So that we can all sit back and laugh about how ridiculously off-base I was when the season started, I've decided to put my wild predictions for the 2011 season in print. For argument's sake, I'm going to try to avoid some of the more obvious picks...
AL MVP - Mark Teixeira
I made the same prediction last year, though I didn't have a blog to share with the world. But the fact of the matter is that year after year he's an absolute monster in the 2nd half of the season and has been for years. I'm hedging my bets and saying that he manages a "decent" first few months and rolls on to the best season of his career. The popular pick this year in the AL is Adrian Gonzalez, but I think that shoulder injury is going to play a bigger role than a lot of other people think.
NL MVP - Carlos Gonzalez
All the talk this offseason has been about Troy Tulowitzki and while he had a tremendous final 6 weeks of the regular season, he wasn't even the best player on his own team. That title goes to Gonzalez. Cargo is the rare 30-30 potential guy with power to all fields who hits for average and plays Gold Glove caliber defense. He was arguably the best 5 tool player in the game right now and I think if he comes close to a repeat performance and his Rockies stay in the playoff hunt, he'll be looking at an MVP trophy come seasons end.
AL Cy Young - Jon Lester
There are a handful of guys who could win this award, but none of the others play for the Red Sox. The fact remains that voters love the W column and Lester is going to get a bunch of them playing behind the Boston offense. If he keeps his K's up in the 200s and can sneak his ERA into the low 3's, 21 wins should be well within his grasp.
NL Cy Young - Roy Halladay
This one is the easy pick after seeing his nearest competition go down in the spring in Adam Wainwright. But the fact of the matter is I've been calling Roy Halladay the best pitcher in baseball since like 2005. He's a horse and he almost always exceed expectations. I'd go as far as to suggest that his stat line even improves from last season.
AL Rookie of the Year - Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Ichiro-Light is how I would classify him. He has that same slap and run style of play that many Japanese ball players have and he rode it to a batting title last season. His nearest competition for the ROY might be Jeremy Hellickson and Kyle Drabek (Only two rookies in an AL starting rotation), but both of them will go through some growing pains. Nishioka has the benefit of having played high level professional ball for a few years and should burst right onto the scene.
NL Rookie of the Year - Brandon Belt
Admittedly, I don't know a ton about this guy. But he won the Giants starting first base job out of camp and he's a huge prospect for them. His nearest competition seems to be Freddie Freeman of ATL and Aroldis Chapman from the Reds. Chapman will be a setup man and I don't care how hard he throws, you can't give the award to a setup guy. Freeman seems to be of the same mold as Belt so I'm really just taking the Giants first baseman on a hunch.
AL Comeback Player - Manny Ramirez
The MLB Network 30 Clubs in 30 Days special with the Rays gave me a real good feeling about Manny. He seems to be rejuvenated and looking to prove himself the same way he had to when he went to LA. It's a shot in the dark, but I think he has one more year of 25 HRs and 95 RBI left in him.
NL Comeback Player - Jimmy Rollins
It's starting to seem doubtful that he starts the season as the Phillies leadoff hitter. While that might sound like a demotion to some people, his role in the #3 spot is going to be far more valuable. He won't go 30-30-30 again, but he'll push the BA numbers back a little closer to elite SS level. The fact that he's in a contract year should motivate him to lay off a few more 1st pitch breaking balls and hone his skills for one more contract at age 32.
AL Disappointment - Jose Bautista
The homeruns may not have been a total fluke, but pitchers will be wise to him this year. Every prediction I've seen still puts him in the 35-100-100 class and I don't think he's going to reach any of those milestones this year.
NL Disappointment - Prince Fielder
I've often seen him as an all or nothing kind of guy, even though he hasn't really played that way. Well this year I think he will. You just can't carry a frame like a beach-ball and be a good first baseman for very long. Look for a Mo Vaughn-esque decline any day now.
Hitters to watch:
Gordon Beckham - huge bounce back from sophomore slump.
Shin-Soo Choo - My love affair with him is well documented. 20-20-.290 AVG is a lock.
Jay Bruce - Finally becoming the player he was supposed to be.
Billy Butler - This is the year the power finally matches the plate discipline.
Jed Lowrie - Marco Scutaro is one stubbed toe away from being a utility infielder again.
Pitchers to watch:
Erik Bedard - don't call it a comeback!
Brandon Beachy - has the 2nd highest ceiling of the Braves starting 5.
Brian Matusz - a year older and a much better lineup behind him.
Gio Gonzalez - said to have the best stuff in the A's rotation
Daniel Hudson - His stretch run in 2010 was no fluke
AL East:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. NY Yankees
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Tampa Bay Rays
AL West:
1. Texas Rangers
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Los Angeles Angels
4. Seattle Mariners
AL Central:
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians
NL East:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Florida Marlins
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets
NL West:
1. Colorodo Rockies
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. San Diego Padres
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
NL Central:
1. St Louis Cardinals
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Houston Astros
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Chicago Cubs
Wild Card Round:
Red Sox over Twins
Yankees over Rangers
Phillies over Cardinals
Braves over Rockies
Championship Series:
Red Sox over Yankees in7
Phillies over Braves in 5
World Series:
Red Sox over Phillies in 6
March 31, 2011
March 30, 2011
I don't get it... Again
Seems like only yesterday I was scratching my head wondering why the Phillies picked up Luis Castillo in the first place... now I'm wondering why they dropped him.
First, I don't understand the sudden love affair people have with Wilson Valdez. He started 88 games for the Phillies last season and performed admirably as a defensive replacement for Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Placido Polanco. But that's where his usefulness ends. He's a 32 year old AAAA player who held his own on defense, but grounded into 20 double plays into in 333 ABs. How bad is that? Once every 16 at bats he was responsible for 2 outs. Take into account the 86 times he was lucky enough to get a hit, and once every 12 at bats where he recorded an out, he actually created two outs! And how bad is that? Pablo Sandoval led the league with 26 GIDPs, but in 563 ABs. Once every 21 ABs for those without a calculator. Give Valdez that many ABs and he grounds into 34 double plays. THIRTY FOUR! That would be #3 on the All Time Single season list... (not that he'll ever get 500+ ABs) What I'm trying to say is he's not a good every day player. The value of having a Wilson Valdez on your team is in being able to use him a couple times a week at 2nd, 3rd and Short. He has the defensive range and can spell someone for a day. But he offers nothing else.
And why not Luis Castillo? Aside from no-showing his 1st day, he did nothing wrong. He was 0 for his first 8, but then started to string together hits. His fielding was never tested, and he was 1 for 1 on steal attempts. He's 34 (only two years older than the golden boy above), and has shown the ability to hit for average AND swipe a few bags. It seems to me as though the Phillies completely wasted his time this spring. To bring the guy in on a minor league contract that was only guaranteed if he made the roster, and then cut him loose for seemingly no reason is a slap in the face. It's almost as if Ruben Amaro, in his ultimate smugness, snagged him off the waiver wire just so no one else could have him for a few weeks. The only other reasonable explanation is that Ruben knows something we don't (trade? Utley is feeling much better?)
As for the other dishrags that will be spending time plugging the hole as 2nd Base, Pete Orr and Michael Martinez aren't exactly names that make one do a double take. Martinez is a Rule 5 guy that the Phillies swiped from the Nationals in the draft. He's hit for decent average in the minors the past few years but done little otherwise. To keep him, naturally, he has to stay on the 25 Man Roster. So either they see something I don't or he has pictures of Charlie Manuel in a compromising position. Pete Orr is a 2B/OF type much in the same mold. I could throw a rock from my front porch and hit two guys in the neighborhood with the same skills as Pete Orr. But both of these guys are now going to make the squad over Delwyn Young and Josh Barfield; two of the hottest hitters of the spring and both young guys with substantial major league playing time. Again, a head scratcher...
It doesn't get much better with pitching... Michael Stutes has been amazing this pre-season, and both Mike Zagurski and Scott Mathieson were impressive early. The three of them will be sent down in favor of Danys Baez, David Herndon, and Antonio Bastardo. Baez is about as useful as a paperweight, Herndon is a mop up guy, and Bastardo make me yawn and say "meh." Guys like those three fall out of trees in the majors anymore. But Stutes, Zagurski, and Mathieson are young fireballers who have each had something to overcome and worked their tails off for spots. Who has more fire that can help propel the Phillies to another World Series? Danys Baez and his career $40M worth of stolen paychecks, or Scott Mathieson and his two Tommy John surgeries and desperate attempt to sniff big league glory?
I'm not as down on the squad as this post seems, but I sure would like to be a fly on the wall when these decisions are made. Still looking at 97 wins and a division title.
First, I don't understand the sudden love affair people have with Wilson Valdez. He started 88 games for the Phillies last season and performed admirably as a defensive replacement for Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Placido Polanco. But that's where his usefulness ends. He's a 32 year old AAAA player who held his own on defense, but grounded into 20 double plays into in 333 ABs. How bad is that? Once every 16 at bats he was responsible for 2 outs. Take into account the 86 times he was lucky enough to get a hit, and once every 12 at bats where he recorded an out, he actually created two outs! And how bad is that? Pablo Sandoval led the league with 26 GIDPs, but in 563 ABs. Once every 21 ABs for those without a calculator. Give Valdez that many ABs and he grounds into 34 double plays. THIRTY FOUR! That would be #3 on the All Time Single season list... (not that he'll ever get 500+ ABs) What I'm trying to say is he's not a good every day player. The value of having a Wilson Valdez on your team is in being able to use him a couple times a week at 2nd, 3rd and Short. He has the defensive range and can spell someone for a day. But he offers nothing else.
And why not Luis Castillo? Aside from no-showing his 1st day, he did nothing wrong. He was 0 for his first 8, but then started to string together hits. His fielding was never tested, and he was 1 for 1 on steal attempts. He's 34 (only two years older than the golden boy above), and has shown the ability to hit for average AND swipe a few bags. It seems to me as though the Phillies completely wasted his time this spring. To bring the guy in on a minor league contract that was only guaranteed if he made the roster, and then cut him loose for seemingly no reason is a slap in the face. It's almost as if Ruben Amaro, in his ultimate smugness, snagged him off the waiver wire just so no one else could have him for a few weeks. The only other reasonable explanation is that Ruben knows something we don't (trade? Utley is feeling much better?)
As for the other dishrags that will be spending time plugging the hole as 2nd Base, Pete Orr and Michael Martinez aren't exactly names that make one do a double take. Martinez is a Rule 5 guy that the Phillies swiped from the Nationals in the draft. He's hit for decent average in the minors the past few years but done little otherwise. To keep him, naturally, he has to stay on the 25 Man Roster. So either they see something I don't or he has pictures of Charlie Manuel in a compromising position. Pete Orr is a 2B/OF type much in the same mold. I could throw a rock from my front porch and hit two guys in the neighborhood with the same skills as Pete Orr. But both of these guys are now going to make the squad over Delwyn Young and Josh Barfield; two of the hottest hitters of the spring and both young guys with substantial major league playing time. Again, a head scratcher...
It doesn't get much better with pitching... Michael Stutes has been amazing this pre-season, and both Mike Zagurski and Scott Mathieson were impressive early. The three of them will be sent down in favor of Danys Baez, David Herndon, and Antonio Bastardo. Baez is about as useful as a paperweight, Herndon is a mop up guy, and Bastardo make me yawn and say "meh." Guys like those three fall out of trees in the majors anymore. But Stutes, Zagurski, and Mathieson are young fireballers who have each had something to overcome and worked their tails off for spots. Who has more fire that can help propel the Phillies to another World Series? Danys Baez and his career $40M worth of stolen paychecks, or Scott Mathieson and his two Tommy John surgeries and desperate attempt to sniff big league glory?
I'm not as down on the squad as this post seems, but I sure would like to be a fly on the wall when these decisions are made. Still looking at 97 wins and a division title.
Exhibition Game 1: 8-5 Phillies over Pirates
Free tickets from a co-worker? Sure, why not. So I ventured down to the old ball park with the ball & chain and her mom for what ended up being a "Top 5 Coldest Phillies Game" I've ever been to. The atmosphere was about what could be expected from a crowd of One Third Boy/Girl Scouts, One Third Drunk College Kids, and One Third die hards with nothing better to do on a Tuesday night. But of course, I have plenty of observations of my own...
- The Red Phanatic... I don't really get it. Aside from the "Paint the Town Red" promotion, it seems kind of out of place.
- Beers went up... I think. As I recall, your standard Miller and Coors lights were $6.75 last year and Aluminum Budweiser products were $7.00 each. They're $.50 higher now. I know the cost of a heater definitely went up! Your welcome, Cliff Lee!
- The new scoreboard is glorious. It's laughable how much better it is. The crew has a few kinks to work out (including misspelling the team name as "Pillies" once), but I think it's a huge upgrade. It was hard to watch the game with so much going on on the scoreboard.
- Seeing the stadium after a nice off-season bath was refreshing. No gum stuck to Ashburn Alley and no urine on the bathroom floor... at least until the 6th inning.
- The Phils looked pretty runner-ish last night. They didn't net too many SBs, but they sure made Ross Ohlendorf work. Rollins, Victorino, and Castillo will all need to swipe some bags for this team to be successful in 2011.
- Ben Francisco is dialed in right now. I'm one who believes in the healing powers of one Charlie Manuel. His ability to fix swings is well documented, so don't be terribly surprised when Jayson Werth is an afterthought by the end of June.
- Oh, Hi Chooch!
- I would say that this year's crop of Phillies Ball Girls is not the best. I saw a few bad fielding errors and when they played the famous "...Will Be Ejected!" video, there wasn't a looker in the bunch.
- The place cleared out in the 6th when most of the Phillies starters left the game. They advertised 42,000+ in attendance which still doesn't surprise me.
- Dare I say that one of my predictions is looking promising? All throughout the spring, the Phillies have been looking like a small ball team. Last night was no exception with RBI via single aplenty.
- If a Bell rings and no one is there to hear it, does it really make a sound?
March 29, 2011
Phils Spicing Up the On-Deck Series
First, that's a pretty sweet SI cover. Hard to believe that up until about 3 years ago, the Phillies had only graced the cover of SI about a half dozen times. I'm struggling to find the info to back that up so you'll just have to take my word on it... 2nd year in a row for Doc.
Anyway, I'm surprisingly excited about tonight's game. A co-worker handed me some pretty nice seats for free. If you don't have a set of your own, a cool 89 cents should get you in the gate. What makes this on-deck series so special?
I don't really know what that means, though it's been suggested that certain active and former players may be meandering around the concourse doing a little meet and greet with the fans. I wouldn't mind rubbing elbows with a few Phils while standing in line for crab fries."The Phillies On-Deck Series features a spring-training like atmosphere filled with plenty of prizes and surprises! Both games include a mini-fan appreciation day, unique player and alumni interactions with fans, merchandise specials, entertainment, and more!"
Other things to look forward to:
- Roy Oswalt throws today. I'd expect to see him stretched out for about 5 innings.
- Luis Castillo will almost certainly see significant playing time.
- New video board and 800+ new TVs.
- New food stands.
- Complete remodel to the Majestic Store.
March 28, 2011
Lunch Time Link Dump
It's so nice to be on the home stretch of Spring Training. As I type this, the Phils are wrapping up their final Grapefruit League game and hopping a plane north where they'll face the Pirates for a couple of exhibition games. I have tickets for tomorrow night, so I'll be sure to give a full scouting report as to how Michael Stutes and Luis Castillo are looking! Tickets can be had for less than $1 each, haha!
- A ridiculous article I read over the weekend that seems to suggest Joey Votto held the Reds down last year. Okay, so it doesn't say that directly, but it does endlessly point out the fact that the Yankees had a better win percentage with Brett Gardner in the lineup than Derek Jeter, and that Josh Hamilton had a worse winning percentage than David Murphy and a whole host of his teammates. I think the article lacks any credibility at all and I really expect better from the NY Times. To Create a Winner, You Have to Find Winners? No, you just have to find good baseball players. All the stats in the world aren't going to convince me that Carlos Pena's .196 batting average and 158 strikeouts were somehow related to the fact that his team was 22 games over .500 with him in the lineup.
- The Jayson Werth Baseball card conspiracy. It's a little humorous, but also incredibly common. It's common knowledge that Topps has become lazy with their card styling. And they get away with it because of the stupid agreement between MLB and Topps that basically eliminates any competition in the collectible card Market.Upper Deck still produces cards through an agreement with the MLBPA, but they can't include any team or league logos. It's pretty much ruined baseball cards for me in the past few years. Give me the days of ridiculous baseball poses.
- Speaking of cards... While looking for examples of other crappy cards, I found a whole blog dedicated to funny cards. 1) Why were eyeglasses go ridiculous looking in the 80s-90s? 2) If you have a really ridiculous name like "Dick Harter," why don't you change it before going into a profession that is going to put your name all over thousands of pieces of cardboard?
- Courtesy of ThatBallsOuttaHere.com, I found another list that our great city of Philadelphia made it on: Angriest Cities. We come in at a disappointing #8 which doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me... How can we be the worst city in the country, but not angry? St. Petersburg is full of miserable old retired people, Las Vegas is full of dejected gamblers, and Dallas just watched their tax dollars fund a billion dollar football stadium... so none of them should count! We were doing angry before it was cool!
- The Buck Showalter interview in Men's Journal that broke last week was fantastic. Not only did he do a great job as the O's manager down the stretch last season, but now he has the audacity to call out Derek Jeter for jumping away from inside pitches and Theo Epstein for just tossing buckets of money at free agents and acting as if he's a baseball genius in the process. Nice work, Buck. We might have a job for you in 2 years!
- A new Bill James book that I'm sure is way too complex for most of us to wrap our minds around, but worth a read anyway. From what I've read, it sounds like it's mostly a collection of writings otherwise available on his website for individual purchase.
- A list of some of the more anonymous starters of the past decade. Some of these guys career lines make me think I still have a chance at playing in the bigs... you know, if this whole blogging thing doesn't take off...
- A new batch of guys you should be following on Twitter:
- @mlbdepthcharts - Up to date depth chart and roster info for all baseball teams.
- @PeteOrrFacts - A series of ridiculous, mostly false, facts about the Phillies utility guy.
- @BestPhilsBlogs - A compendium of retweets from some of the best local Phillies blogs. If you don't want to follow everyone individually, this is the one you need.
- @MatthewBerryTMR - The Talented Mr. Roto from ESPN whose Podcast has been entertaining me since January.
- @SultanofStat - Another ESPN fantasy guy with some good tidbits of info.
- @petzrawr - Former contributor at TheFightins.com is just as entertaining on twitter.
- @closernews - Exactly what it says. Up to the minute info on all MLB closer situations.
March 25, 2011
On Why Barry Bonds is the Greatest Baseball Player of All Time...
Here's something to chew on over the weekend...
I made note of it the other day in a blurb about a link, and immediately got hit up on facebook by a friend refuting my claim that Barry Bonds is the greatest baseball player of all time. Personally, I don't even think it's all that close of a contest, but I'm willing to humor a few points that detractors usually point out:
As a young player, he was a top of the lineup table-setter with solid power and a constant speed thread. He had terrific outfield range and a cannon for an arm. As he aged, he developed into a more patient hitter, compacted his swing and learned to drive the ball with his body. Over the course of his career, there is nothing that he didn't do to win ball games, and most of it was done before even a whisper of steroids were mentioned. He is #3 on the all-time Offensive WAR list, and #6 on the defensive list.
Was he a miserable man and likely a pain in the locker room? Absolutely. Did he take steroids? Most likely. Is the government wasting a ridiculous amount of money on his trial? Absolutely. Are there better pure "hitters" in the history of the game? Ted Williams would probably say yes. Did he ever win a World Series? Sadly, no. But in the history of baseball, has there ever been a more complete player over the course of one career? No.
I made note of it the other day in a blurb about a link, and immediately got hit up on facebook by a friend refuting my claim that Barry Bonds is the greatest baseball player of all time. Personally, I don't even think it's all that close of a contest, but I'm willing to humor a few points that detractors usually point out:
- He's nothing compared to the all-time greats that did it without steroids: People who make this argument fail to remember that anabolic steroids were invented in the 1930s. The HR record that stood for decades was set by Roger Maris who hit 61 HRs in 1961. Yet he averaged less than half of that over his career and only twice reached 30 HRs in a season! Has anyone ever raised a red flag on him? It's also worth noting that the first black athlete didn't play until 1947. Sorry Babe Ruth... I'm not sure you'd have hit 714 HRs and had an ERA of 2.28 if you were playing against a sample of darker skinned athletes. If guys were taking boats from the Dominican and Central America at the rate they are now, he may not have even hit 600.
- He clearly did steroids in 2001 when he hit 73 HRs: Not so fast. It seems suspicious, I admit, but here's something to consider... Bonds hit 49 HRs in his first year at AT&T Park (or whatever it was called back then) in only 143 games. He previously played at the cavernous Candlestick Park. Candlestick was a park notorious for its swirling winds (When Willie Mays played there, it wasn't enclosed and the wind actually blew out to right). AT&T, on the other hand, has a right field porch that sits a measly 309 ft from home plate and winds that carry the ball out to right toward McCovey Cove. Isn't it possible that the reduction in the right field fence, the change in winds, and the change in style of play could account for some of those HRs? Pat Burrell hit 18 out of that place last year for crying out loud! Barry never hit as many HRs again, but he also never played in as many games over a season.
- Steroids! Steroids! Steroids! They're illegal: So? When has illegality stopped a baseball player from trying to gain an advantage? Mike Schmidt and your 1980 championship Phillies all pounded greenies like they were tic-tacs. Schmidt has even said that if steroids were handed to him, he probably would have considered taking them. How about other technological advancements since baseball first started? Maple baseball bats weren't sanctioned by MLB until 1997 (oddly right around the same time as the HR boom). Maple is considerably lighter than hickory or ash and has been proven to increase bat speed. Batting Gloves? Have you ever hit a foul ball of the handle of the bat without gloves and then tried to grip the bat for your next swing? They weren't used until 1964. But if we stick to medical enhancements, how about the plethora of over the counter nutritional supplements that are available? Mickey Mantle could have hit another dozen HRs a year if he could have taken B12 Vitamins to cure his wicked hangover after a night of heavy drinking. And shots... cortisone injections are a common occurrence in modern sports to reduce pain and swelling, but they cortisone wasn't marketed until the 50s and wasn't used as injection until the 60s. Lasic eye surgery didn't exist, Tommy John Surgery didn't exist, ACLs couldn't be repaired...
As a young player, he was a top of the lineup table-setter with solid power and a constant speed thread. He had terrific outfield range and a cannon for an arm. As he aged, he developed into a more patient hitter, compacted his swing and learned to drive the ball with his body. Over the course of his career, there is nothing that he didn't do to win ball games, and most of it was done before even a whisper of steroids were mentioned. He is #3 on the all-time Offensive WAR list, and #6 on the defensive list.
Was he a miserable man and likely a pain in the locker room? Absolutely. Did he take steroids? Most likely. Is the government wasting a ridiculous amount of money on his trial? Absolutely. Are there better pure "hitters" in the history of the game? Ted Williams would probably say yes. Did he ever win a World Series? Sadly, no. But in the history of baseball, has there ever been a more complete player over the course of one career? No.
Lidge to DL.
The world of fantasy closers shrunk one size today.
While not the most shocking news of the day considering he hadn't hit 86 MPH on the radar gun all spring, Brad Lidge going to the DL is sort of a big deal. Short of using Darren Daulton's time machine to kidnap 2008 Lidge, there really isn't a whole hell of a lot the Phillies can do to plug the 9th inning gap. Ryan Madson? Yeah, I guess he's the most likely option. While I love his stuff (especially those 98 mph fastballs that occasionally show up), he's had a handful of opportunities as a closer and let's just say they've been less than successful. He clearly doesn't like being jerked around between the 8th and 9th inning role. Jose Contreras? He looked great last year, but did he just catch lightning in a bottle?
Now if I was GM, this news would finally open the door to a guy who's been pegged "closer of the future" for about 3 years: Scott Mathieson. The guy has dominated hitters in the minors, but a pair of Tommy John surgeries have held him back. He's been average this spring with a stikeout per inning, but almost as many walks. His stuff is still electric and with the way the roster is shaping up, an injury to the bullpen is pretty much his only shot at making the team. It's a bit irrational, but I would leapfrog Mathieson over Madson and Contrereas right into the closers role to start the season.
In other news, check out Matthew Berry from ESPNs list of bold fantasy predictions for the season. I'm really curious where he got the name "Talented Mr. Roto" because some of these are so off the wall that you'd think he was just closing his eyes and picking numbers out of a hat for stats.
While not the most shocking news of the day considering he hadn't hit 86 MPH on the radar gun all spring, Brad Lidge going to the DL is sort of a big deal. Short of using Darren Daulton's time machine to kidnap 2008 Lidge, there really isn't a whole hell of a lot the Phillies can do to plug the 9th inning gap. Ryan Madson? Yeah, I guess he's the most likely option. While I love his stuff (especially those 98 mph fastballs that occasionally show up), he's had a handful of opportunities as a closer and let's just say they've been less than successful. He clearly doesn't like being jerked around between the 8th and 9th inning role. Jose Contreras? He looked great last year, but did he just catch lightning in a bottle?
Now if I was GM, this news would finally open the door to a guy who's been pegged "closer of the future" for about 3 years: Scott Mathieson. The guy has dominated hitters in the minors, but a pair of Tommy John surgeries have held him back. He's been average this spring with a stikeout per inning, but almost as many walks. His stuff is still electric and with the way the roster is shaping up, an injury to the bullpen is pretty much his only shot at making the team. It's a bit irrational, but I would leapfrog Mathieson over Madson and Contrereas right into the closers role to start the season.
In other news, check out Matthew Berry from ESPNs list of bold fantasy predictions for the season. I'm really curious where he got the name "Talented Mr. Roto" because some of these are so off the wall that you'd think he was just closing his eyes and picking numbers out of a hat for stats.
March 24, 2011
DST Exclusive: Chase Utley to Start Season on DL!
Wait, it doesn't count as exclusive if 100 beat writers and 35 other blogs beat me to the punch? I'm sure there's at least someone out there that hasn't heard the news yet... no? Damn.
Regardless, Utley took some hacks in the cage today, but apparently wasn't available for reporters. When asked about the likelihood of Utley starting the season on the DL, Ruben Amaro replied: "I would think so. I haven't seen him on the field yet and we're a week away."
Using my handy-dandy Ruben Amaro To English translator, that's a sure thing.
Still, no reason to panic.
As I've been telling friends recently, 97 games is still my prediction for the W column.Why? As Phillies Nation originally pointed out, take a look at the 2011 WAR projections from Fangraphs...
WAR, for those who don't know, stands for Wins Above Replacement. What it means is that in 2011, Jayson Werth is expected to be worth 4.2 more wins over the course of a season than a minor league replacement level player would be. Replacement level players are those who are worth 0 wins. Oddly enough, there are guys in the majors who are actually worth negative wins for their team. The Phillies have employed more than a handful...
Simply put, a full season of Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee is more than enough to balance out the loss of those they respectively replaced, Jayson Werth and half a season of Chase Utley. In fact, an even trade of the 4 positions yeilds the Phillies a 3 game improvement over last season.Since there are no predictions for Jamie Moyer or John Mayberry, I just used their 2010 numbers. For the new RF position, I simply averaged their collective WAR. For my prediction of 97 wins, I'm giving the rest of the team a 3.5 win downward curve (while at the same time I think guys like Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins are going to have better seasons than their 2010).
It's quick and dirty math and they're all optimistic figures of course, but what's wrong with a little optimism with the first game still more than a week away?
Regardless, Utley took some hacks in the cage today, but apparently wasn't available for reporters. When asked about the likelihood of Utley starting the season on the DL, Ruben Amaro replied: "I would think so. I haven't seen him on the field yet and we're a week away."
Using my handy-dandy Ruben Amaro To English translator, that's a sure thing.
Still, no reason to panic.
As I've been telling friends recently, 97 games is still my prediction for the W column.Why? As Phillies Nation originally pointed out, take a look at the 2011 WAR projections from Fangraphs...
WAR, for those who don't know, stands for Wins Above Replacement. What it means is that in 2011, Jayson Werth is expected to be worth 4.2 more wins over the course of a season than a minor league replacement level player would be. Replacement level players are those who are worth 0 wins. Oddly enough, there are guys in the majors who are actually worth negative wins for their team. The Phillies have employed more than a handful...
Simply put, a full season of Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee is more than enough to balance out the loss of those they respectively replaced, Jayson Werth and half a season of Chase Utley. In fact, an even trade of the 4 positions yeilds the Phillies a 3 game improvement over last season.Since there are no predictions for Jamie Moyer or John Mayberry, I just used their 2010 numbers. For the new RF position, I simply averaged their collective WAR. For my prediction of 97 wins, I'm giving the rest of the team a 3.5 win downward curve (while at the same time I think guys like Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins are going to have better seasons than their 2010).
It's quick and dirty math and they're all optimistic figures of course, but what's wrong with a little optimism with the first game still more than a week away?
Breakfast Time Link Dump!
- In a week when Phillies fans were accused of being the worst sports fans in America by Gentlemen's Quarterly, they were also named #1 in Fan Loyalty. Stick to what you know GQ; ascots and designer cologne. Leave the lists to people who actually conduct research.
- MLB put out the list of Top 20 Jersey sales for 2010. The Cliff Lee sales refer to his combined Mariner and Ranger sales, but you can expect his ranking for 2011 will be even higher with Phillies fans. Four current Phillies made the list, with three of them in the top five.
- Forbes Valuation for all baseball teams. The Yankees are obviously number 1, but their revenue/fan number is actually below the Red Sox. It pays to be from the biggest city in the US. There is enough information here for me to look through for months. Did you know you could build 3 Citizens Bank Parks for the cost of Yankee Stadium? True story. I'll be examining some of these numbers further in a later post...
- Statistical analysis of BASEketball from Deadspin. A movie well ahead of it's time...
- Fellas, get your ladies some overpriced, less than clever Phillies gear from Victoria's Secret. They've expanded their line this year!!! $36.50 for a T-shirt sounds about right... "it's soooooooo cute!"
- ESPN teamed with Tommy Hillfiger to bastardize the 4 most popular jerseys in sports. Personally I like it when teams change jerseys. I liked it when the Cowboys started sporting white shoulders. But theses styles are all a popped collar away from being MTV's Rock N' Jock uniforms.
- In "Complete Waste of our Tax Dollars" news, the Barry Bonds perjury trial is underway. I would love to see what the tab is once this whole thing is over with. The prosecution is really marching out a dog and pony show with a cast of questionable characters claiming they once witnessed Bonds and an object that looked like a syringe in the same zip code. I've gone on record more than once as saying that Barry Bonds is the greatest baseball player ever. Please, disagree... All the muscles in the world didn't help Barry Bonds hit .339 as a 35-39 year old.
- Logan Morrison of the Marlins is quickly becoming a Twitter sensation. Check him out... he's already cowering in fear of the R2C2 Monster!
March 23, 2011
Wait, we signed who?
No, I haven't been wallowing in self pity over my first round loss in ThePhield or hiding under a rock the past three days. In fact, I've been in a place the locals call "Baseball Heaven". Though, unless you're thing is a car full of sloppy looking Latino chicks flashing you on the highway at midnight (yes, that happened), I don't exactly consider St. Louis heavenly. Why a city would plop a beautiful stadium in the Midwest equivalent of Camden is beyond me, but I digress...
So, Luis Castillo, huh? We're going to replace a top three second baseman with a castoff from our enemy who can't make it to his first game on time. More than a bit of a head-scratcher to me, but maybe that's why I build houses for a living instead of running baseball teams. There's pros and cons and at the end of the day it's a move that's worth trying, but that doesn't mean I agree with it.
First, the good... he's a three time All Star and Gold Glover who pokes singles like they're going out of style and has stolen a bunch of bases in his career and has put up respectable numbers as recently as 2009 and only signed a minor league deal worth a few pennies. He's definitely a small ball player which was one of my 2011 predictions.
That's all I got for the good.
The bad... well, I'm going to need bullet points for this one
So, Luis Castillo, huh? We're going to replace a top three second baseman with a castoff from our enemy who can't make it to his first game on time. More than a bit of a head-scratcher to me, but maybe that's why I build houses for a living instead of running baseball teams. There's pros and cons and at the end of the day it's a move that's worth trying, but that doesn't mean I agree with it.
First, the good... he's a three time All Star and Gold Glover who pokes singles like they're going out of style and has stolen a bunch of bases in his career and has put up respectable numbers as recently as 2009 and only signed a minor league deal worth a few pennies. He's definitely a small ball player which was one of my 2011 predictions.
That's all I got for the good.
The bad... well, I'm going to need bullet points for this one
- He's 35 years old. We're already the oldest team in the majors and he shifts the curve further in the wrong direction. He's already started to show that there's not much left in the tank...
- Remember all those reasons I said Lastings Milledge might be a good fit? Those are the same reasons why Luis Castillo is not. There's a difference between a 26 year old with an attitude problem and a 35 year old. Castillo is proof that a Leopard cannot change his spots and has had more than his share of 2nd chances.
- Number 1 is retired in Philadelphia.
- He has zero pop. That was acceptable when he was a 62 SB threat. That's no going to happen at his age.
- His 2010 was dreadful. Wilson Valdez out-performed him in just about every category. His season ending "bruised" heel was the equivalent to putting an injured horse out of its misery.
- He was cut by the Mets. Seriously. If the welfare bound Mets are willing to swallow $6M and let him walk away in favor of three guys who aren't even a blip on anyone's radar, what value does he really have?
- His signing takes away opportunities from guys who have done everything right this spring. I know how meaningless ST is to most people, but Josh Barfield, Wilson Valdez, and Delwyn Young have had impressive springs. These three guys have more to lose than Castillo and are simply more hungry for a job.
Guest Blogging on ThatBallsOuttaHere.com!
If you haven't had a chance, I ask that you check out my guest blog post on ThatBallsOuttaHere.com. It's a pretty comical up and coming site that churns out material at a rate that makes me wonder if Justin Klugh has a real job... Nevertheless, the job market's loss is our gain! Be sure to check out his other work and keep the two of us on your radar as we will one day rule the blog world with iron fists!
March 22, 2011
Pop's Fantasy Baseball Draft Review
I came into the day with a solid plan, and like anyone would, I was forced to throw it all away when I realized I had the last pick of the draft. But in all honesty, my train left the tracks long before that. Having to run a draft board and answer questions/inform the masses is way more work than a fantasy manager should have to do. I'm 100% certain that from now on, I need to hire out Vanna White to cross off names and turn letters. I spent so much time pealing stickers and arguing with my uncles over imaginary rules that I didn't really have the chance to absorb the early-middle rounds the way I would have liked to. Crossing guys off my own draft sheet was all but impossible. Nevertheless, I righted the ship midway through and feel as though I got great value for every dollar I spent. I have a few extra bucks to play with, which should make my question marks easily fixable once rosters are finalized and things get rolling along. So here's a summary of how things went...
Keeper: Mark Teixeira, 1B
I struggled with this forever, but had I not kept Tex, I would have ended up with picks 11, 12, 13 and if he was still available, I probably would have grabbed him in there anyway. His value dropped from last year because of a putrid first two months and while he's a notoriously slow starter, he'll never bat below the Mendoza line for an extended period of time like that again. I think A-Rod is on the decline and I think Robinson Cano peaked last year so I expect Tex to carry a very heavy load for NY.
Round 1 - 11th Overall - Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
It can be argued that this was really a 21st overall pick since all but one owner went with a keeper, but either way I backed my way into this pick. I was hoping for Longoria to fall that far, but with the him and the top 3 outfielders off the board, this was a no brainer. 3rd Base is Longoria, Zimmerman, Wright, A-Rod, Bautista and a whole lot of garbage. Considering BadBoysofSummer snagged both Wright and Bautista and A-Rod went undrafted, there's a whole lot of garbage owned. Jason Werth will protect Zimm in the same way Dunn did. At his age, its nice to think you have an established top tier 3rd baseman who still hasn't reached his peak.
Round 2 - 13th Overall - Shin Soo Choo, OF
It sounds like a reach, but he was really the player I targeted more than anyone else in the draft. Choo is a top 5 tool player in the game at a time when those guys are extremely lacking. I would have taken Braun and Cargo over him, but probably no one else at their value. He'll flirt with .300/30/30/100/100 and probably reach at least three of those milestones. Find me another guy with those likely stats under $30.
Round 3 - 34th Overall - Jason Heyward, OF
I drafted him last year, but got too gun shy during his early season slump. But I wasn't making that mistake this year. The price was a little high, but the way I had things set up, I could afford it with his upside. This kid is the real deal and his inner Ken Griffey Jr. is going to show. I expect him to push 30 home runs with 20 SBs, but his patience at the plate is what really gets me excited. The Braves are going to score runs this year and with a healthy team and no more 1st year jitters, Heyward should score a ton and knock a ton in.
Round 4 - 35th Overall - Gordon Beckham, 2B
I had to save a few dollars here for peace of mind and for $14, no middle infielder seemed to have more bang for his buck than Beckham. He struggled early last year but caught fire down the stretch. He's done nothing but continue that momentum during the spring. With Chase Utley going down, there's an opening amongst elite 2nd baseman and I think Beckham has a shot at it. He's showing nice pop and he'll bat 2nd in front of Adam Dunn.
Round 5 - 56th Overall - Carlos Santana, C
I tried to grab him when he came up from the minors last season but was foiled by my lack of a smart phone and a buddy who would push his own grandmother down a flight of stairs to steal a player from someone. The knee injury kept his numbers in check, but he looks fine this spring. This was a stray from my strategy, but my value catchers actually started dropping off the board before this pick. When I lost out on Matt Weiters for what would have been my 3rd straight year of disappointment, I knew I had to look there soon. Santana at 23 wasn't great value, but I'll cross my fingers and hope for the upside.
Round 6 - 57th Overall - Brian Matusz, SP
I would have preferred to wait longer for him, but $8-12 pitchers were falling off the board quickly right around here. My notes said wait until after the 5th round to get a pitcher and that's exactly what I did. Matusz is a great talent on a not so great team. But the Orioles are certainly a lot better than last year. 15 wins is probably his upside, but the value is there all day long at $10.
Round 7 - 78th Overall - Jonathan Papelbon, RP
I couldn't believe how quickly relief pitchers went. Such a strange league. I really didn't want one here, but Papelbon has nice value. He has been vulnerable the last 2 years, but he has two huge things going for him. 1) He plays for the Red Sox who will have plenty of opportunities for saves and Terry Francona has made it abundantly clear that he is their guy. 2) If he happens to get traded and they give the job to Bard, he'll go to another team as the closer. The Red Sox won't trade him away to be a middle reliever somewhere. His price is less than the elite, but he'll probably put up a higher save total than most of them because the Sox will win so many games.
Round 8 - 79th Overall - Colby Lewis, SP
Probably a round early, but this was another starting pitcher I had circled, highlighted, and underlined. The Rangers are still a great team and Lewis was their best pitcher last post season. With Cliff Lee out of town, he's now even more important. For his price, I like the high innings he's going to throw and the strikeouts he'll pick up. 15 wins is likely as well.
Round 9 - 100th Overall - Cliff Pennington, SS
Tsuyoshi Nishioka was my target for this position from the start and I missed him by 1 pick two rounds earlier. I really need to hide my notes in my own house. But I quickly moved on. I have a couple of plan B's here should things get hairy, but if $2 can net me 30 steals like he got last year, he can bat .250 all day. All the reports I read had him better than that, but the power numbers are extremely lacking. He might be my biggest surprise, or the first guy I drop.
Round 10 - 101st Overall - Johnny Venters, RP
At this point, every full time closer under $20 was off the board and I didn't have $20 anyway. For a guy who's still looking at a closer by committee job, Venters is a steal. He pitches a ton of innings, gets strikeouts by the bunches and keeps his peripheral numbers low. Everything I've read indicates that he's had a better spring than the ridiculously overpriced Craig Kimbrel so I'm holding out hope he wins the job outright. If not, I like him as a placeholder that will keep my numbers low while I lie in the grass waiting on a closer to pounce on.
Round 11 - 122nd Overall - Kyle Drabek, SP
A complete flier here, but for $1 I love the upside. He pitches in the AL East which seems to chew up and spit out most rookies, but the pedigree is there and he's worked through every level of the game fixing his mistakes and improving. His price makes him easily worth the look for the first month of the season. If he falters, there will be 10 other guys with $1 values who are worth owning. I can think of three right now I'm going to keep an eye on...
Round 12 - 123rd Overall - Jose Tabata, OF
At this point I had three names in mind: Tabata, Ryan Raburn, or Mike Morse. Raburn was my leading choice but had two things going against him... a lot of stiff competition, and last of help in any one major category. Mike Morse was the cheapest option and has really wowed some scouts since mid last season but seemed like too much of a risk. Tabata is going to bat lead off for the Pirates and will steal a bunch of bases. One magazine I read called him Shane Victorino-lite. He left me with a few dollars left under the cap which proved useful.
Players I wanted and missed...
Final Grade: B+
I did the best I could with what I had to work with. I hit most of my key points, but following ADPs and checklists was impossible when running the draft as well. Wish me luck!
Keeper: Mark Teixeira, 1B
I struggled with this forever, but had I not kept Tex, I would have ended up with picks 11, 12, 13 and if he was still available, I probably would have grabbed him in there anyway. His value dropped from last year because of a putrid first two months and while he's a notoriously slow starter, he'll never bat below the Mendoza line for an extended period of time like that again. I think A-Rod is on the decline and I think Robinson Cano peaked last year so I expect Tex to carry a very heavy load for NY.
Round 1 - 11th Overall - Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
It can be argued that this was really a 21st overall pick since all but one owner went with a keeper, but either way I backed my way into this pick. I was hoping for Longoria to fall that far, but with the him and the top 3 outfielders off the board, this was a no brainer. 3rd Base is Longoria, Zimmerman, Wright, A-Rod, Bautista and a whole lot of garbage. Considering BadBoysofSummer snagged both Wright and Bautista and A-Rod went undrafted, there's a whole lot of garbage owned. Jason Werth will protect Zimm in the same way Dunn did. At his age, its nice to think you have an established top tier 3rd baseman who still hasn't reached his peak.
Round 2 - 13th Overall - Shin Soo Choo, OF
It sounds like a reach, but he was really the player I targeted more than anyone else in the draft. Choo is a top 5 tool player in the game at a time when those guys are extremely lacking. I would have taken Braun and Cargo over him, but probably no one else at their value. He'll flirt with .300/30/30/100/100 and probably reach at least three of those milestones. Find me another guy with those likely stats under $30.
Round 3 - 34th Overall - Jason Heyward, OF
I drafted him last year, but got too gun shy during his early season slump. But I wasn't making that mistake this year. The price was a little high, but the way I had things set up, I could afford it with his upside. This kid is the real deal and his inner Ken Griffey Jr. is going to show. I expect him to push 30 home runs with 20 SBs, but his patience at the plate is what really gets me excited. The Braves are going to score runs this year and with a healthy team and no more 1st year jitters, Heyward should score a ton and knock a ton in.
Round 4 - 35th Overall - Gordon Beckham, 2B
I had to save a few dollars here for peace of mind and for $14, no middle infielder seemed to have more bang for his buck than Beckham. He struggled early last year but caught fire down the stretch. He's done nothing but continue that momentum during the spring. With Chase Utley going down, there's an opening amongst elite 2nd baseman and I think Beckham has a shot at it. He's showing nice pop and he'll bat 2nd in front of Adam Dunn.
Round 5 - 56th Overall - Carlos Santana, C
I tried to grab him when he came up from the minors last season but was foiled by my lack of a smart phone and a buddy who would push his own grandmother down a flight of stairs to steal a player from someone. The knee injury kept his numbers in check, but he looks fine this spring. This was a stray from my strategy, but my value catchers actually started dropping off the board before this pick. When I lost out on Matt Weiters for what would have been my 3rd straight year of disappointment, I knew I had to look there soon. Santana at 23 wasn't great value, but I'll cross my fingers and hope for the upside.
Round 6 - 57th Overall - Brian Matusz, SP
I would have preferred to wait longer for him, but $8-12 pitchers were falling off the board quickly right around here. My notes said wait until after the 5th round to get a pitcher and that's exactly what I did. Matusz is a great talent on a not so great team. But the Orioles are certainly a lot better than last year. 15 wins is probably his upside, but the value is there all day long at $10.
Round 7 - 78th Overall - Jonathan Papelbon, RP
I couldn't believe how quickly relief pitchers went. Such a strange league. I really didn't want one here, but Papelbon has nice value. He has been vulnerable the last 2 years, but he has two huge things going for him. 1) He plays for the Red Sox who will have plenty of opportunities for saves and Terry Francona has made it abundantly clear that he is their guy. 2) If he happens to get traded and they give the job to Bard, he'll go to another team as the closer. The Red Sox won't trade him away to be a middle reliever somewhere. His price is less than the elite, but he'll probably put up a higher save total than most of them because the Sox will win so many games.
Round 8 - 79th Overall - Colby Lewis, SP
Probably a round early, but this was another starting pitcher I had circled, highlighted, and underlined. The Rangers are still a great team and Lewis was their best pitcher last post season. With Cliff Lee out of town, he's now even more important. For his price, I like the high innings he's going to throw and the strikeouts he'll pick up. 15 wins is likely as well.
Round 9 - 100th Overall - Cliff Pennington, SS
Tsuyoshi Nishioka was my target for this position from the start and I missed him by 1 pick two rounds earlier. I really need to hide my notes in my own house. But I quickly moved on. I have a couple of plan B's here should things get hairy, but if $2 can net me 30 steals like he got last year, he can bat .250 all day. All the reports I read had him better than that, but the power numbers are extremely lacking. He might be my biggest surprise, or the first guy I drop.
Round 10 - 101st Overall - Johnny Venters, RP
At this point, every full time closer under $20 was off the board and I didn't have $20 anyway. For a guy who's still looking at a closer by committee job, Venters is a steal. He pitches a ton of innings, gets strikeouts by the bunches and keeps his peripheral numbers low. Everything I've read indicates that he's had a better spring than the ridiculously overpriced Craig Kimbrel so I'm holding out hope he wins the job outright. If not, I like him as a placeholder that will keep my numbers low while I lie in the grass waiting on a closer to pounce on.
Round 11 - 122nd Overall - Kyle Drabek, SP
A complete flier here, but for $1 I love the upside. He pitches in the AL East which seems to chew up and spit out most rookies, but the pedigree is there and he's worked through every level of the game fixing his mistakes and improving. His price makes him easily worth the look for the first month of the season. If he falters, there will be 10 other guys with $1 values who are worth owning. I can think of three right now I'm going to keep an eye on...
Round 12 - 123rd Overall - Jose Tabata, OF
At this point I had three names in mind: Tabata, Ryan Raburn, or Mike Morse. Raburn was my leading choice but had two things going against him... a lot of stiff competition, and last of help in any one major category. Mike Morse was the cheapest option and has really wowed some scouts since mid last season but seemed like too much of a risk. Tabata is going to bat lead off for the Pirates and will steal a bunch of bases. One magazine I read called him Shane Victorino-lite. He left me with a few dollars left under the cap which proved useful.
Players I wanted and missed...
- I really wanted to stack my outfield with 3 of the following: Gonzalez-Choo-McCutchen-Heyward-Bruce-Stubbs-Stanton in that order. I ended up with 2 of my top 4 and decided to wait on the 3rd. That move was a product of my draft position more than anything else.
- Tsuyoshi Nishioka intrigued me from the first time I read about him in January and I can't believe he hasn't been a bigger story. He's a lock to bat 2nd for the Twins and if he can get on base at the clip he has this spring, he should be big in 3 categories. As much as I like him, I could never have justified wasting a 7th round pick to get him. I was looking at him closer to round 10.
- Jeremy Hellickson and Leo Nunez were the only two pitchers I targeted and missed out on by a mile. There were some other guys I liked, but just couldn't bring myself to pay for. Closers are so hard to come by right now and a 2nd cheap closer would have been awesome. Saves may only be one category, but I've never seen a league won by someone who completely punts them.
- I did some math and if you take my team's 2010 numbers and plug them in the offensive rankings, I'm middle of the road in every category. And that's including three guys who had under 450 ABs and 2 other guys who had disappointing years. Add in mid season acquisitions and I should be pretty well rounded.
- Pitching wise, I like my chances of getting 190+ innings from all three of my starters. Wins and Ks will come from mid season moves. But I really wish I could have snagged a Kevin Gregg like player as a 2nd closer.
Final Grade: B+
I did the best I could with what I had to work with. I hit most of my key points, but following ADPs and checklists was impossible when running the draft as well. Wish me luck!
March 18, 2011
No More Tire Kicking!
There are three scenarios when it comes to kicking the tires on trades and waiver claims.
- The other team balks/The player wants too much and no deal gets done
- You manage to get a deal together, but the guy plays like Adam Eaton
- You manage to get a deal together and you get yourself a Pedro Martinez
While Michael Young is a nice option to plug the hole at 2nd base, he's like replacing a 2005 Honda Civic with a 2000 Jaguar XJ. It looks like a nicer car and it'll certainly get you more chicks, but it's expensive and really not practical should your other Jaguar come back from the repair shop. Plus the other owner doesn't really want to sell. Moving down the line you find Jon Jay who is the equivalent of trading in a 1999 Ford Explorer for a 2000. Sure, they may have fixed the kinks and that dreaded rollover problem, but is it really any better. Neither of them have gotten daily use so do you really know they aren't lemons? Why not stick with the one you have and avoid the messy paperwork? Lastly is Luis Castillo. Your late 90s Ford Taurus may not be the prettiest thing, but it gets the job done. It doesn't have much power under the hood, but damn is she reliable. Meanwhile your neighbor just threw his Camaro on the trash. He still has $6M worth of payments left on it, so even if you can have it for pennies, you have to be a little suspicious. It's a loud car that probably won't mix with your collection of professional, well oiled vehicles so you should probably leave it on the curb.
Let it be, lets roll into the season with Ben Francisco-John Mayberry & Wilson Valdez-Josh Barfield and see how it goes. Ruben should know better than anyone that a team can get to a World Series with a platoon in the outfield and middle infield (Incaviglia-Thompson & Morandini-Duncan). Leave the Hyundais and Kias on the lot and roll with what we already have.
Baseball Fandom Flowchart
Stolen from... well, I forget where I got it, but I saved it last week. I think it was a link from WithLeather.com. So if you need reference, go there and figure it out for yourself!
March 17, 2011
Your 2011 Phillies: Fantasy Baseball Outlook Part 1
C - Carlos Ruiz:
The guy had the best year of his career in 2010 and is priced so cheap in most leagues that he's tempting to snatch up. But as impressive as his clutch performance has been, it doesn't earn you extra fantasy points. Single digit HRs and 50 RBI are about the going rate for any catcher with a full time job. Chooch is certainly capable of repeating his 2010, but that still doesn't make him a viable option in anything but the deepest of mixed or NL only leagues.
1B - Ryan Howard
I've gone back and forth almost a dozen times on my Ryan Howard opinion. First Base is an incredibly deep position where the difference between Adrian Gonzalez in round 2 and Justin Morneau in round 7 might not be all that much. But I have a feeling that Ryan Howard is about to find his stroke once again. His strikeout rate has dropped significantly over the last two years and his spring numbers suggest that he's putting good wood on the ball. Few of his counterparts work as hard as Howard at improving his flaws and as a guy who has been dropping down draft boards, 40 HR and 125+ RBI are starting to look like a real bargain after the 2nd round.
2B - Chase Utley
A month ago, he's the 2nd best second baseman in the game and being drafted in the first round. Now, I won him in an auction league for $12 last Friday. The knee is worrisome, but at middle infield spots, there isn't a plethora of other options better than Chase. It's still looking as if surgery is the less likely scenario and I'll predict 130 games for Chase this year. What can he possibly do in 130 games? Well in 2007 he hit .332, had 22 HRs, and 100+ Runs and RBI. A one legged Chase Utley is still capable of elite numbers for his position. While he should fall down a few rounds, he's worth it if his value is deflated enough.
SS - Jimmy Rollins
2007 Jimmy Rollins is dead. He'll never be a 30/30 guy again, and he'll never knock you in 90 runs. While some owners are likely to take a shot at him because the potential is still there for him to perform like a Jose Reyes, I'm going to tell you not to. You'll only be disappointed. While Jimmy has been regressing, the rest of the world has caught up to him. Shortstop isn't an incredibly deep position, but there are a handful of guys out there who will give you 75 R, 20SB, and 15HR which is about Jimmy's upside. Pass on Rollins and take a risk on Starlin Castro instead.
3B - Placido Polanco
Possibly the most scarce position in fantasy baseball this year, third basemen are hard to come by. After Longoria/Zimmerman/Arod/Bautista fall off the board, your options plummet. That still doesn't make Polanco a viable one. His position eligibility at 2nd base boosts his value as a middle infielder and his elbow injury isn't really anything that should concern you, but he is what he is. I love him on my real team, but wouldn't want him clogging up my fantasy team.
LF - Raul Ibanez
I'm one of the few guys who see some value here. Raul has a history of streaky behavior while in a Phillies uniform. But one thing that has been prevalent throughout his career is that a hot spring = a fast start to the season. Guess what? Raul is hitting the ball well this spring. Draft him and ride the wave until his first epic slump occurs. At the end of the year he'll put up the usual 25 HR, 85 RBI, .275 batting average but it will most certainly have its ups and downs.
CF - Shane Victorino
Power/Speed guys are hard to come by. But speed guys are becoming more prevalent. I'm not quite sure which category to put Victorino. 18HRs with 34SBs in 2010 puts him in the first category so if you think he's capable of a repeat, go for it. I still think he's a notch below guys like Andrew McCutchen and Shin-Soo-Choo, but if he can hit .280 and put up similar numbers to last year, he's worth a lot more than you might think.
RF - Ben Francisco
For the sake of this post, I'm assuming Ben Francisco is your starting RF for the entire season. He's likely going for dirt cheap in just about every league. While he's never had one particular year that jumps out at you, his 162 game career averages aren't all that bad. 18 HR and 12 SB are easily attainable, and 65 RBI are a low estimate. He'll likely start the season batting 5th which should give him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. Comparable to Jayson Werth? No, probably not. But most of the same tools are there. In a deep league, he's worth a flier.
The guy had the best year of his career in 2010 and is priced so cheap in most leagues that he's tempting to snatch up. But as impressive as his clutch performance has been, it doesn't earn you extra fantasy points. Single digit HRs and 50 RBI are about the going rate for any catcher with a full time job. Chooch is certainly capable of repeating his 2010, but that still doesn't make him a viable option in anything but the deepest of mixed or NL only leagues.
1B - Ryan Howard
I've gone back and forth almost a dozen times on my Ryan Howard opinion. First Base is an incredibly deep position where the difference between Adrian Gonzalez in round 2 and Justin Morneau in round 7 might not be all that much. But I have a feeling that Ryan Howard is about to find his stroke once again. His strikeout rate has dropped significantly over the last two years and his spring numbers suggest that he's putting good wood on the ball. Few of his counterparts work as hard as Howard at improving his flaws and as a guy who has been dropping down draft boards, 40 HR and 125+ RBI are starting to look like a real bargain after the 2nd round.
2B - Chase Utley
A month ago, he's the 2nd best second baseman in the game and being drafted in the first round. Now, I won him in an auction league for $12 last Friday. The knee is worrisome, but at middle infield spots, there isn't a plethora of other options better than Chase. It's still looking as if surgery is the less likely scenario and I'll predict 130 games for Chase this year. What can he possibly do in 130 games? Well in 2007 he hit .332, had 22 HRs, and 100+ Runs and RBI. A one legged Chase Utley is still capable of elite numbers for his position. While he should fall down a few rounds, he's worth it if his value is deflated enough.
SS - Jimmy Rollins
2007 Jimmy Rollins is dead. He'll never be a 30/30 guy again, and he'll never knock you in 90 runs. While some owners are likely to take a shot at him because the potential is still there for him to perform like a Jose Reyes, I'm going to tell you not to. You'll only be disappointed. While Jimmy has been regressing, the rest of the world has caught up to him. Shortstop isn't an incredibly deep position, but there are a handful of guys out there who will give you 75 R, 20SB, and 15HR which is about Jimmy's upside. Pass on Rollins and take a risk on Starlin Castro instead.
3B - Placido Polanco
Possibly the most scarce position in fantasy baseball this year, third basemen are hard to come by. After Longoria/Zimmerman/Arod/Bautista fall off the board, your options plummet. That still doesn't make Polanco a viable one. His position eligibility at 2nd base boosts his value as a middle infielder and his elbow injury isn't really anything that should concern you, but he is what he is. I love him on my real team, but wouldn't want him clogging up my fantasy team.
LF - Raul Ibanez
I'm one of the few guys who see some value here. Raul has a history of streaky behavior while in a Phillies uniform. But one thing that has been prevalent throughout his career is that a hot spring = a fast start to the season. Guess what? Raul is hitting the ball well this spring. Draft him and ride the wave until his first epic slump occurs. At the end of the year he'll put up the usual 25 HR, 85 RBI, .275 batting average but it will most certainly have its ups and downs.
CF - Shane Victorino
Power/Speed guys are hard to come by. But speed guys are becoming more prevalent. I'm not quite sure which category to put Victorino. 18HRs with 34SBs in 2010 puts him in the first category so if you think he's capable of a repeat, go for it. I still think he's a notch below guys like Andrew McCutchen and Shin-Soo-Choo, but if he can hit .280 and put up similar numbers to last year, he's worth a lot more than you might think.
RF - Ben Francisco
For the sake of this post, I'm assuming Ben Francisco is your starting RF for the entire season. He's likely going for dirt cheap in just about every league. While he's never had one particular year that jumps out at you, his 162 game career averages aren't all that bad. 18 HR and 12 SB are easily attainable, and 65 RBI are a low estimate. He'll likely start the season batting 5th which should give him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. Comparable to Jayson Werth? No, probably not. But most of the same tools are there. In a deep league, he's worth a flier.
The 12 Seed Upsetting The 5 Seed is a Tourney Rule!
I don't pretend to know or care the first thing about NCAA Basketball. There was that one year when Drexel only had like 7 losses and I thought I finally might get to experience the debauchery that I witness on ESPN, but alas we were snubbed (and proceeded to lose in the first round of the NIT instead). But as I'm browsing through the SI.com headlines tonight following a hard fought 5-4 victory by my hockey team, The Prom Kings, I couldn't help but stumble upon this gem of an article.
12 Seeds beating 5 Seeds. The Rule, not the exception.
So I've decided to take the same approach as Utah State Forward Tai Wesley... "My Seed is a slap in the face!" I don't get enough Comcast coverage because I'm from the east coast (of the Delaware)... The committee is giving more value to my crappy blog posts, than my good ones!
Actually, that's all a lie. I'm pretty honored to be included in this year's ThePhield. A 12 seed for a guy who's been around for a little over a month and is still trying to perfect the art of turning my incredibly witty sense of humor and charming character into coherent, typed thoughts. But like most 12 seeds, I enter the tournament with nothing to lose. I'm the plucky little start-up going toe to toe with a blog that has multiple contributors and alleged ties to Al Qaeda (* In fairness, I'm the only one making those allegations, but they could be true!).
So why should this #12 Seed win over a #5?
- I put in the hours... It's pushing 2AM right now and while the prime reason I'm not asleep is the earlier mentioned hockey game, I'm here blogging rather than watching reruns of Pawn Stars and American Pickers as I usually do at this hour. When was the last time PhilliesLongDrive.com posted at 2AM? Go ahead and look, I'll wait... I know right? Only two posts in the last month!
- My photoshop skills are on the incline... Years ago I was toying around with Photoshop to render hardwood flooring in houses and add shading to perspective drawings. Now, I combine Chase Utley with General Wesley Clary and add oversized cans of Bud Light to Brad Lidge's hand. It's only the beginning folks. My Photoshops will be far more offensive from here on out.
- Because the ThePhield needs fresh blood... The blog game has gotten a bit stale. Some of the big guys have closed up shop. Others have united with radio stations and cable channels to pocket a few dollars. Dropped Strike Three won't do either. Mostly because I never expect anyone from Comcast or ESPN will ever click on my site unless they were searching for some incredibly weird fetish porn. But also because I'm doing this for shits and giggles and not to make a buck. Even if no one reads my blog, it entertains the hell out of me.
March 16, 2011
I Make it Rain... Tickets!
2 Sets of 17 Game Plan B Tickets
2 Roy Oswalt Bobblehead
2 Placido Polanco Bobblehead
10 July 2nd @ Toronto
10 July 3rd @ Toronto
(Not Pictured) 2 July 22nd v. Giants
(Not Pictured) 40 September 24th @ Mets
In honor of Nate Dogg's passing, I had to fan them out "baller" style.
Lunch Time Link Dump
Another episode of Lunch Time Link Dump. Got some pretty cool news last night so I'm going to try to step up my game in the next few days:
- First and foremost... get your ass over to ThePhield to see the field of 64 greatest Philadelphia sports blogs. I'm a #12 seed up against PhilliesLongDrive.com, and while I don't expect to win, help me put up a good fight! The voting directions should be on the image! Get them in by 5pm Thursday!
- KELLERandGEORGE are a couple of jokers from PA who take a break from cow-tipping to do a somewhat listenable podcast. It's a nice mix of humor, sports, and pop culture.
- Not to steal their thunder, but Norm MacDonald will be hosting a sports related show on Comedy Central this spring. I've always thought he was hilarious and his take on sports is even better than his usual stuff. Who doesn't remember his schtick hosting the ESPYs that got him a bunch of dirty looks from Ken Griffey Jr. and no invite back?
- Check out your Grapefruit League leading Philadelphia Phillies! Those AAA guys are really raking down there!
- Exactly as I was saying about Albert Pujols. It's going to be tough for him to get $300M if the Yankees and Red Sox aren't interested in bidding.
- 16 Great Baseball books from the Huffington Post. I have about 5 of them in my collection and can vouch for Moneyball, Between the Numbers, and The Bill James Abstract as excellent choices.
- LOLMets. For the ridiculous sourpuss face that RA Dickey makes when he throws his knuckleball. And for sending out this incredibly lame email yesterday asking their fans to buy tickets to games in Philadelphia:
- (Hint, Sell out your own games first. We don't need your help packing the house. They don't expect to sell out their own games. I spoke to a chick last week about ordering 40 of them for a road trip in September.)
- There are about 30 reasons why the Rangers will keep Michael Young. It's not even a remote possibility, Phillies fans. Just forget about it. I'm guessing that Young still starts about 140 games this year for the Rangers.
- GQ does a lovely little piece on Derek Jeter. My favorite part: "His defensive range was so limited—by one measure, he placed last among shortstops for his overall contribution in the field—that when he won his fifth Gold Glove award, a post on a widely respected baseball Web site read simply "My head just exploded." Cue the Derek Jeter apologists...
March 15, 2011
DST Exclusive: The Real Reason Behind Brad Lidge's Biceps Soreness!
As far as I know, no one else is reporting this news, but I think it's fairly obvious why Brad Lidge is experiencing Bicep Soreness. Erin Express. I feel your pain, Brad. Two or three thousand curls of Green Bud Light had me hurting on Monday morning as well. If only Ruben Amaro was available to explain why my spreadsheet work was a little out of the zone.
100% Effort vs. Self Preservation
No, this isn't some stupid "Field of 64" style March Madness competition that you will find on just about every website the internet has to offer (seriously, I'll bet there's a porno field of 64. Go check.). This may come as a total surprise to you, but short white guys from the suburbs like myself don't typically care about college basketball. March is a glorious time for other reasons; I can finally put the snow shovel back into the rafters of my shed, I can pull the summer clothes down from the attic, and baseball is right around the corner. But this year, it seems as though the Phillies are what's driving people "mad."
Maybe my ears were clogged, but I could have sworn I heard radio callers suggesting that since the Phillies enter the 2011 season as the oldest team in baseball, they really need to start thinking about self preservation rather than the "all out" approach we're used to seeing. Somewhere in Las Vegas, Pete Rose is rolling over in his grave. What's that? Pete Rose is still alive? Maybe physically, but that man has been dead on the inside since 1989.
Alive Pete would be downright angry at the idea of self preservation! The guy played 24 years of baseball until the age of 45 and not once did he jog out a ground ball, reach lazily at a grounder in the hole, or jump out of the way of a pitch that could be taken in the hip and get him on base. And Pete spent 5 of his balls to the wall years in Philadelphia playing on the concrete surface of Veterans Stadium. What does he have to show for it? A lot of sore bones now that he's retired, but a hero's welcome every time he comes back to town.
The obvious focus of this battle of 100% Effort vs. Self Preservation is Chase Utley. He's adored by the working class Philadelphia area because he's shown nothing but hard work and selflessness while wearing the red pinstripes. He'll take a 95 MPH fastball in the ribs if it means moving Jimmy Rollins into scoring position. He'll slide at full speed if there's even a remote chance of breaking up another Raul Ibanez double play ball. And he'll sell out his body on each and every defensive play even if his increased range makes him error prone and therefore less likely to draw interest from the morons who vote on Gold Glove awards.
I mentioned in a piece last week that Chase Utley's injuries over the last 3-4 years are in no way related to one another. Are they the product of "balls to the wall" baseball? Absolutely. But I for one wouldn't want it any other way. That's the way professional athletes are supposed to play. If a 10 year old is told run out every infield grounder he hits, why should we expect something different from a guy who makes millions of dollars to play the same game? Chase is getting old, you say. He's 32. With modern medical Science, that's the equivalent to Pete Rose when he was 25. I feel bad for Chase, but Derek Jeter's knees aren't falling off and he's been known to dive head first into the stands. You'll never be able to tell guys like Utley, Jeter, or Rose to "take it easy" or "preserve yourself." Like Charlie Sheen, they only have one speed, one gear: Go! At the end of his current contract, Chase Utley will have made close to $90M dollars in his career. If his legs fall off, I'm pretty sure his savings and his MLB Pension will be enough to build him a bionic robocop style suit he can walk around in for the rest of his life while saving dogs. But until the day comes when he completely falls apart, keep doing your thing, Chase!
Maybe my ears were clogged, but I could have sworn I heard radio callers suggesting that since the Phillies enter the 2011 season as the oldest team in baseball, they really need to start thinking about self preservation rather than the "all out" approach we're used to seeing. Somewhere in Las Vegas, Pete Rose is rolling over in his grave. What's that? Pete Rose is still alive? Maybe physically, but that man has been dead on the inside since 1989.
Alive Pete would be downright angry at the idea of self preservation! The guy played 24 years of baseball until the age of 45 and not once did he jog out a ground ball, reach lazily at a grounder in the hole, or jump out of the way of a pitch that could be taken in the hip and get him on base. And Pete spent 5 of his balls to the wall years in Philadelphia playing on the concrete surface of Veterans Stadium. What does he have to show for it? A lot of sore bones now that he's retired, but a hero's welcome every time he comes back to town.
The obvious focus of this battle of 100% Effort vs. Self Preservation is Chase Utley. He's adored by the working class Philadelphia area because he's shown nothing but hard work and selflessness while wearing the red pinstripes. He'll take a 95 MPH fastball in the ribs if it means moving Jimmy Rollins into scoring position. He'll slide at full speed if there's even a remote chance of breaking up another Raul Ibanez double play ball. And he'll sell out his body on each and every defensive play even if his increased range makes him error prone and therefore less likely to draw interest from the morons who vote on Gold Glove awards.
I mentioned in a piece last week that Chase Utley's injuries over the last 3-4 years are in no way related to one another. Are they the product of "balls to the wall" baseball? Absolutely. But I for one wouldn't want it any other way. That's the way professional athletes are supposed to play. If a 10 year old is told run out every infield grounder he hits, why should we expect something different from a guy who makes millions of dollars to play the same game? Chase is getting old, you say. He's 32. With modern medical Science, that's the equivalent to Pete Rose when he was 25. I feel bad for Chase, but Derek Jeter's knees aren't falling off and he's been known to dive head first into the stands. You'll never be able to tell guys like Utley, Jeter, or Rose to "take it easy" or "preserve yourself." Like Charlie Sheen, they only have one speed, one gear: Go! At the end of his current contract, Chase Utley will have made close to $90M dollars in his career. If his legs fall off, I'm pretty sure his savings and his MLB Pension will be enough to build him a bionic robocop style suit he can walk around in for the rest of his life while saving dogs. But until the day comes when he completely falls apart, keep doing your thing, Chase!
March 14, 2011
I'm Still Alive... Despite my best efforts not to be.
Two days later and I'm still feeling the effects of Erin Express. Both physically and emotionally. It was a long day that began with two bottles of wine on Friday night and commenced with me leaving my group and wandering the city by myself much of Saturday. Needless to say, not my best decision.
Regular postings will continue tomorrow, as I'm still playing catch up with the world today!
March 11, 2011
Remembering When...
One of my fonder memories of a baseball game came with my Dad and my Grandfather in attendance. I was there just hoping to catch a few glimpses of Frank Thomas (Apparently I have a thing for large black men who play first base). We scored these tickets for a Wednesday night as General Admisison, but at the time we had an in with a a couple of dudes on the gate staff (an Uncle and another Grandfather), so we immediately scored some sweet seats down just above the overhang of the 2nd deck at the Vet.
The team was pretty bad, but the weather was even worse. Interleague Play was still only 5 or so years old and if I'm not mistaken, this was the first series the White Sox had been to town. Rain poured down on us for more than an hour delaying the start time. By the time it slowed to a point they could play, there were probably about 10,000 people left in attendance. Our sweet seats got even sweeter because we had pretty much free run of the park.
Admittedly, the game was pretty boring. Jeff Liefler hit one of his career 31 homeruns that night and noted juicer, Jeremy "The Wrong" Giambi had one of his very rare successes for the Phillies with a HR of his own. Otherwise, it was a pitchers duel. Vicente Padilla mowed down 7 including Frank Thomas, much to my dismay.
It was pushing midnight by the 9th inning ans my dad was getting pretty wrestles about leaving. We were drenched, sweating and miserable, but even at that age I knew you don't leave a tie game early! The White Sox scored 2 in the top of the 9th and things looked pretty bad. The crowd of 10,000 all but vanished and there were probably more concession workers left than fans. Naturally, I had use Baseball-Reference to confirm names and happenings, but as I remember it, Pat Burrell and Giambi got on base. Then Mike Lieberthal ripped a double to the wall. One run scored and as excited as I was, my dad's eyes were telling me you're walking home if you want to stay for extra innings. My grandfather might have already been asleep. 2nd and 3rd, 1 out and they walk our superstar first baseman, Travis Lee. A Tomas Perez single scored pinch runner Doug Glanville and it was a tie game with the bases loaded. Jason Michaels stepped to the plate and took the ball for a ride to the gap. Phils win on a walkoff!
Great finish to a game and great memories...
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