate has dropped significantly over the last two years and his spring numbers suggest that he's putting good wood on the ball. Few of his counterparts work as hard as Howard at improving his flaws and as a guy who has been dropping down draft boards, 40 HR and 125+ RBI are starting to look like a real bargain after the 2nd round.

2B - Chase Utley
A month ago, he's the 2nd best second baseman in the game and being drafted in the first round. Now, I won him in an auction league for $12 last Friday. The knee is worrisome, but at middle infield spots, there isn't a plethora of other options better than Chase. It's still looking as if surgery is the less likely scenario and I'll predict 130 games for Chase this year. What can he possibly do in 130 games? Well in 2007 he hit .332, had 22 HRs, and 100+ Runs and RBI. A one legged Chase Utley is still capable of elite numbers for his position. While he should fall down a few rounds, he's worth it if his value is deflated enough.

SS - Jimmy Rollins
2007 Jimmy Rollins is dead. He'll never be a 30/30 guy again, and he'll never knock you in 90 runs. While some owners are likely to take a shot at him because the potential is still there for him to perform like a Jose Reyes, I'm going to tell you not to. You'll only be disappointed. While Jimmy has been regressing, the rest of the world has caught up to him. Shortstop isn't an incredibly deep position, but there are a handful of guys out there who will give you 75 R, 20SB, and 15HR which is about Jimmy's upside. Pass on Rollins and take a risk on Starlin Castro instead.

3B - Placido Polanco
Possibly the most scarce position in fantasy baseball this year, third basemen are hard to come by. After Longoria/Zimmerman/Arod/Bautista fall off the board, your options plummet. That still doesn't make Polanco a viable one. His position eligibility at 2nd base boosts his value as a middle infielder and his elbow injury isn't really anything that should concern you, but he is what he is. I love him on my real team, but wouldn't want him clogging up my fantasy team.

LF - Raul Ibanez
I'm one of the few guys who see some value here. Raul has a history of streaky behavior while in a Phillies uniform. But one thing that has been prevalent throughout his career is that a hot spring = a fast start to the season. Guess what? Raul is hitting the ball well this spring. Draft him and ride the wave until his first epic slump occurs. At the end of the year he'll put up the usual 25 HR, 85 RBI, .275 batting average but it will most certainly have its ups and downs.

CF - Shane Victorino
Power/Speed guys are hard to come by. But speed guys are becoming more prevalent. I'm not quite sure which category to put Victorino. 18HRs with 34SBs in 2010 puts him in the first category so if you think he's capable of a repeat, go for it. I still think he's a notch below guys like Andrew McCutchen and Shin-Soo-Choo, but if he can hit .280 and put up similar numbers to last year, he's worth a lot more than you might think.

RF - Ben Francisco
For the sake of this post, I'm assuming Ben Francisco is your starting RF for the entire season. He's likely going for dirt cheap in just about every league. While he's never had one particular year that jumps out at you, his 162 game career averages aren't all that bad. 18 HR and 12 SB are easily attainable, and 65 RBI are a low estimate. He'll likely start the season batting 5th which should give him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. Comparable to Jayson Werth? No, probably not. But most of the same tools are there. In a deep league, he's worth a flier.